Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Powerhouse offenses

Falcons, Saints ranked among touchdown leaders

The Falcons and Saints had great offenses last year, scoring 58 and 55 touchdowns. But that makes it pretty much a certainty those units will decline at least some this year. It’s not easy putting up track meet numbers.

Since the league moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, 57 teams have scored at least 50 touchdowns in a season. (And I’m talking offensive touchdowns here – rushing and receiving – setting aside kick returns and defensive touchdowns.) Of those 57, only 10 came back the next season and scored even more touchdowns.

The more common progression is a decline, and a lot of these teams decline a lot more than anybody would reasonably expect. Like Carolina falling from 54 to 37 touchdowns last year. Or Dallas slipping from 53 to 24 touchdowns the previous season. Stuff happens.

Collectively as a group (setting aside the four 2016 teams) these 57 teams averaged 55 touchdowns in their big seasons. In the next year, those same offenses averaged 44 touchdowns.

OFFENSES SCORING 50 TOUCHDOWNS (the next year)
YearTeamTDNextDiff
2013Denver7155-16
1984Miami6750-17
2007New England6742-25
2011Green Bay6349-14
2000St. Louis6357-6
2011New Orleans6253-9
2004Indianapolis6149-12
1981San Diego6034-26
1994San Francisco6048-12
1998San Francisco6028-32
2012New England5944-15
1983Washington5944-15
2016Atlanta58??
1998Denver5829-29
2004Kansas City5843-15
1998Minnesota5845-13
2011• New England5759+2
1985San Diego5740-17
2001St. Louis5735-22
2003• Kansas City5658+2
2010• New England5657+1
1980Dallas5639-17
2006San Diego5641-15
1993• San Francisco5560+5
1999• St. Louis5563+8
2016New Orleans55??
1991Buffalo5541-14
1988Cincinnati5549-6
2014Denver5532-23
1986Miami5545-10
2009New Orleans5542-13
1987San Francisco5539-16
2008• New Orleans5455+1
2015Carolina5437-17
2005Seattle5434-20
2002• Kansas City5356+3
2014Dallas5324-29
2009Minnesota5330-23
2012New Orleans5349-4
2004San Diego5349-4
1984San Francisco5348-5
1983Dallas5231-21
2014Green Bay5239-13
1992• San Francisco5155+4
2016Green Bay51??
2016New England51??
2015Arizona5148-3
1985Cincinnati5149-2
2007Indianapolis5140-11
2014Indianapolis5132-19
2000Oakland5141-10
2013Philadelphia5143-8
1979Pittsburgh5141-10
1991Washington5125-26
1985• Miami5055+5
2015• New England5051+1
2007Dallas5041-9
2011Detroit5039-11
2003Green Bay5045-5
2009Green Bay5042-8
2009Indianapolis5046-4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index