The Chargers are at Oakland today, and in each of the last three years, the first meeting between these teams has been a lot higher scoring than the rematch. Is that just a coincidence? Or is it a trend that tends to be repeated with other teams?
| RECENT CHARGERS-RAIDERS GAMES | |
|---|---|
| Year | Result |
| 2014 | Chargers 31, at Raiders 28 |
| 2014 | at Chargers 13, Raiders 6 |
| 2015 | Raiders 37, at Chargers 29 |
| 2015 | at Raiders 23, Chargers 20 (OT) |
| 2016 | at Raiders 34, Chargers 31 |
| 2016 | Raiders 19, at Chargers 16 |
We know that divisional games tend to be lower scoring. It’s usually about 3 points per game (about 1.5 points per team). Explanations vary, but I think it’s because defenses get a feel for what they need to do. They learn the personnel, develop some immunity to some of the go-to plays, and start to figure out what will be called in key situations.
If that’s the case (or the tendency) it stands to reason that when teams meet for a second time in the same season, it should be more of a benefit for the defenses.
So I checked the numbers from the last 10 years. And they do support the notion. Looking only at divisional games, there has been an average of 44.3 points scored in the first game between two teams in any given season. The total drops to 43.3 for the rematches – a point less per game.
This is based on 960 games – 480 two-game series. In 251 of those series, the first game featured more scoring. That’s 33 more than the rematches (218, with the remaining 11 series featuring the same score in both games).
In 157 of these series, one of the games featured at least 20 more points than the others. On those, 85 of the high-scoring games were in the initial matchup (versus just 72 in the rematch).
This is more of a tendency rather than a rule. We can’t look at any one series and promise the first game will be higher scorer. But as you look at many games, it’s more likely that the big, high-scoring shootout will come in the first meeting between two teams.
Since 2000, there have been 29 games between divisional foes that resulted in more than 75 total points being scored. Of those 16 were the initial meeting rather than the rematch. Again, not a hard-and-fast rule, but if you’re looking for more production, it’s more likely to come in the first game.
(In chart here, the rematch games include a black dot, and there are only 13 of them).
| DIVISIONAL GAMES WITH MORE THAN 75 POINTS | |
|---|---|
| Year | Score |
| 2000 | • at Raiders 49, Chiefs 31 |
| 2000 | at Jets 40, Dolphins 37 |
| 2000 | • Steelers 48, at Bengals 28 |
| 2001 | • Browns 41, at Titans 38 |
| 2001 | Jets 42, at Bills 36 |
| 2004 | • at Bengals 58, Browns 48 |
| 2007 | at Browns 51, Bengals 45 |
| 2007 | at Cowboys 45, Giants 35 |
| 2007 | Patriots 49, at Dolphins 28 |
| 2008 | at Bears 48, Vikings 41 |
| 2008 | at Cowboys 41, Eagles 37 |
| 2008 | at Broncos 39, Chargers 38 |
| 2008 | • Patriots 48, at Dolphins 28 |
| 2009 | • Eagles 45, at Giants 38 |
| 2010 | • Eagles 59, at Redskins 28 |
| 2010 | at Broncos 49, Chiefs 29 |
| 2010 | Giants 41, at Cowboys 35 |
| 2011 | • at Packers 45, Lions 41 |
| 2012 | • Panthers 44, at Saints 38 |
| 2012 | • at Texans 43, Jaguars 37 |
| 2012 | Patriots 52, at Bills 28 |
| 2012 | at Jets 48, Bills 28 |
| 2013 | • Chiefs 56, at Raiders 31 |
| 2013 | Chargers 41, at Chiefs 38 |
| 2015 | • at Titans 42, Jaguars 39 |
| 2015 | • Panthers 41, at Saints 38 |
| 2016 | at Falcons 48, Panthers 33 |
| 2016 | at Saints 41, Panthers 38 |
| 2016 | Falcons 45, at Saints 32 |
—Ian Allan