SEATTLE (at San Francisco)
The Seahawks stumbled their way to a crummy, 3 field-goal game in Green Bay, but they'll come around. They missed on some scoring chances due to sacks, penalties and a costly turnover, plus they didn't make enough defensive stops: Green Bay held the ball for more than 40 ...
... minutes. Very few offenses will manage that against the Seahawks; the 49ers aren't one of them. Seattle has scored 29, 37 and 25 points in the last three meetings, and although this is a new coaching staff with some new, young players on hand, that's the target range to look for out of the Seahawks. ... Russell Wilson has won his last seven games against the 49ers, including a playoff meeting after the 2013 season. Some of those games, Seattle has dominated. So it's odd that he's been held to lesser numbers in nearly all of them.
| Wilson against 49ers, last seven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Score | Pass | Run | TD |
| 2013 | 23-17(H) | 215 | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | 19-3(A) | 236 | 35 | 1 |
| 2014 | 17-7(H) | 168 | 27 | 1 |
| 2015 | 20-3(A) | 235 | 20 | 1 |
| 2015 | 29-13(H) | 260 | 30 | 3 |
| 2016 | 37-18(H) | 243 | 3 | 1 |
| 2016 | 25-23(A) | 258 | 4 | 1 |
In only one of those contests did Wilson deliver more than 1 TD, and he didn't throw for more than 260 yards in any of them. He averaged 17 rushing yards in those games. Part of the problem is that ...
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... San Francisco's offense hasn't been potent enough to force Wilson to do more, but that might be the case again: Seattle's defense is great, while San Francisco failed to get in the end zone at home against Carolina. It's Seattle's home opener and the team would like to put something good on the field after the disappointment in Green Bay, but we're anticipating modest production for Wilson. ... If the passing game puts up average types of numbers, there might not be a real standout receiver. Doug Baldwin is the top choice, but he actually saw fewer targets (4) than Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham (7 each) at Green Bay. He caught all 4 of them for 63 yards, and Seattle should try to get him more involved, but they also won't force the ball in to him. Baldwin had a huge game against this defense last season, catching 8 balls for 164 yards and a touchdown, though his other three most recent games were quieter: 2, 6 and 3 catches for 44, 19 and 60 yards, with no touchdowns. Recommendation with Baldwin in most leagues is to just leave him in the lineup, but not a compelling history. Richardson played nearly as many snaps as Baldwin, finishing with similar numbers (4 for 59), while Tyler Lockett was a level behind in both snaps (41-26) and targets (7-3). Pete Carroll says Lockett will play more in Week 2, but he seems to be firmly behind Richardson. San Francisco allowed 21 TDs to wideouts last year and blew a tackle to let Russell Shepard take on in last week, so good chance one of these players gets in the end zone. ... The Seahawks tried to get it to Jimmy Graham against Green Bay, including on a touchdown chance where interference should probably have been called. But you stay the course with Graham, especially considering how good he was in this series last season. He caught 6 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in the home game, then came back with 4 catches for 64 yards in the road meeting. ... It's a mess at running back. Thomas Rawls has been dealing with an ankle injury, but Pete Carroll says he'll play this week. But whether he'll start or come off the bench behind Chris Carson and possibly even Eddie Lacy is uncertain. Carson was the most effective last week (he's got more juice than Lacy) but he probably hasn't moved past a healthy Rawls. It could be a hot hand approach, and whoever the main runner is might not carry near the goal line, and will lose passing down snaps to C.J. Prosise. All these backs are working behind a line that doesn't seem to block very well, either. San Francisco had an epically bad run defense a year ago, but was credible against Carolina (Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey both averaged 3.6 yards per carry). The Seahawks may try to get the ground game going, particularly if they can take a lead (which is likely), but risky to count on any one of these backs dominating snaps. ... Blair Walsh has landed on his feet (so to speak) in a great situation for a kicker. The Seahawks should win plenty of games in the NFC West, and with their strong defense and poor offensive line will probably find themselves settling for lots of field goals. Seattle had 13 kicking points in each of the San Francisco games last year. ... The Seahawks Defense is an excellent group, though not always a fantasy-friendly one (3rd in sacks but 22nd in takeaways last season). But getting 4 sacks and a turnover off Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau last week was impressive; would have been a Pick Six but for a penalty during the return. Brian Hoyer also took 4 sacks and turned it over twice last week, and that was in San Francisco. This is a tough place for opposing quarterbacks to play. Nice matchup for the Seahawks, who have a dangerous returner in Tyler Lockett (a 43-yard kickoff return at Green Bay).