The preseason doesn’t mean everything. The Lions most famously went 0-16 after finishing undefeated in August. But it also doesn’t mean nothing. When teams dominate against opponents in the practice games, that’s usually an indicator that those teams have better personnel.
Consider the chart below, which shows the 41 teams that have outscored opponents by at least 40 points in the preseason in the last 20 years. Only 11 of those teams in the regular season then finished with losing records.
If you look only at teams that have outscored opponents by at over 55 points, there have been 15 of those teams. One finished with a losing record, two finished 8-8, and the remaining 12 all finished with winning records.
(On the chart below, if the team went on to finish with a losing record, there’s a black dot by the name.)
Which brings us to 2017. Three teams really kicked butt in the preseason: Denver, Seattle and Baltimore. I like the look of the Seahawks. I think they’re going to be the Super Bowl team from the NFC side – I think they’re going to win at Green Bay this week.
With Denver, I’m not sure. The AFC West is a tough division, so I could see them finishing anywhere from 6-10 to 10-6. That division is up for grabs. But they have some players.
The Ravens are the team I can’t sign up for. I don’t like their personnel. Joe Flacco has never been able to get over the hump and has a bad back. I don’t like any of the players they have on that offense, who are mostly castoffs from other teams. I don’t care what they did in the preseason – will be surprised if they finish with a winning record.
DOMINANT PRESEASON TEAMS (last 20 years) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | PF | PA | Diff | Reg. Sea. |
1998 | Minnesota | 4 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 50 | 79 | 15-1-0 |
2012 | Seattle | 4 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 44 | 78 | 11-5-0 |
2006 | Cincinnati | 4 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 54 | 77 | 8-8-0 |
2013 | Seattle | 4 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 36 | 74 | 13-3-0 |
1997 | Green Bay | 5 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 47 | 74 | 13-3-0 |
1999 | Tampa Bay | 4 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 37 | 71 | 11-5-0 |
2009 | New Orleans | 3 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 38 | 69 | 13-3-0 |
2011 | Detroit | 4 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 47 | 67 | 10-6-0 |
1998 | Tampa Bay | 4 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 26 | 63 | 8-8-0 |
2014 | Denver | 3 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 37 | 62 | 12-4-0 |
1997 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 96 | 59 | 11-5-0 |
2006 | New England | 2 | 2 | 0 | 117 | 60 | 57 | 12-4-0 |
2017 | Denver | 4 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 50 | 57 | ?-?-? |
2002 | NY Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 45 | 56 | 9-7-0 |
2002 | Denver | 3 | 1 | 0 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 9-7-0 |
2015 | • Philadelphia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 77 | 56 | 7-9-0 |
1999 | Green Bay | 4 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 62 | 55 | 8-8-0 |
2002 | • Washington | 4 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 109 | 55 | 7-9-0 |
2017 | Seattle | 4 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 56 | 55 | ?-?-? |
2003 | New England | 4 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 54 | 54 | 14-2-0 |
2013 | San Francisco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 96 | 43 | 53 | 12-4-0 |
2003 | Dallas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100 | 47 | 53 | 10-6-0 |
2013 | • Washington | 4 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 53 | 53 | 3-13-0 |
2003 | Carolina | 4 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 31 | 50 | 11-5-0 |
2003 | Tennessee | 4 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 48 | 49 | 12-4-0 |
2017 | Baltimore | 4 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 32 | 49 | ?-?-? |
2008 | • Detroit | 4 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 32 | 48 | 0-16-0 |
2015 | Kansas City | 4 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 59 | 47 | 11-5-0 |
2012 | • Philadelphia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 60 | 46 | 4-12-0 |
2009 | Baltimore | 4 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 39 | 45 | 9-7-0 |
2000 | • San Diego | 4 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 61 | 45 | 1-15-0 |
2013 | • Detroit | 3 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 63 | 44 | 7-9-0 |
2013 | Cincinnati | 3 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 63 | 43 | 11-5-0 |
2006 | Dallas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 9-7-0 |
2016 | • Philadelphia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 7-9-0 |
2014 | Baltimore | 4 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 63 | 42 | 10-6-0 |
2003 | • Tampa Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 68 | 42 | 7-9-0 |
2015 | • Chicago | 3 | 1 | 0 | 84 | 42 | 42 | 6-10-0 |
2007 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 46 | 41 | 10-6-0 |
2001 | • Minnesota | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 59 | 41 | 5-11-0 |
2014 | Green Bay | 3 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 62 | 40 | 12-4-0 |
2014 | Seattle | 2 | 2 | 0 | 122 | 82 | 40 | 12-4-0 |
2014 | • Minnesota | 4 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 49 | 40 | 7-9-0 |
—Ian Allan