I posted the Mike Gillislee blurb the other day, and apologies for double dipping. But I believe he’s going to score a lot of touchdowns. A great offense, and I think he’s going to be the back they feature around the goal line.
Gillislee is their biggest back and has been a good short-yardage runner. That’s been established. But mostly it’s about the offense. The Patriots have probably the league’s best offense, and they’re not averse to ramming the ball down people’s throats. They’ve scored a league-high 90 rushing touchdowns over the last five years – 8 more than anyone else.
Some teams like to pass the ball near the goal line – Packers, Lions. But the Patriots tend to like to roll up the sleeves and punch people in the face in that part of the field.
Reviewing the numbers, I saw the Patriots had a league-high 18 running plays from the 1-yard line last year, helping LeGarrette Blount score a league-high 1-yard runs. That’s a big number, so I started looking into previous years. I made it back to 2012 before I found an offense with that many plays from the 1 – and it was also the Patriots.
New England, as it turns out, has run the ball at least 13 times in all but one of the last six years. The rest of the league combined has had only eight teams in the last six years run the ball that many times from the 1. That’s 8 out of a possible 248 teams (versus 5 out of 6 for New England).
MOST RUNNING PLAYS FROM THE 1-YARD LINE | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
2012 | New England | 19 | 0 | .00 | 10 |
2016 | New England | 18 | 10 | .56 | 11 |
2011 | New England | 17 | 7 | .41 | 8 |
2011 | Atlanta | 16 | 8 | .50 | 8 |
2011 | Carolina | 15 | 6 | .40 | 8 |
2013 | New England | 14 | 5 | .36 | 7 |
2016 | Buffalo | 14 | 6 | .43 | 6 |
2012 | Houston | 14 | 6 | .43 | 7 |
2015 | New England | 13 | 1 | .08 | 7 |
2015 | New Orleans | 13 | 8 | .62 | 8 |
2016 | New Orleans | 13 | 5 | .38 | 7 |
2016 | Oakland | 13 | 6 | .46 | 7 |
2011 | San Francisco | 13 | 1 | .08 | 5 |
So if you total them all up, the Patriots have run the ball 91 times from the 1-yard line in the last six years. That’s 33 more than any other team. And they have scored 48 touchdowns on 1-yard runs – 13 more than anyone else.
So yes, I’m figuring Mike Gillislee will score a bunch of rushing touchdowns.
RUNNING PLAYS AT THE 1-YARD LINE (2011-16) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
New England | 91 | 28 | .31 | 48 |
Atlanta | 58 | 11 | .19 | 23 |
Carolina | 57 | 16 | .28 | 35 |
Cincinnati | 57 | 20 | .35 | 30 |
Baltimore | 57 | 10 | .18 | 29 |
NY Giants | 56 | 20 | .36 | 33 |
New Orleans | 55 | 23 | .42 | 31 |
Detroit | 52 | 25 | .48 | 34 |
Philadelphia | 49 | 20 | .41 | 31 |
Denver | 48 | 13 | .27 | 29 |
Houston | 48 | 16 | .33 | 27 |
Oakland | 48 | 19 | .40 | 26 |
Chicago | 47 | 19 | .40 | 27 |
Arizona | 46 | 12 | .26 | 28 |
Pittsburgh | 46 | 10 | .22 | 24 |
San Francisco | 44 | 20 | .45 | 26 |
Jacksonville | 44 | 8 | .18 | 19 |
Miami | 43 | 12 | .28 | 25 |
Buffalo | 42 | 18 | .43 | 20 |
Washington | 41 | 18 | .44 | 26 |
San Diego | 40 | 13 | .33 | 21 |
Dallas | 38 | 12 | .32 | 27 |
Minnesota | 38 | 21 | .55 | 24 |
NY Jets | 38 | 19 | .50 | 23 |
Cleveland | 38 | 7 | .18 | 18 |
Tennessee | 36 | 10 | .28 | 21 |
Indianapolis | 36 | 13 | .36 | 18 |
Seattle | 35 | 6 | .17 | 16 |
Rams | 33 | 8 | .24 | 18 |
Green Bay | 32 | 13 | .41 | 20 |
Tampa Bay | 31 | 10 | .32 | 20 |
Kansas City | 27 | 7 | .26 | 14 |
—Ian Allan