What do we make of LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray. Both have had a lot of good seasons (including last year), but both will be 29 years old on opening day. When should we start downgrading players for age?
We know that backs can be effective at 29 and 30. That’s common. But we also know that the very best seasons for running backs are more likely to occur around the ages of 26 and 27. These guys are past that now.
So I’ve put together a little mini study. I’ve gone through the previous seasons since 2000. I’ve identified all running backs who had at least three 1,000-yard seasons by the time they turned 28. Then I’ve checked how those running backs played the season they were 29.
But before I list the numbers, I’m breaking the guys into two groups.
I’ll start with players who not only met those requirements but also ran for 1,000-plus at the age of 28. (Just like McCoy and Murray). The vast majority of these guys, in theory, should have been among the first 10 running backs chosen in fantasy drafts.
There are 18 who meet the requirements. Two totally knocked it out of the park, putting up difference-maker numbers: Priest Holmes and Tiki Barber. Three others finished with around 1,500 total yards and 10-12 TDs, which is solid enough. Three others were pretty good, and then it starts tailing off.
Adrian Peterson’s on there, but recall that was the year he was suspended for most of the season after the bizarre child discipline incident.
A few other backs weren’t even playing at age 29, and I’m not listing them (including Ricky Williams, Robert Smith, Travis Henry, Willie Parker and others).
| 29-YEAR-OLD RUNNING BACKS (A LIST) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Run | Total | TD |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 690 | 1,420 | 2,110 | 27 |
| 2004 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 578 | 1,518 | 2,096 | 15 |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 426 | 1,110 | 1,536 | 12 |
| 2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 537 | 953 | 1,490 | 10 |
| 2012 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 234 | 1,214 | 1,448 | 10 |
| 2002 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 362 | 1,094 | 1,456 | 7 |
| 2007 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 204 | 1,222 | 1,426 | 7 |
| 2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 389 | 898 | 1,287 | 7 |
| 2012 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 321 | 1,042 | 1,363 | 4 |
| 2003 | Eddie George, Tenn. | 163 | 1,031 | 1,194 | 5 |
| 2008 | Jamal Lewis, Clev. | 178 | 1,002 | 1,180 | 4 |
| 2001 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 48 | 1,072 | 1,120 | 4 |
| 2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 48 | 896 | 944 | 7 |
| 2005 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 83 | 787 | 870 | 3 |
| 2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 80 | 417 | 497 | 3 |
| 2015 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 227 | 163 | 390 | 3 |
| 2012 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 97 | 248 | 345 | 1 |
| 2014 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 18 | 75 | 93 | 0 |
There are other backs with similar qualifications, but they’re a little different. With these 10, the players didn’t run for 1,000 yards when they were 28. So expectations were generally a little lower for these guys.
One really good one – Corey Dillon killing it for New England. Stephen Davis had a very good year for Carolina. Ahman Green and Willis McGahee were OK. Then things really start dropping off.
| 29-YEAR-OLD RUNNING BACKS (B LIST) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Run | Total | TD |
| 2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 103 | 1,635 | 1,738 | 13 |
| 2003 | Stephen Davis, Car. | 159 | 1,444 | 1,603 | 8 |
| 2006 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 373 | 1,059 | 1,432 | 6 |
| 2011 | Willis McGahee, Den. | 51 | 1,199 | 1,250 | 5 |
| 2015 | Chris Johnson, Ariz. | 58 | 814 | 872 | 3 |
| 2004 | Duce Staley, Pitt. | 55 | 830 | 885 | 1 |
| 2008 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 128 | 418 | 546 | 6 |
| 2010 | Clinton Portis, Wash. | 55 | 227 | 282 | 2 |
| 2014 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Oak. | 71 | 96 | 167 | 0 |
| 2016 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 14 | 40 | 54 | 1 |
So where does this leave us?
I think McCoy and Murray are good backs, but we’ve definitely seen their best ball. I don’t consider either to be a difference-maker type guy. Both are on teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year, and both are on rosters that include other capable running backs.
—Ian Allan