The Falcons and Saints had great offenses last year, scoring 58 and 55 touchdowns. But that makes it pretty much a certainty those units will decline at least some this year. It’s not easy putting up track meet numbers.
Since the league moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, 57 teams have scored at least 50 touchdowns in a season. (And I’m talking offensive touchdowns here – rushing and receiving – setting aside kick returns and defensive touchdowns.) Of those 57, only 10 came back the next season and scored even more touchdowns.
The more common progression is a decline, and a lot of these teams decline a lot more than anybody would reasonably expect. Like Carolina falling from 54 to 37 touchdowns last year. Or Dallas slipping from 53 to 24 touchdowns the previous season. Stuff happens.
Collectively as a group (setting aside the four 2016 teams) these 57 teams averaged 55 touchdowns in their big seasons. In the next year, those same offenses averaged 44 touchdowns.
OFFENSES SCORING 50 TOUCHDOWNS (the next year) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | TD | Next | Diff |
2013 | Denver | 71 | 55 | -16 |
1984 | Miami | 67 | 50 | -17 |
2007 | New England | 67 | 42 | -25 |
2011 | Green Bay | 63 | 49 | -14 |
2000 | St. Louis | 63 | 57 | -6 |
2011 | New Orleans | 62 | 53 | -9 |
2004 | Indianapolis | 61 | 49 | -12 |
1981 | San Diego | 60 | 34 | -26 |
1994 | San Francisco | 60 | 48 | -12 |
1998 | San Francisco | 60 | 28 | -32 |
2012 | New England | 59 | 44 | -15 |
1983 | Washington | 59 | 44 | -15 |
2016 | Atlanta | 58 | ? | ? |
1998 | Denver | 58 | 29 | -29 |
2004 | Kansas City | 58 | 43 | -15 |
1998 | Minnesota | 58 | 45 | -13 |
2011 | • New England | 57 | 59 | +2 |
1985 | San Diego | 57 | 40 | -17 |
2001 | St. Louis | 57 | 35 | -22 |
2003 | • Kansas City | 56 | 58 | +2 |
2010 | • New England | 56 | 57 | +1 |
1980 | Dallas | 56 | 39 | -17 |
2006 | San Diego | 56 | 41 | -15 |
1993 | • San Francisco | 55 | 60 | +5 |
1999 | • St. Louis | 55 | 63 | +8 |
2016 | New Orleans | 55 | ? | ? |
1991 | Buffalo | 55 | 41 | -14 |
1988 | Cincinnati | 55 | 49 | -6 |
2014 | Denver | 55 | 32 | -23 |
1986 | Miami | 55 | 45 | -10 |
2009 | New Orleans | 55 | 42 | -13 |
1987 | San Francisco | 55 | 39 | -16 |
2008 | • New Orleans | 54 | 55 | +1 |
2015 | Carolina | 54 | 37 | -17 |
2005 | Seattle | 54 | 34 | -20 |
2002 | • Kansas City | 53 | 56 | +3 |
2014 | Dallas | 53 | 24 | -29 |
2009 | Minnesota | 53 | 30 | -23 |
2012 | New Orleans | 53 | 49 | -4 |
2004 | San Diego | 53 | 49 | -4 |
1984 | San Francisco | 53 | 48 | -5 |
1983 | Dallas | 52 | 31 | -21 |
2014 | Green Bay | 52 | 39 | -13 |
1992 | • San Francisco | 51 | 55 | +4 |
2016 | Green Bay | 51 | ? | ? |
2016 | New England | 51 | ? | ? |
2015 | Arizona | 51 | 48 | -3 |
1985 | Cincinnati | 51 | 49 | -2 |
2007 | Indianapolis | 51 | 40 | -11 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 51 | 32 | -19 |
2000 | Oakland | 51 | 41 | -10 |
2013 | Philadelphia | 51 | 43 | -8 |
1979 | Pittsburgh | 51 | 41 | -10 |
1991 | Washington | 51 | 25 | -26 |
1985 | • Miami | 50 | 55 | +5 |
2015 | • New England | 50 | 51 | +1 |
2007 | Dallas | 50 | 41 | -9 |
2011 | Detroit | 50 | 39 | -11 |
2003 | Green Bay | 50 | 45 | -5 |
2009 | Green Bay | 50 | 42 | -8 |
2009 | Indianapolis | 50 | 46 | -4 |
—Ian Allan