I drafted Isaiah Crowell with the 36th pick of the Fanex Analysis Draft. Little did I know at the time that he would be the “veteran” runner on my team. All five of the other backs on my roster are entering their second seasons.
This is a coincidence, of course, but I do subscribe to the theory that backs can be used more and play more effectively after they’ve had a year to learn the offense, adjust to the speed of the pro game and win the trust of the coaches.
A rundown on the five sophomore backs I selected. This is a no-moves league, so along with Crowell, I need two of these backs to start each week.
6.07 Paul Perkins: He came on last year, running for over 100 yards when they put him in the starting lineup in Week 17. He was a productive pass catcher at UCLA, so I also have hopes they’ll use him some in that capacity. I believe he’ll be New York’s starting back and a decent performer.
12.01 Robert Kelley: I like the way he played in the second half of last year (after he became a starter). Washington draft Samaje Perine, but I think Kelley is better – should hold onto that starting job. Like Perkins, he was a productive pass catcher in college, so they could use him more in that capacity.
15.06 Jonathan Williams: He didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie, but Mike Gillislee is gone, and the Bills are counting on him moving up into that No. 2 role. He might be their goal-line back, and I expect LeSean McCoy will miss at least a couple of games at some point.
16.07 Devontae Booker: C.J. Anderson likely will open the season as Denver’s starting running back, but Booker will also play, and I think he’s the faster, more talented of the two backs. Denver signed Jamaal Charles, but I don’t know that he’ll even make the team.
17.06 Wendell Smallwood: I think he might be Philadelphia’s best running back. LeGarrette Blount is really slow and has been a liability in the passing game for his entire career. Darren Sproles is a 34-year-old third down back. They drafted Donnel Pumphrey, but he’s physically the exact same size as DeSean Jackson. I remember everyone being excited about Smallwood at training camp last year, and he came in on the bench and did some good things last year – he could be ready to step up and be their guy.
So that’s five straight picks on running backs entering their second year. Only one of them had much of any success as a rookie. What are the chances of hitting on a couple of these guys?
So I ran some numbers. I see 40 running backs in this century who didn’t make much of an impact in their first year, then post top-30 numbers in their second season.
That includes Arian Foster and Devonta Freeman. Neither of those backs were top-60 players in their first season (at their position), but both moved up to No. 1 in their second season.
Of the 40 running backs, I’m including eight (tagged with dots) who at least ranked 28th to 30th in their first year – at least some production. Six others ranked in the top 40. But 26 of these running backs didn’t even rank in the top 40 in their first season, then became viable players in Year 2.
On the chart, you’re seeing rushing yards, receiving yards, total yards, touchdowns and positional rank (using standard fantasy scoring).
EMERGING SECOND-YEAR BACKS (2000-16) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | Rk |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,616 | 604 | 2,220 | 18 | 1 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,695 | 485 | 2,180 | 9 | 4 |
2002 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 1,388 | 352 | 1,740 | 16 | 6 |
2001 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1,318 | 343 | 1,661 | 16 | 4 |
2002 | • Travis Henry, Buff. | 1,438 | 309 | 1,747 | 14 | 8 |
2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,339 | 702 | 2,041 | 8 | 4 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 1,056 | 578 | 1,634 | 14 | 1 |
2009 | Peyton Hillis, Clev. | 1,177 | 477 | 1,654 | 13 | 2 |
2010 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1,080 | 592 | 1,672 | 9 | 8 |
2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 997 | 419 | 1,416 | 12 | 8 |
2004 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 1,128 | 169 | 1,297 | 13 | 9 |
2012 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 1,263 | 51 | 1,314 | 12 | 11 |
2002 | • Michael Bennett, Minn. | 1,296 | 351 | 1,647 | 6 | 17 |
2009 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,120 | 297 | 1,417 | 9 | 11 |
2005 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,046 | 320 | 1,366 | 10 | 11 |
2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1,091 | 455 | 1,546 | 6 | 8 |
2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 1,272 | 151 | 1,423 | 8 | 11 |
2009 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 1,108 | 261 | 1,369 | 8 | 13 |
2006 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 654 | 196 | 850 | 16 | 15 |
2014 | C.J. Anderson, Den. | 849 | 324 | 1,173 | 10 | 12 |
2003 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 613 | 332 | 945 | 13 | 18 |
2005 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 1,202 | 218 | 1,420 | 5 | 15 |
2007 | LenDale White, Tenn. | 1,110 | 114 | 1,224 | 7 | 15 |
2008 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 625 | 284 | 909 | 12 | 21 |
2016 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 520 | 421 | 941 | 11 | 18 |
2004 | Chris Brown, Tenn. | 1,067 | 147 | 1,214 | 6 | 24 |
2012 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 798 | 214 | 1,012 | 9 | 20 |
2003 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 779 | 94 | 873 | 11 | 21 |
2004 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 581 | 278 | 859 | 11 | 26 |
2005 | • Julius Jones, Dall. | 993 | 218 | 1,211 | 5 | 21 |
2009 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 598 | 428 | 1,026 | 8 | 22 |
2005 | Tatum Bell, Den. | 921 | 104 | 1,025 | 8 | 22 |
2007 | • Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 835 | 116 | 951 | 6 | 25 |
2015 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 529 | 561 | 1,090 | 4 | 21 |
2011 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 942 | 98 | 1,040 | 4 | 28 |
2005 | Mewelde Moore, Minn. | 662 | 339 | 1,001 | 4 | 27 |
2002 | Correll Buckhalter, Phil. | 542 | 133 | 675 | 9 | 30 |
2001 | • Ron Dayne, NYG | 690 | 67 | 757 | 7 | 27 |
2015 | • Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 706 | 182 | 888 | 5 | 29 |
2012 | • DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 663 | 251 | 914 | 4 | 26 |
The draft recap appears below. If you want to follow along, see the league website at MyFantasyLeague.com, with written capsules after each pick.
This is a PPR league, with three wide receivers plus a flex. I chose six wide receivers relatively early thinking that I’ll be using four of them in most weeks. No starting lineups or waiver moves in this league – score is automatically tabulated each week.
FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT | |||
---|---|---|---|
Pick | Pos | Player | Owner |
1.01 | RB | David Johnson | Dolfi/Walls |
1.02 | WR | Antonio Brown | Nease |
1.03 | RB | LeVeon Bell | Pianowski |
1.04 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | Satterlee |
1.05 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | Holm |
1.06 | WR | Julio Jones | Allan |
1.07 | RB | LeSean McCoy | Panizo |
1.08 | WR | Mike Evans | Harmon |
1.09 | WR | A.J. Green | Cahill |
1.10 | WR | Jordy Nelson | Nazarek |
1.11 | RB | Melvin Gordon | Adams |
1.12 | WR | Dez Bryant | Schauf |
2.01 | RB | DeMarco Murray | Schauf |
2.02 | RB | Dalvin Cook | Adams |
2.03 | RB | Devonta Freeman | Nazarek |
2.04 | RB | Jordan Howard | Cahill |
2.05 | RB | Jay Ajayi | Harmon |
2.06 | WR | Michael Thomas | Panizo |
2.07 | WR | T.Y. Hilton | Allan |
2.08 | RB | Leonard Fournette | Holm |
2.09 | WR | Brandin Cooks | Satterlee |
2.10 | WR | Amari Cooper | Pianowski |
2.11 | RB | Christian McCaffrey | Nease |
2.12 | WR | Doug Baldwin | Dolfi/Walls |
3.01 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | Dolfi/Walls |
3.02 | RB | Joe Mixon | Nease |
3.03 | RB | Todd Gurley | Pianowski |
3.04 | WR | Tyreek Hill | Satterlee |
3.05 | WR | Allen Robinson | Holm |
3.06 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | Schauf |
3.07 | RB | Lamar Miller | Panizo |
3.08 | WR | Sammy Watkins | Harmon |
3.09 | RB | Carlos Hyde | Cahill |
3.10 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | Nazarek |
3.11 | RB | Ty Montgomery | Adams |
3.12 | RB | Isaiah Crowell | Allan |
4.01 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | Allan |
4.02 | RB | Spencer Ware | Adams |
4.03 | RB | Marshawn Lynch | Nazarek |
4.04 | WR | Keenan Allen | Cahill |
4.05 | WR | Jarvis Landry | Harmon |
4.06 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | Panizo |
4.07 | WR | Golden Tate | Schauf |
4.08 | WR | Davante Adams | Holm |
4.09 | TE | Travis Kelce | Satterlee |
4.10 | WR | Terrelle Pryor | Pianowski |
4.11 | WR | Alshon Jeffery | Nease |
4.12 | WR | Michael Crabtree | Dolfi/Walls |
5.01 | TE | Jordan Reed | Dolfi/Walls |
5.02 | QB | Tom Brady | Nease |
5.03 | WR | Willie Snead | Pianowski |
5.04 | RB | Tevin Coleman | Satterlee |
5.05 | WR | Julian Edelman | Holm |
5.06 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders | Allan |
5.07 | RB | Ameer Abdullah | Panizo |
5.08 | RB | Bilal Powell | Harmon |
5.09 | WR | Corey Davis | Cahill |
5.10 | WR | Stefon Diggs | Nazarek |
5.11 | WR | Brandon Marshall | Adams |
5.12 | RB | Mark Ingram | Schauf |
6.01 | WR | Martavis Bryant | Schauf |
6.02 | WR | Eric Decker | Adams |
6.03 | TE | Greg Olsen | Nazarek |
6.04 | RB | C.J. Anderson | Cahill |
6.05 | WR | Donte Moncrief | Harmon |
6.06 | WR | Jamison Crowder | Panizo |
6.07 | RB | Paul Perkins | Allan |
6.08 | RB | Eddie Lacy | Holm |
6.09 | WR | DeVante Parker | Satterlee |
6.10 | RB | Mike Gillislee | Pianowski |
6.11 | QB | Drew Brees | Nease |
6.12 | RB | Theo Riddick | Dolfi/Walls |
7.01 | RB | LeGarrette Blount | Dolfi/Walls |
7.02 | QB | Matt Ryan | Nease |
7.03 | WR | Pierre Garcon | Pianowski |
7.04 | RB | Derrick Henry | Satterlee |
7.05 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin | Holm |
7.06 | WR | Rishard Matthews | Allan |
7.07 | RB | Frank Gore | Panizo |
7.08 | QB | Andrew Luck | Harmon |
7.09 | QB | Derek Carr | Cahill |
7.10 | WR | DeSean Jackson | Nazarek |
7.11 | QB | Jameis Winston | Adams |
7.12 | RB | Doug Martin | Schauf |
8.01 | RB | Adrian Peterson | Schauf |
8.02 | QB | Kirk Cousins | Adams |
8.03 | WR | Randall Cobb | Nazarek |
8.04 | QB | Russell Wilson | Cahill |
8.05 | QB | Ben Roethlisberger | Harmon |
8.06 | QB | Matthew Stafford | Panizo |
8.07 | QB | Philip Rivers | Allan |
8.08 | QB | Cam Newton | Holm |
8.09 | QB | Dak Prescott | Satterlee |
8.10 | WR | Cameron Meredith | Pianowski |
8.11 | TE | Delanie Walker | Nease |
8.12 | QB | Marcus Mariota | Dolfi/Walls |
9.01 | QB | Carson Wentz | Dolfi/Walls |
9.02 | TE | Zach Ertz | Nease |
9.03 | QB | Andy Dalton | Pianowski |
9.04 | TE | Jimmy Graham | Satterlee |
9.05 | TE | Kyle Rudolph | Holm |
9.06 | QB | Eli Manning | Allan |
9.07 | QB | Tyrod Taylor | Panizo |
9.08 | TE | Martellus Bennett | Harmon |
9.09 | TE | Tyler Eifert | Cahill |
9.10 | RB | Danny Woodhead | Nazarek |
9.11 | RB | Joe Williams | Adams |
9.12 | QB | Carson Palmer | Schauf |
10.01 | WR | John Brown | Schauf |
10.02 | WR | Adam Thielen | Adams |
10.03 | WR | Jeremy Maclin | Nazarek |
10.04 | WR | Mike Williams | Cahill |
10.05 | WR | Corey Coleman | Harmon |
10.06 | QB | Joe Flacco | Panizo |
10.07 | TE | Eric Ebron | Allan |
10.08 | WR | Tyrell Williams | Holm |
10.09 | RB | Kareem Hunt | Satterlee |
10.10 | TE | Jack Doyle | Pianowski |
10.11 | RB | James White | Nease |
10.12 | RB | Samaje Perine | Dolfi/Walls |
11.01 | WR | Jordan Matthews | Dolfi/Walls |
11.02 | RB | Terrance West | Nease |
11.03 | QB | Ryan Tannehill | Pianowski |
11.04 | RB | C.J. Prosise | Satterlee |
11.05 | QB | Blake Bortles | Holm |
11.06 | TE | Hunter Henry | Allan |
11.07 | WR | Kenny Britt | Panizo |
11.08 | RB | Marlon Mack | Harmon |
11.09 | RB | Kenneth Dixon | Cahill |
11.10 | QB | Sam Bradford | Nazarek |
11.11 | TE | Julius Thomas | Adams |
11.12 | QB | Alex Smith | Schauf |
12.01 | RB | Robert Kelley | Allan |
12.02 | WR | Mike Wallace | Adams |
12.03 | RB | Matt Forte | Nazarek |
12.04 | RB | Duke Johnson Jr. | Cahill |
12.05 | RB | Jamaal Williams | Harmon |
12.06 | WR | Sterling Shepard | Panizo |
12.07 | WR | Josh Doctson | Allan |
12.08 | RB | Latavius Murray | Holm |
12.09 | WR | Breshad Perriman | Satterlee |
12.10 | WR | Quincy Enunwa | Pianowski |
12.11 | WR | Kevin White | Nease |
12.12 | WR | Marvin Jones | Dolfi/Walls |
13.01 | TE | Coby Fleener | Dolfi/Walls |
13.02 | WR | Marqise Lee | Nease |
13.03 | TE | Austin Hooper | Pianowski |
13.04 | PK | Justin Tucker | Satterlee |
13.05 | WR | Taylor Gabriel | Holm |
13.06 | TE | Jason Witten | Schauf |
13.07 | TE | Zach Miller | Panizo |
13.08 | RB | Jeremy Hill | Harmon |
13.09 | WR | Ted Ginn Jr. | Cahill |
13.10 | RB | Charles Sims | Nazarek |
13.11 | QB | Deshaun Watson | Watson |
13.12 | WR | Zay Jones | Schauf |
14.01 | WR | Tavon Austin | Schauf |
14.02 | ST | Kansas City | Adams |
14.03 | ST | Houston | Nazarek |
14.04 | TE | David Njoku | Cahill |
14.05 | QB | Jared Goff | Harmon |
14.06 | TE | Evan Engram | Panizo |
14.07 | PK | Stephen Gostkowski | Allan |
14.08 | RB | Jonathan Stewart | Holm |
14.09 | WR | Will Fuller | Satterlee |
14.10 | QB | Brian Hoyer | Pianowski |
14.11 | RB | Darren Sproles | Nease |
14.12 | TE | C.J. Fiedorowicz | Dolfi/Walls |
15.01 | ST | Denver | Dolfi/Walls |
15.02 | ST | Arizona | Nease |
15.03 | RB | Thomas Rawls | Pianowski |
15.04 | QB | Paxton Lynch | Satterlee |
15.05 | TE | O.J. Howard | Holm |
15.06 | RB | Jonathan Williams | Allan |
15.07 | PK | Matt Bryant | Panizo |
15.08 | TE | Cameron Brate | Harmon |
15.09 | WR | John Ross | Cahill |
15.10 | RB | Jamaal Charles | Nazarek |
15.11 | WR | Cooper Kupp | Adams |
15.12 | PK | Dan Bailey | Schauf |
16.01 | ST | NY Giants | Schauf |
16.02 | TE | Jake Butt | Adams |
16.03 | WR | J.J. Nelson | Nazarek |
16.04 | PK | Adam Vinatieri | Cahill |
16.05 | RB | D'Onta Foreman | Harmon |
16.06 | PK | Cairo Santos | Panizo |
16.07 | RB | Devontae Booker | Allan |
16.08 | PK | Brandon McManus | Holm |
16.09 | RB | Alvin Kamara | Satterlee |
16.10 | PK | Matt Prater | Pianowski |
16.11 | PK | Caleb Sturgis | Nease |
16.12 | WR | Robert Woods | Dolfi/Walls |
17.01 | RB | Giovani Bernard | Dolfi/Walls |
17.02 | ST | New England | Nease |
17.03 | WR | Devin Funchess | Pianowski |
17.04 | WR | Cole Beasley | Satterlee |
17.05 | PK | Mason Crosby | Holm |
17.06 | RB | Wendell Smallwood | Allan |
17.07 | WR | Kenny Stills | Panizo |
—Ian Allan