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Fanex Analysis Draft

Loading up on second-year running backs

I drafted Isaiah Crowell with the 36th pick of the Fanex Analysis Draft. Little did I know at the time that he would be the “veteran” runner on my team. All five of the other backs on my roster are entering their second seasons.

This is a coincidence, of course, but I do subscribe to the theory that backs can be used more and play more effectively after they’ve had a year to learn the offense, adjust to the speed of the pro game and win the trust of the coaches.

A rundown on the five sophomore backs I selected. This is a no-moves league, so along with Crowell, I need two of these backs to start each week.

6.07 Paul Perkins: He came on last year, running for over 100 yards when they put him in the starting lineup in Week 17. He was a productive pass catcher at UCLA, so I also have hopes they’ll use him some in that capacity. I believe he’ll be New York’s starting back and a decent performer.

12.01 Robert Kelley: I like the way he played in the second half of last year (after he became a starter). Washington draft Samaje Perine, but I think Kelley is better – should hold onto that starting job. Like Perkins, he was a productive pass catcher in college, so they could use him more in that capacity.

15.06 Jonathan Williams: He didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie, but Mike Gillislee is gone, and the Bills are counting on him moving up into that No. 2 role. He might be their goal-line back, and I expect LeSean McCoy will miss at least a couple of games at some point.

16.07 Devontae Booker: C.J. Anderson likely will open the season as Denver’s starting running back, but Booker will also play, and I think he’s the faster, more talented of the two backs. Denver signed Jamaal Charles, but I don’t know that he’ll even make the team.

17.06 Wendell Smallwood: I think he might be Philadelphia’s best running back. LeGarrette Blount is really slow and has been a liability in the passing game for his entire career. Darren Sproles is a 34-year-old third down back. They drafted Donnel Pumphrey, but he’s physically the exact same size as DeSean Jackson. I remember everyone being excited about Smallwood at training camp last year, and he came in on the bench and did some good things last year – he could be ready to step up and be their guy.

So that’s five straight picks on running backs entering their second year. Only one of them had much of any success as a rookie. What are the chances of hitting on a couple of these guys?

So I ran some numbers. I see 40 running backs in this century who didn’t make much of an impact in their first year, then post top-30 numbers in their second season.

That includes Arian Foster and Devonta Freeman. Neither of those backs were top-60 players in their first season (at their position), but both moved up to No. 1 in their second season.

Of the 40 running backs, I’m including eight (tagged with dots) who at least ranked 28th to 30th in their first year – at least some production. Six others ranked in the top 40. But 26 of these running backs didn’t even rank in the top 40 in their first season, then became viable players in Year 2.

On the chart, you’re seeing rushing yards, receiving yards, total yards, touchdowns and positional rank (using standard fantasy scoring).

EMERGING SECOND-YEAR BACKS (2000-16)
YearPlayerRunRecTotalTDRk
2010Arian Foster, Hou.1,6166042,220181
2006Frank Gore, S.F.1,6954852,18094
2002Deuce McAllister, N.O.1,3883521,740166
2001Shaun Alexander, Sea.1,3183431,661164
2002• Travis Henry, Buff.1,4383091,747148
2009Ray Rice, Balt.1,3397022,04184
2015Devonta Freeman, Atl.1,0565781,634141
2009Peyton Hillis, Clev.1,1774771,654132
2010LeSean McCoy, Phil.1,0805921,67298
2016Melvin Gordon, S.D.9974191,416128
2004Willis McGahee, Buff.1,1281691,297139
2012Stevan Ridley, N.E.1,263511,3141211
2002• Michael Bennett, Minn.1,2963511,647617
2009Jamaal Charles, K.C.1,1202971,417911
2005Steven Jackson, St.L.1,0463201,3661011
2011Ryan Mathews, S.D.1,0914551,54668
2016Jay Ajayi, Mia.1,2721511,423811
2009Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.1,1082611,369813
2006Marion Barber, Dall.6541968501615
2014C.J. Anderson, Den.8493241,1731012
2003Brian Westbrook, Phil.6133329451318
2005Willie Parker, Pitt.1,2022181,420515
2007LenDale White, Tenn.1,1101141,224715
2008Pierre Thomas, N.O.6252849091221
2016Tevin Coleman, Atl.5204219411118
2004Chris Brown, Tenn.1,0671471,214624
2012Mikel Leshoure, Det.7982141,012920
2003T.J. Duckett, Atl.779948731121
2004Larry Johnson, K.C.5812788591126
2005• Julius Jones, Dall.9932181,211521
2009Tim Hightower, Ariz.5984281,026822
2005Tatum Bell, Den.9211041,025822
2007• Laurence Maroney, N.E.835116951625
2015Charles Sims, T.B.5295611,090421
2011Ben Tate, Hou.942981,040428
2005Mewelde Moore, Minn.6623391,001427
2002Correll Buckhalter, Phil.542133675930
2001• Ron Dayne, NYG69067757727
2015• Isaiah Crowell, Clev.706182888529
2012• DeMarco Murray, Dall.663251914426

The draft recap appears below. If you want to follow along, see the league website at MyFantasyLeague.com, with written capsules after each pick.

This is a PPR league, with three wide receivers plus a flex. I chose six wide receivers relatively early thinking that I’ll be using four of them in most weeks. No starting lineups or waiver moves in this league – score is automatically tabulated each week.

FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT
PickPosPlayerOwner
1.01RBDavid JohnsonDolfi/Walls
1.02WRAntonio BrownNease
1.03RBLeVeon BellPianowski
1.04RBEzekiel ElliottSatterlee
1.05WROdell Beckham Jr.Holm
1.06WRJulio JonesAllan
1.07RBLeSean McCoyPanizo
1.08WRMike EvansHarmon
1.09WRA.J. GreenCahill
1.10WRJordy NelsonNazarek
1.11RBMelvin GordonAdams
1.12WRDez BryantSchauf
2.01RBDeMarco MurraySchauf
2.02RBDalvin CookAdams
2.03RBDevonta FreemanNazarek
2.04RBJordan HowardCahill
2.05RBJay AjayiHarmon
2.06WRMichael ThomasPanizo
2.07WRT.Y. HiltonAllan
2.08RBLeonard FournetteHolm
2.09WRBrandin CooksSatterlee
2.10WRAmari CooperPianowski
2.11RBChristian McCaffreyNease
2.12WRDoug BaldwinDolfi/Walls
3.01WRDeAndre HopkinsDolfi/Walls
3.02RBJoe MixonNease
3.03RBTodd GurleyPianowski
3.04WRTyreek HillSatterlee
3.05WRAllen RobinsonHolm
3.06TERob GronkowskiSchauf
3.07RBLamar MillerPanizo
3.08WRSammy WatkinsHarmon
3.09RBCarlos HydeCahill
3.10QBAaron RodgersNazarek
3.11RBTy MontgomeryAdams
3.12RBIsaiah CrowellAllan
4.01WRLarry FitzgeraldAllan
4.02RBSpencer WareAdams
4.03RBMarshawn LynchNazarek
4.04WRKeenan AllenCahill
4.05WRJarvis LandryHarmon
4.06WRDemaryius ThomasPanizo
4.07WRGolden TateSchauf
4.08WRDavante AdamsHolm
4.09TETravis KelceSatterlee
4.10WRTerrelle PryorPianowski
4.11WRAlshon JefferyNease
4.12WRMichael CrabtreeDolfi/Walls
5.01TEJordan ReedDolfi/Walls
5.02QBTom BradyNease
5.03WRWillie SneadPianowski
5.04RBTevin ColemanSatterlee
5.05WRJulian EdelmanHolm
5.06WREmmanuel SandersAllan
5.07RBAmeer AbdullahPanizo
5.08RBBilal PowellHarmon
5.09WRCorey DavisCahill
5.10WRStefon DiggsNazarek
5.11WRBrandon MarshallAdams
5.12RBMark IngramSchauf
6.01WRMartavis BryantSchauf
6.02WREric DeckerAdams
6.03TEGreg OlsenNazarek
6.04RBC.J. AndersonCahill
6.05WRDonte MoncriefHarmon
6.06WRJamison CrowderPanizo
6.07RBPaul PerkinsAllan
6.08RBEddie LacyHolm
6.09WRDeVante ParkerSatterlee
6.10RBMike GillisleePianowski
6.11QBDrew BreesNease
6.12RBTheo RiddickDolfi/Walls
7.01RBLeGarrette BlountDolfi/Walls
7.02QBMatt RyanNease
7.03WRPierre GarconPianowski
7.04RBDerrick HenrySatterlee
7.05WRKelvin BenjaminHolm
7.06WRRishard MatthewsAllan
7.07RBFrank GorePanizo
7.08QBAndrew LuckHarmon
7.09QBDerek CarrCahill
7.10WRDeSean JacksonNazarek
7.11QBJameis WinstonAdams
7.12RBDoug MartinSchauf
8.01RBAdrian PetersonSchauf
8.02QBKirk CousinsAdams
8.03WRRandall CobbNazarek
8.04QBRussell WilsonCahill
8.05QBBen RoethlisbergerHarmon
8.06QBMatthew StaffordPanizo
8.07QBPhilip RiversAllan
8.08QBCam NewtonHolm
8.09QBDak PrescottSatterlee
8.10WRCameron MeredithPianowski
8.11TEDelanie WalkerNease
8.12QBMarcus MariotaDolfi/Walls
9.01QBCarson WentzDolfi/Walls
9.02TEZach ErtzNease
9.03QBAndy DaltonPianowski
9.04TEJimmy GrahamSatterlee
9.05TEKyle RudolphHolm
9.06QBEli ManningAllan
9.07QBTyrod TaylorPanizo
9.08TEMartellus BennettHarmon
9.09TETyler EifertCahill
9.10RBDanny WoodheadNazarek
9.11RBJoe WilliamsAdams
9.12QBCarson PalmerSchauf
10.01WRJohn BrownSchauf
10.02WRAdam ThielenAdams
10.03WRJeremy MaclinNazarek
10.04WRMike WilliamsCahill
10.05WRCorey ColemanHarmon
10.06QBJoe FlaccoPanizo
10.07TEEric EbronAllan
10.08WRTyrell WilliamsHolm
10.09RBKareem HuntSatterlee
10.10TEJack DoylePianowski
10.11RBJames WhiteNease
10.12RBSamaje PerineDolfi/Walls
11.01WRJordan MatthewsDolfi/Walls
11.02RBTerrance WestNease
11.03QBRyan TannehillPianowski
11.04RBC.J. ProsiseSatterlee
11.05QBBlake BortlesHolm
11.06TEHunter HenryAllan
11.07WRKenny BrittPanizo
11.08RBMarlon MackHarmon
11.09RBKenneth DixonCahill
11.10QBSam BradfordNazarek
11.11TEJulius ThomasAdams
11.12QBAlex SmithSchauf
12.01RBRobert KelleyAllan
12.02WRMike WallaceAdams
12.03RBMatt ForteNazarek
12.04RBDuke Johnson Jr.Cahill
12.05RBJamaal WilliamsHarmon
12.06WRSterling ShepardPanizo
12.07WRJosh DoctsonAllan
12.08RBLatavius MurrayHolm
12.09WRBreshad PerrimanSatterlee
12.10WRQuincy EnunwaPianowski
12.11WRKevin WhiteNease
12.12WRMarvin JonesDolfi/Walls
13.01TECoby FleenerDolfi/Walls
13.02WRMarqise LeeNease
13.03TEAustin HooperPianowski
13.04PKJustin TuckerSatterlee
13.05WRTaylor GabrielHolm
13.06TEJason WittenSchauf
13.07TEZach MillerPanizo
13.08RBJeremy HillHarmon
13.09WRTed Ginn Jr.Cahill
13.10RBCharles SimsNazarek
13.11QBDeshaun WatsonWatson
13.12WRZay JonesSchauf
14.01WRTavon AustinSchauf
14.02STKansas CityAdams
14.03STHoustonNazarek
14.04TEDavid NjokuCahill
14.05QBJared GoffHarmon
14.06TEEvan EngramPanizo
14.07PKStephen GostkowskiAllan
14.08RBJonathan StewartHolm
14.09WRWill FullerSatterlee
14.10QBBrian HoyerPianowski
14.11RBDarren SprolesNease
14.12TEC.J. FiedorowiczDolfi/Walls
15.01STDenverDolfi/Walls
15.02STArizonaNease
15.03RBThomas RawlsPianowski
15.04QBPaxton LynchSatterlee
15.05TEO.J. HowardHolm
15.06RBJonathan WilliamsAllan
15.07PKMatt BryantPanizo
15.08TECameron BrateHarmon
15.09WRJohn RossCahill
15.10RBJamaal CharlesNazarek
15.11WRCooper KuppAdams
15.12PKDan BaileySchauf
16.01STNY GiantsSchauf
16.02TEJake ButtAdams
16.03WRJ.J. NelsonNazarek
16.04PKAdam VinatieriCahill
16.05RBD'Onta ForemanHarmon
16.06PKCairo SantosPanizo
16.07RBDevontae BookerAllan
16.08PKBrandon McManusHolm
16.09RBAlvin KamaraSatterlee
16.10PKMatt PraterPianowski
16.11PKCaleb SturgisNease
16.12WRRobert WoodsDolfi/Walls
17.01RBGiovani BernardDolfi/Walls
17.02STNew EnglandNease
17.03WRDevin FunchessPianowski
17.04WRCole BeasleySatterlee
17.05PKMason CrosbyHolm
17.06RBWendell SmallwoodAllan
17.07WRKenny StillsPanizo

—Ian Allan

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