Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

Kicking butt (part 2)

Can high-scoring kickers keep it going?

I posted a Factoid earlier in the week, showing how a bunch of kickers are scoring a lot of points. Seven teams are on pace to score over 149 kicking points, and Greg Zuerlein and Ryan Succop look like they might challenge the all-time scoring record for kickers.

But one reader, Nick Fritz, pointed out that he doesn’t so much care what kickers have done so far. He’s more interested in what they’re going to do in the coming weeks. And he wanted to know if there’s any correlation between scoring a bunch of points early and having that continue for the rest of the season.

A good question. Just because Zuerlein, Succop and Harrison Butker have has some big games so far, that doesn’t guarantee they’ll be great scorers in November and December.

So let’s look at some of the historical numbers.

Below see a chart showing all kickers from the last 10 years who ranked in the top 5 in scoring at the halfway point of the season. There are 53 of them (instead of just 50) because three years there was a tie at the No. 5 spot, with two kickers scoring the same number of points.

I’ve got them in order of first-half points, with Lawrence Tynes at the top of the list – he scored 94 points in the first half of the 2012 season.

There is no clean halfway point of a season, with the bye weeks, so I’m going with the first eight games for each player. And I wanted to take injuries out of it, so if a team used multiple kickers, I’m going with the team total.

Anyway, back to Nick’s question. Of these 53 elite kickers, only 11 continued on and also were top-5 scorers in the second half of the season. Another 10 (so 21 of 53) were at least top-10 scorers in their final eight games.

But 21 of the 53 kickers ended up fizzling, finishing as below-average scorers in their final eight games. (There are 32 teams, so if a player ranked no higher than 17th in the second half of the season – relative to the other 31 teams – I’m calling him below-average.)

On the chart below, players who were top-5 scorers in both the first half and the second half of the season are in bold. If a player tailed off and was a below-average scorer in the second half, there’s a black dot next to his name.

TOP-5 KICKERS AT HALFWAY POINT
YearPlayer1-8Rk9-16Rk
2012• Tynes, NYG9415121T
2014Gostkowski, N.E.881686
2015Gostkowski, N.E.881638T
2012Bryant, Atl.8226114
2013Crosby, GB.8215914
2012Gostkowski, N.E.803732T
2011• Ravens (tm)8015018T
2008Akers, Phil.801648T
2013Prater, Den.792717
2011Akers, S.F.782881
2016Bryant, Atl.781T801
2008Giants (tm)782713
2010Janikowski, Oak.781647
2016• Sturgis, Phil.781T5719
2013Gostkowski, N.E.773812
2011Crosby, GB.773T6312
2011Bailey, Dall.773T5813
2011• Hanson, Det.773T4920T
2014Vinatieri, Ind.7626412
2015• McManus, Den.7624923
2014• Tucker, Balt.7535420
2007Bironas, Ten.7515813T
2015• Tucker, Balt.7435417T
2009• Tynes, NYG7415221T
2016• Vinatieri, Ind.7435123T
2012• Bears (tm)7444726T
2007• Vinatieri, Ind.7424426T
2007Gostkowski, N.E.733T648
2016• Lambo, S.D.7344725
2007Folk, Dall.733T5813T
2009• Gostkowski, N.E.7325221T
2008Gostkowski, N.E.723761
2015Gano, Car.724742
2014Parkey, Phil.724783
2016Hopkins, Was.725668
2013• Saints (tm)7244830
2009Akers, Phil.713683T
2008• Bironas, Ten.7145619
2014• Sturgis, Mia.7155717T
2015• Bucs (tm)7154724T
2012• Janikowski, Oak.7154726T
2013Vinatieri, Ind.705698
2008Elam, Atl.695T6014
2010• Carpenter, Mia.6924626
2009Saints (tm)6945711T
2008• Gould, Chi.695T5023T
2009Kaeding, S.D.685T781
2007Crosby, GB.685T732T
2009Longwell, Min.685T648
2007Hanson, Det.685T5416
2010• Bironas, Ten.683T4229
2010Bryant, Atl.683T6013T
2010Vinatieri, Ind.675629T

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index