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D'Onta Foreman

Off-field concerns won't help 3rd-rounder buck history

The Texans selected D'Onta Foreman in the third round, and he seemed like the favorite to back up Lamar Miller, perhaps carving out a change-of-pace or goal-line role this year. But it's been a rough offseason for the rookie, and he seems unlikely to buck recent trends of third-round running backs not doing a lot in Year 1.

Foreman was arrested over the weekend, charged with unlawful carrying of a weapon and marijuana possession. We'll let the legal system determine this one; Foreman's lawyer says the drugs belonged to a passenger in Foreman's car and that the rookie had a permit for the gun. Too soon to say for sure if these charges will stick.

But Foreman had already drawn criticism for showing up to OTAs out of shape, so this incident is just a further concern. And third-rounders haven't generally made a big impact in their rookie season.

This century, there have been 46 other running backs selected in the third round. Only four of them have ranked in the top 25 at their position in their rookie seasons, so about 9 percent. Only 17 (a little over 1 in 3) have made it into the top 50.

THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT
YearPkPlayerRunRecTotTDRk
200889Steve Slaton, Hou.12823771659106
201586David Johnson, Ariz.5814571038137
200864Kevin Smith, Det.9762861262818
201475Tre Mason, St.L.765148913525
200063Travis Prentice, Clev.512191703828
201171DeMarco Murray, Dall.8971831080230
200180Kevan Barlow, S.F.512247759530
201494Terrance West, Clev.67364737533
201595Matt Jones, Wash.490304794437
201577Duke Johnson, Clev.379534913238
200565Frank Gore, S.F.608131739338
200076J.R. Redmond, N.E.406126532341
200679Jerious Norwood, Atl.633102735243
200284Lamar Gordon, St.L.228278506347
200185Travis Minor, Mia.281263544447
201496Jerick McKinnon, Minn.538135673049
200165James Jackson, Clev.55456610250
201284Bernard Pierce, Balt.53247579151
201396Knile Davis, K.C.24275317555
200965Shonn Greene, NYJ5400540256
200873Jamaal Charles, K.C.357272629157
200577Ryan Moats, Phil.2787285363
201267Ronnie Hillman, Den.33062392165
201173Stevan Ridley, N.E.44113454166
201690C.J. Prosise, Sea.172208380167
200291Brian Westbrook, Phil.19386279067
201673Kenyan Drake, Mia.17946225270
200573Vernand Morency, Hou.18487271271
201573Tevin Coleman, Atl.39214406175
201469Charles Sims, T.B.185190375175
200974Glen Coffee, S.F.22676302177
200869Jacob Hester, S.D.9591186279
200393Chris Brown, Tenn.22161282081
200793Garrett Wolfe, Chi.85117202091
200396Justin Fargas, Oak.2032205093
201497Dri Archer, Pitt.402363099+
201196Alex Green, G.B.11617099+
200771Lorenzo Booker, Mia.1250125099+
200790Tony Hunt, Phil.16016199+
200674Brian Calhoun, Det.192039099+
2005101Maurice Clarett, Den.000099+
200377Musa Smith, Balt.31031299+
200385B.J. Askew, NYJ909099+
200182Heath Evans, Sea.11011099+
200081Rueben Droughns, Det.000099+
200088Doug Chapman, Minn.000099+
201767Alvin Kamara, N.O.?????
201786Kareem Hunt, K.C.?????
201789D'Onta Foreman, Hou.?????
2017105James Conner, Pitt.?????

If you were guessing which third-round rookie is most likely to make an impact, Kareem Hunt -- a possible starter in Kansas City -- or Alvin Kamara in New Orleans look like far better bets.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index