There was a saturation bombing of wide receivers in the third round. Eight were chosen, with a quarter of the leagues teams selecting a wide receiver in that round. Certainly a lot of these receivers will quietly exit the league in a couple of years, but how many of these players (if any) can be counted on to make much of an impact.
We can learn about the future by looking at the past.
In this century, 77 wide receivers previously have been selected in the third round. In that group, I see three who developed into what you might call “ballers” – true superstars who definitely should have been selected in the first round. Steve Smith, Emmanuel Sanders and T.Y. Hilton.
I see six others that I would call very good pros – not players who were ever considered one of the top half-dozen wide receivers in the league, but were solid, productive starters. I’m putting Mike Wallace, Eric Decker, Nate Burleson, Laveranues Coles, Darrell Jackson and Keenan Allen in this group.
And using an informal sniff test, I see 13 others that were at least successful enough that they at some point in time were on rosters in almost all fantasy leagues at times. Guys who either put up good numbers briefly or put up modest numbers over some period of time.
So that’s the general ballpark we’re looking at, I think. Very unlikely that anybody from this group develops into a Hilton-Smith type player. But with each of these selections, about a 10 percent chance that said player will develop into somebody along the lines of Nate Burleson or Eric Decker. That ain’t bad.
And about a 25 percent chance with each of these players that they at least perform well enough to regularly start, catch some balls and touchdowns and get signed to a second contract – think Brandon LaFell or Mohamed Sanu.
On this hodge-podge chart, you’re seeing all of the receivers selected in the third round in this century, and you’re seeing the best numbers they put up in any of their first three seasons. LaFell and Sanders didn’t have any good seasons in their first three, so you’re seeing some lesser numbers for them.
With the touchdowns, those include rushing and receiving scores. I wasn’t sure how to handle Ty Montgomery. He switched to running back during his second year. For him, you’re seeing his receiving stats, but with his 3 rushing touchdowns. But whatever, he looks like a nice pick for the Packers, and I’ve put him in bold.
I am presenting them in the order they were picked, with the more successful players in bold. Doesn’t seem to be a strong correlation between where guys were chosen and how successful they ended up being.
If I had to pick one of the 2017 third-rounders, I would go with Cooper Kupp. He played at Eastern Washington, so I’m more familiar with him. He caught a ton of balls there. That’s a smaller school, but Kupp also put up big numbers in all four of his games against Pac-12 schools – 8 TDs in those games. Kupp isn’t as flashy or athletic as Tavon Austin, but I think he has a much better sense of how to work the middle of the field and catch balls in traffic.
| BEST SEASONS FOR THIRD-ROUND RECEIVERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | School | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Points |
| 2003 | 65 | Kelley Washington, Cin. | 31 | 378 | 12.2 | 3 | 55.8 |
| 2000 | 66 | Ron Dugans, Cin. | 47 | 421 | 9.0 | 0 | 42.1 |
| 2005 | 68 | Courtney Roby, Tenn. | 21 | 289 | 13.8 | 1 | 34.9 |
| 2012 | 68 | DeVier Posey, Hou. | 15 | 155 | 10.3 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2017 | 69 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 69 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 8 | 114.4 |
| 2012 | 69 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 23 | 361 | 15.7 | 2 | 48.1 |
| 2000 | 69 | Dez White, Chi. | 51 | 656 | 12.9 | 4 | 89.6 |
| 2015 | 70 | Jaelen Strong, Hou. | 14 | 161 | 11.5 | 3 | 34.1 |
| 2008 | 70 | Earl Bennett, Chi. | 54 | 717 | 13.3 | 2 | 83.7 |
| 2000 | 70 | Chris Cole, Den. | 9 | 128 | 14.2 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2003 | 71 | Nate Burleson, Minn. | 68 | 1,006 | 14.8 | 10 | 160.6 |
| 2017 | 72 | • Taywan Taylor, Tenn. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2000 | 73 | Ron Dixon, NYG | 22 | 377 | 17.1 | 2 | 49.7 |
| 2007 | 73 | Jacoby Jones, Hou. | 27 | 437 | 16.2 | 6 | 79.7 |
| 2007 | 74 | Yamon Figurs, Balt. | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 2 | 15.6 |
| 2013 | 74 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 37 | 621 | 16.8 | 8 | 110.1 |
| 2001 | 74 | Steve Smith, Car. | 88 | 1,110 | 12.6 | 8 | 159.0 |
| 2003 | 74 | Kevin Curtis, St.L. | 60 | 801 | 13.4 | 7 | 122.1 |
| 2007 | 75 | Laurent Robinson, Atl. | 37 | 437 | 11.8 | 1 | 49.7 |
| 2007 | 76 | Jason Hill, S.F. | 30 | 317 | 10.6 | 2 | 43.7 |
| 2015 | 76 | Chris Conley, K.C. | 44 | 530 | 12.0 | 0 | 53.0 |
| 2013 | 76 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1,046 | 14.7 | 8 | 152.6 |
| 2001 | 77 | Marvin Minnis, K.C. | 33 | 511 | 15.5 | 1 | 57.1 |
| 2004 | 77 | Derrick Hamilton, S.F. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 |
| 2010 | 77 | Damian Williams, Tenn. | 45 | 592 | 13.2 | 5 | 89.2 |
| 2006 | 78 | Travis Wilson, Clev. | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 2013 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin, Buff. | 17 | 283 | 16.6 | 3 | 46.3 |
| 2011 | 78 | Austin Pettis, St.L. | 38 | 399 | 10.5 | 4 | 63.9 |
| 2000 | 78 | Laveranues Coles, NYJ | 89 | 1,264 | 14.2 | 5 | 156.4 |
| 2007 | 78 | James Jones, G.B. | 47 | 676 | 14.4 | 2 | 79.6 |
| 2010 | 78 | Brandon LaFell, Car. | 44 | 677 | 15.4 | 4 | 91.7 |
| 2004 | 78 | Bernard Berrian, Chi. | 51 | 775 | 15.2 | 6 | 113.5 |
| 2013 | 79 | Markus Wheaton, Pitt. | 44 | 749 | 17.0 | 5 | 104.9 |
| 2011 | 79 | Leonard Hankerson, Wash. | 38 | 543 | 14.3 | 3 | 72.3 |
| 2000 | 79 | JaJuan Dawson, Clev. | 22 | 281 | 12.8 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2007 | 79 | Mike Sims-Walker, Jac. | 63 | 869 | 13.8 | 7 | 128.9 |
| 2017 | 79 | • ArDarius Stewart, NYJ | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2007 | 80 | Paul Williams, Tenn. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | .7 |
| 2000 | 80 | Darrell Jackson, Sea. | 70 | 1,081 | 15.4 | 8 | 156.1 |
| 2008 | 81 | Early Doucet, Ariz. | 26 | 291 | 11.2 | 1 | 35.1 |
| 2011 | 82 | Vincent Brown, S.D. | 41 | 472 | 11.5 | 1 | 53.2 |
| 2004 | 82 | Devard Darling, Balt. | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | .5 |
| 2009 | 82 | Derrick Williams, Det. | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 2006 | 82 | Derek Hagan, Mia. | 29 | 373 | 12.9 | 2 | 49.3 |
| 2010 | 82 | Emmanuel Sanders, Pitt. | 44 | 626 | 14.2 | 1 | 68.6 |
| 2017 | 82 | • Carlos Henderson, Den. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2011 | 83 | Jerrel Jernigan, NYG | 29 | 329 | 11.3 | 2 | 44.9 |
| 2009 | 83 | Brandon Tate, N.E. | 24 | 432 | 18.0 | 5 | 73.2 |
| 2012 | 83 | Mohamed Sanu, Cin. | 56 | 790 | 14.1 | 6 | 115.0 |
| 2005 | 83 | Chris Henry, Cin. | 36 | 605 | 16.8 | 9 | 114.5 |
| 2010 | 84 | Jordan Shipley, Cin. | 52 | 600 | 11.5 | 3 | 78.0 |
| 2008 | 84 | Harry Douglas, Atl. | 23 | 320 | 13.9 | 3 | 50.0 |
| 2006 | 84 | Brandon Williams, S.F. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 |
| 2009 | 84 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 60 | 1,257 | 21.0 | 10 | 185.7 |
| 2017 | 84 | • Chris Godwin, T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2009 | 85 | Ramses Barden, NYG | 9 | 94 | 10.4 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 2016 | 85 | Braxton Miller, Hou. | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 1 | 15.9 |
| 2002 | 86 | Marquise Walker, T.B. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 |
| 2016 | 86 | Leonte Carroo, Mia. | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 | 8.9 |
| 2014 | 86 | Josh Huff, Phil. | 27 | 312 | 11.6 | 3 | 49.2 |
| 2015 | 87 | Sammie Coates, Pitt. | 21 | 435 | 20.7 | 2 | 55.5 |
| 2009 | 87 | Patrick Turner, Mia. | 8 | 96 | 12.0 | 1 | 15.6 |
| 2002 | 87 | Cliff Russell, Wash. | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 2010 | 87 | Eric Decker, Den. | 85 | 1,064 | 12.5 | 13 | 184.4 |
| 2010 | 88 | Andre Roberts, Ariz. | 64 | 759 | 11.9 | 5 | 105.9 |
| 2010 | 90 | Taylor Price, N.E. | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2006 | 90 | Maurice Stovall, T.B. | 10 | 86 | 8.6 | 1 | 14.6 |
| 2014 | 90 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 64 | 733 | 11.5 | 6 | 109.3 |
| 2009 | 91 | Deon Butler, Sea. | 36 | 385 | 10.7 | 4 | 62.5 |
| 2014 | 91 | John Brown, Ariz. | 65 | 1,003 | 15.4 | 7 | 142.3 |
| 2013 | 92 | Stedman Bailey, St.L. | 30 | 435 | 14.5 | 1 | 49.5 |
| 2012 | 92 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 82 | 1,345 | 16.4 | 7 | 176.5 |
| 2015 | 94 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 44 | 348 | 7.9 | 3 | 52.8 |
| 2006 | 95 | Willie Reid, Pitt. | 4 | 54 | 13.5 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2002 | 95 | Eric Crouch, St.L. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 |
| 2003 | 95 | Billy McMullen, Phil. | 18 | 268 | 14.9 | 1 | 32.8 |
| 2008 | 95 | Mario Manningham, NYG | 60 | 944 | 15.7 | 9 | 148.4 |
| 2005 | 96 | Brandon Jones, Tenn. | 27 | 384 | 14.2 | 4 | 62.4 |
| 2017 | 96 | • Kenny Golladay, Det. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2008 | 97 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. | 51 | 432 | 8.5 | 3 | 61.2 |
| 2017 | 98 | • Chad Williams, Ariz. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2009 | 99 | Juaquin Iglesias, Chi. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | .0 |
| 2007 | 99 | Johnnie Lee Higgins, Oak. | 22 | 366 | 16.6 | 7 | 78.6 |
| 2017 | 106 | • Amara Darboh, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan