Fantasy Index

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Factoid

First-round receivers

Wide receivers fly off the draft board early

Three wide receivers go in the top 10. That was a surprise, I think. It doesn’t happen often. And as I look at previous drafts, I’m confident that at least one of those picks will flame out.

With Corey Davis in Tennessee, he looks fine. He’s just got to put in the work and emerge, though. The Titans have Rishard Matthews, and he was really good in the second half of last year. Could be a while before Davis is outproducing him.

Similarly in San Diego, Mike Williams is big and has talent, but the Chargers have a bunch of other capable pass catchers. Keenan Allen has been good in the past. Travis Benjamin will chip in some big plays. The guy who was filling in for Allen last year, Tyrell Williams, is a good player. When (if ever) will the rookie climb to the top of that pile.

John Ross will score some long touchdowns, but he might never be a “No. 1 receiver”. They’ve still got A.J. Green, and he’s one of the very best. I don’t expect they’ll immediately kick their other receivers to the curb either (Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd).

Anyway, I got the previous drafts out. In the last 30 years, 38 other wide receivers have been selected with top-10 picks. Thirteen of those guys (about a third) in my opinion went on to have great careers – they were difference-making guys.

But 16 of those picks didn’t really pan out at all. I have a black dot next to those names. With all of those guys, they didn’t do well enough that if teams could back up the clock and re-draft, any of them would be selected in the first round. Some of these players have had long careers (Ted Ginn and Darrius Heyward-Bey, for example), but in hindsight none had any business being chosen in the first round.

The other nine are the tweener guys. They had brief success or some success. Maybe in hindsight some team would still choose them in the first round. Michael Westbrook and Braylon Edwards, for example, each had one really big season. Maybe they would have faired better in another city. Michael Crabtree, Keyshawn Johnson and Curtis Conway have caught plenty of balls. But none of the players are in this group are guys who should have been chosen in the top 10. (And these are were left in plain type, with neither bolding nor a black dot).

(I was torn, by the way, on how to list Amari Cooper. He's been solid thus far but doesn't look particularly likely to develop into a true superstar. He might be more like Keyshawn, Crabtree and Terry Glenn. But I'm in an optimistic mode and put him in bold.)

WIDE RECEIVERS SELECTED WITH TOP-10 PICKS
YearPkPlayerNoYardsAvgTD
19961Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ6384413.48
20072Calvin Johnson, Det.4875615.85
20032• Charles Rogers, Det.2224311.03
20053Braylon Edwards, Clev.3251216.03
20043Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.5878013.48
20033Andre Johnson, Hou.6697614.84
20154Amari Cooper, Oak.721,07014.96
20144Sammy Watkins, Buff.6598215.16
20114A.J. Green, Cin.651,05716.37
20004• Peter Warrick, Cin.5159211.67
19954Michael Westbrook, Wash.3452215.42
19924• Desmond Howard, Wash.3206.71
20125• Justin Blackmon, Jac.6486513.55
20116Julio Jones, Atl.5495917.88
19996Torry Holt, St.L.5278815.26
19886Tim Brown, Rdrs.4372516.97
20157• Kevin White, Chi.00.00
20147Mike Evans, T.B.681,05115.512
20097• Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.912413.81
20057• Troy Williamson, Minn.2437215.52
20047Roy Williams, Det.5481715.18
19977• Ike Hilliard, NYG24221.00
19967Terry Glenn, N.E.901,13212.66
19937Curtis Conway, Chi.1923112.22
19887Sterling Sharpe, G.B.5579114.41
20138• Tavon Austin, St.L.4041810.56
20018• David Terrell, Chi.3441512.24
20008Plaxico Burress, Pitt.2227312.40
19998David Boston, Ariz.4047311.82
19958Joey Galloway, Sea.671,03915.59
20079• Ted Ginn Jr., Mia.3442012.43
20049• Reggie Williams, Jac.272689.91
20019• Koren Robinson, Sea.3953613.71
200910Michael Crabtree, S.F.4862513.02
200510• Mike Williams, Det.2935012.11
200010• Travis Taylor, Balt.282769.93
199510• J.J. Stokes, S.F.3851713.64
199110Herman Moore, Det.1113512.30

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index