Two torn labrums to left tackles, and I think it’s time to lower expectations for the offenses of the Lions and Saints at least a little. You need blockers, and left tackle is the most important position on the line.
You saw the blurb on Taylor Decker earlier in the week. The Lions selected him in the first round a year ago, and he started as a rookie. He’s out for 4-6 months with a torn labrum.
Now, in New Orleans, a similar kind of deal. Terron Armstead has been holding down that left tackle spot for years, and he’s out for 4-6 months with a torn labrum.
Left tackles are important. The way teams pay them, it’s clear they feel it’s by far the most important offensive line position. Right now there are 16 offensive linemen with contracts averaging over $10 million per year, and all but three of them are left tackles. (One of the three exceptions – Lane Johnson – is a right tackle who’s expected to eventually move to the left side.)
| HIGHEST-PAID OFFENSIVE LINEMEN | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Million |
| LT | Russell Okung, LAC | $13.25 |
| LT | Trent Williams, Wash. | $13.20 |
| LT | • Terron Armstead, N.O. | $13.00 |
| LT | Tyron Smith, Dall. | $12.20 |
| LT | Cordy Glenn, Buff. | $12.00 |
| LT | Eric Fisher, K.C. | $12.00 |
| LT | David Bakhtiari, G.B. | $12.00 |
| RG | Kevin Zeitler, Clev. | $12.00 |
| LT | Riley Reiff, Minn. | $11.75 |
| LG | Kelechi Osemele, Oak. | $11.70 |
| LT | Joe Thomas, Clev. | $11.50 |
| LT | Andrew Whitworth, LAR | $11.25 |
| RT | Lane Johnson, Phil. | $11.25 |
| LT | Matt Kalil, Car. | $11.10 |
| LT | Anthony Castonzo, Ind. | $10.95 |
| LT | Nate Solder, N.E. | $10.03 |
| LG | Joel Bitonio, Clev. | $10.00 |
| LG | David DeCastro, Pitt. | $10.00 |
| RG | Kyle Long, Chi. | $10.00 |
| LT | Jason Peters, Phil. | $9.58 |
| RG | T.J. Lang, Det. | $9.50 |
| RT | Ricky Wagner, Det. | $9.50 |
| C | Travis Frederick, Dall. | $9.40 |
| LT | Branden Albert, Jac. | $9.40 |
| C | Alex Mack, Atl. | $9.00 |
| LG | Ronald Leary, Den. | $9.00 |
Source: OverTheCap.com
With both of these left tackles, they’re expected to miss about half of the season. Both offenses should be adversely affected during those first 6-10 games.
With the Saints, Armstead might be one of the top 5 left tackles in the game. He’s definitely in the top 10. Now they’re going down to the bottom 5 at that key position for a good chunk of the season. That must have some impact on how we view players like Drew Brees, Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson.
Yesterday at this time, my model was built around the Saints (on offense) scoring 50-plus touchdowns. I think I’ll move them down to 49, moving all of their players down a little. And I’m shaving off 3-5 yards per game both rushing and receiving.
Hopefully, this injury won’t result in Brees getting clobbered and suffering some kind of injury.
Andy and I spent a few weeks arguing and debating these offensive lines last month, eventually settling on them as the 7th-best group. With Armstead out, I consider them to be only an average group now.
Similarly with the Lions, they’re taking a big downgrade at that position. Decker is probably a middle-of-the-pack left tackle. Until he gets back, the Lions will be about as bad as anyone. They just traded for Greg Robinson, who was a No. 2 overall pick with the Rams. But he was a disaster in his four years there (hence the decision to give him away for a sixth-round pick). If Robinson could play at all, he would still be in Los Angeles.
So whatever you thought of the Lions, it’s reasonable to downgrade that offense by a touchdown or two. As with the Saints, we’ve shave off a few yards rushing and passing.
—Ian Allan