ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Who will be the 2017 fantasy MVP?
ALAN SATTERLEE
The easy answer is David Johnson, and it’s probably David Johnson (though anything can happen). However, if I had to take a flier on someone other than Johnson, I’ll go with Mike Evans. I had Evans as my preseason No. 1 receiver and still feel good about that. Evans led the league in targets last year (a whopping 10.7 per game) as he’s simply a force on the field. Some may speculate that he will get fewer targets with DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard added to the offense -- maybe, maybe not. Maybe that will extend some drives to get Evans more scoring opportunities too. Jameis Winston loves throwing toward Mike Evans, and why wouldn’t he at 6’5”, 230 pounds. Evans is also likely only improving his craft, after all he just turned 24 years old. Evans seems a near lock for a dozen scores again (he did that as a rookie and again last year), as again he is only getting better, and there is easily the upside for 16-18 TDs. Evans has also seen his yards per game go up each season since entering the league.
Satterlee is the Fantasy Football Insider for the Charlotte Observer and is syndicated in a few other newspapers in the southeast. Satterlee first started playing fantasy football in 1990.
SAM HENDRICKS
Philip Rivers. Why? Because QBs always win this award right? Look you can draft Rivers in the 11th, 12th or 13th rounds in most drafts. He finally has all of his main wide receivers healthy (Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin) and two quality tight ends in Antonio Gates and the breakout candidate Hunter Henry. Throw in a decent bellcow running back in Melvin Gordon and you have all the ingredients of top-5 QB. He has done it before. In fact, it seems like every three or four years it happens. He is due. And he can give you the Championship if you waited on quarterback and took him late.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 25-year fantasy football veteran who participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). He won the Fantasy Index Open in 2013. Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
MICHAEL NAZAREK
It's hard not to choose David Johnson. As long as he stays healthy, no one is as talented or sees the scoring chances he does as the lead back for the Cardinals. I can easily see him scoring another 20 TDS in 2017.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its newly re-designed web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. He's also won in excess of $20K in recent seasons of the FFPC High Stakes Main Event. www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
DAVID DOREY
Aside from the obvious answers like David Johnson or Antonio Brown, the true MVP would be a player that you got cheaply and who played like a top star. That would be a player like Brandin Cooks who could explode in New England or a rookie since there is something new about that player that caused them to be undervalued in drafts. So for a guess, Dalvin Cook in Minnesota takes over from Adrian Peterson and has a good schedule, a better offensive line and plays with the Minnesota defense that keeps scores low and lets the Vikes run out the clock.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
SCOTT SACHS
Aaron Rodgers should win, but he and David Johnson should be neck and neck, dependent on scoring rules. Let's look at easy math with round numbers in a standard scoring league, i.e., 4 points for TD throw, 6 points for TD run or catch, also excluding bonus points for yards gained, but figuring in PPR. Rodgers will throw for 40 TDs and run for a few more, say 4. Mathematically, that equates to 184 points for Rodgers. David Johnson should be good for 20 combined TD's and 50 catches. Mathematically, that should add up to 170 points for Johnson. Using these results, 184 > 170, so the edge goes to Rodgers. It bears mentioning that if your league only awards 3 points for a TD throw, then DJ wins on points. Conversely, if your league awards 6 points for TDs, regardless if it's a throw, catch, or run, then it's Rodgers in a runaway.
With two perfect seasons and multiple league championships to his credit, Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, featuring LIVE Talk & Text Advice. He won the 2011 and 2016 Experts Auction League and also the 2012 Fantasy Index Experts Poll.
ANDY RICHARDSON
No doubt the fantasy MVP will be some first-round pick who carries teams to the title. But years I win I'm usually seeing some mid-round pick who I had faith in and ended up dramatically out-performing where he was selected. For me this year I'm thinking it will be a running back like Mark Ingram, Ameer Abdullah or Ty Montgomery -- guys drafted after the biggest names were selected. The one of those guys who steps up and has a great season will be the most valuable of all my selections.
Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.