Paul Perkins is supposed to be a breakout back this year. That’s the theory. He went over 100 yards in the only game he started last year, and Rashad Jennings is gone. But what are the chances of Perkins actually coming through?
Perkins reportedly has been only so-so in practices, and he didn’t pop in his preseason debut. He was trapped for little or no gain on almost all of his carries. He had one 7-yard run, but an area newspaper noted that most backs would have gotten a lot more on the play. I went back and reviewed it, and I think that’s fair – he ran through a big hole was brought down by the defensive back pretty easily (many of runners would have picked up another 10 yards, and the franchise types might have turned it into a long touchdown).
Perkins is running behind a lesser line. That’s an issue. Will be a surprise if the Giants don’t rank in the bottom-10 in rushing. On my projections board, I’ve actually got New York projected to rank last in rushing touchdowns – the only team I’ve projected under 8 TDs.
But Perkins needs to control what he can control, which is how he’s running. He hasn’t thus far looked like an emerging, breakout-type back.
New York has Shane Vereen. He’ll play on passing downs and in hurry-up situations. If the Giants are losing games, Vereen should catch a lot of passes in those games. There’s the new company, YOURULZ.COM, with a fantasy game where you can adjust your lineup on the fly. If I were playing in their game, I would be looking to plug in Vereen when the Giants are trailing by a couple of touchdowns. When you’ve got a third-down back (Woodhead, Chris Thompson, Riddick) that’s how you use them.
But the Giants need a regular, running between-the-tackles back. They’ll start with Perkins, but if he ain’t getting it done, they’ll have to plug somebody else. Right now, their No. 2 is Orleans Darkwa. He got some first-team reps last week. He was their second back in against the Steelers, and he ran better than Perkins, picking up 18 yards on 3 carries. Strange to say, but it’s possible he moves to the top of the depth chart.
The Giants drafted Wayne Gallman out of Clemson, but he doesn’t look likely to make much of an impact. He probably needs a year or seasoning to figure out what he’s doing and adjust to the speed of the pro game. Gallman came in for the third quarter against Pittsburgh, and Ben McAdoo says he liked the way Gallman ran. I went back and gave those carries a look. I thought he looked fine but not notable – seems to be that McAdoo is either trying to encourage Gallman or light a fire under Perkins.
Bottom line is Perkins is a former fifth-round pick, so he’s not a can’t-miss talent. History tells us that it’s rare for those kind of guys to bust out in their second year. In this century (which started not in 2001 but 2000), there have been 106 running backs chosen in the fourth or fifth round. Only five of those running backs made much of an impact in their second year. Devonta Freeman and Jay Ajayi in recent years both busted out. On behalf of Perkins, I will point out that Ajayi at this time last year didn’t look likely to even start in his second year. With Freeman, it was apparent in the preseason of his second year that he was going to be good – I remember watching those games and being very confident Freeman would be better than Tevin Coleman (who was a rookie).
Of the other three good second-year backs, Domanick Davis (later Domanick Williams) doesn’t really count, because he had been a monster in his rookie season. Marion Barber and Tim Hightower were both better as rookies than Perkins.
I won’t list all 106 of those rookies. Instead, I’m showing the top 30 (using standard fantasy scoring). The numbers you see below are what they did in their second season. The “year” is not that season but the year they were drafted.
| BEST BACKS IN 4TH & 5TH ROUNDS SINCE 2000 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| 2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,188 | 588 | 1,776 | 14 |
| 2014 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 1,056 | 578 | 1,634 | 14 |
| 2015 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 1,272 | 151 | 1,423 | 8 |
| 2005 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 654 | 196 | 850 | 16 |
| 2008 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 598 | 428 | 1,026 | 8 |
| 2004 | Mewelde Moore, Minn. | 662 | 339 | 1,001 | 3 |
| 2003 | Onterrio Smith, Minn. | 544 | 394 | 938 | 4 |
| 2005 | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 423 | 149 | 572 | 9 |
| 2003 | Lee Suggs, Clev. | 744 | 178 | 922 | 3 |
| 2012 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 709 | 170 | 879 | 2 |
| 2013 | Denard Robinson, Jac. | 582 | 124 | 706 | 4 |
| 2009 | Mike Goodson, Car. | 452 | 310 | 762 | 3 |
| 2011 | Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl. | 362 | 402 | 764 | 2 |
| 2014 | James White, N.E. | 56 | 410 | 466 | 6 |
| 2011 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 437 | 140 | 577 | 4 |
| 2007 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 421 | 162 | 583 | 3 |
| 2006 | Leon Washington, NYJ | 353 | 213 | 566 | 3 |
| 2008 | Tashard Choice, Dall. | 349 | 132 | 481 | 3 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 200 | 142 | 342 | 4 |
| 2003 | Quentin Griffin, Den. | 311 | 68 | 379 | 3 |
| 2011 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | 371 | 60 | 431 | 2 |
| 2013 | Joseph Randle, Dall. | 343 | 23 | 366 | 3 |
| 2013 | Stepfan Taylor, Ariz. | 208 | 79 | 287 | 4 |
| 2004 | Michael Turner, S.D. | 335 | 0 | 335 | 3 |
| 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 293 | 152 | 445 | 1 |
| 2014 | KaDeem Carey, Chi. | 159 | 19 | 178 | 3 |
| 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 257 | 7 | 264 | 1 |
| 2012 | Robert Turbin, Sea. | 264 | 60 | 324 | 0 |
| 2014 | DeAnthony Thomas, K.C. | 34 | 140 | 174 | 2 |
| 2015 | Cameron Artis-Payne, Car. | 144 | 11 | 155 | 2 |
—Ian Allan