I posted a Factoid earlier in the week, showing how a bunch of kickers are scoring a lot of points. Seven teams are on pace to score over 149 kicking points, and Greg Zuerlein and Ryan Succop look like they might challenge the all-time scoring record for kickers.
But one reader, Nick Fritz, pointed out that he doesn’t so much care what kickers have done so far. He’s more interested in what they’re going to do in the coming weeks. And he wanted to know if there’s any correlation between scoring a bunch of points early and having that continue for the rest of the season.
A good question. Just because Zuerlein, Succop and Harrison Butker have has some big games so far, that doesn’t guarantee they’ll be great scorers in November and December.
So let’s look at some of the historical numbers.
Below see a chart showing all kickers from the last 10 years who ranked in the top 5 in scoring at the halfway point of the season. There are 53 of them (instead of just 50) because three years there was a tie at the No. 5 spot, with two kickers scoring the same number of points.
I’ve got them in order of first-half points, with Lawrence Tynes at the top of the list – he scored 94 points in the first half of the 2012 season.
There is no clean halfway point of a season, with the bye weeks, so I’m going with the first eight games for each player. And I wanted to take injuries out of it, so if a team used multiple kickers, I’m going with the team total.
Anyway, back to Nick’s question. Of these 53 elite kickers, only 11 continued on and also were top-5 scorers in the second half of the season. Another 10 (so 21 of 53) were at least top-10 scorers in their final eight games.
But 21 of the 53 kickers ended up fizzling, finishing as below-average scorers in their final eight games. (There are 32 teams, so if a player ranked no higher than 17th in the second half of the season – relative to the other 31 teams – I’m calling him below-average.)
On the chart below, players who were top-5 scorers in both the first half and the second half of the season are in bold. If a player tailed off and was a below-average scorer in the second half, there’s a black dot next to his name.
TOP-5 KICKERS AT HALFWAY POINT | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | 1-8 | Rk | 9-16 | Rk |
2012 | • Tynes, NYG | 94 | 1 | 51 | 21T |
2014 | Gostkowski, N.E. | 88 | 1 | 68 | 6 |
2015 | Gostkowski, N.E. | 88 | 1 | 63 | 8T |
2012 | Bryant, Atl. | 82 | 2 | 61 | 14 |
2013 | Crosby, GB. | 82 | 1 | 59 | 14 |
2012 | Gostkowski, N.E. | 80 | 3 | 73 | 2T |
2011 | • Ravens (tm) | 80 | 1 | 50 | 18T |
2008 | Akers, Phil. | 80 | 1 | 64 | 8T |
2013 | Prater, Den. | 79 | 2 | 71 | 7 |
2011 | Akers, S.F. | 78 | 2 | 88 | 1 |
2016 | Bryant, Atl. | 78 | 1T | 80 | 1 |
2008 | Giants (tm) | 78 | 2 | 71 | 3 |
2010 | Janikowski, Oak. | 78 | 1 | 64 | 7 |
2016 | • Sturgis, Phil. | 78 | 1T | 57 | 19 |
2013 | Gostkowski, N.E. | 77 | 3 | 81 | 2 |
2011 | Crosby, GB. | 77 | 3T | 63 | 12 |
2011 | Bailey, Dall. | 77 | 3T | 58 | 13 |
2011 | • Hanson, Det. | 77 | 3T | 49 | 20T |
2014 | Vinatieri, Ind. | 76 | 2 | 64 | 12 |
2015 | • McManus, Den. | 76 | 2 | 49 | 23 |
2014 | • Tucker, Balt. | 75 | 3 | 54 | 20 |
2007 | Bironas, Ten. | 75 | 1 | 58 | 13T |
2015 | • Tucker, Balt. | 74 | 3 | 54 | 17T |
2009 | • Tynes, NYG | 74 | 1 | 52 | 21T |
2016 | • Vinatieri, Ind. | 74 | 3 | 51 | 23T |
2012 | • Bears (tm) | 74 | 4 | 47 | 26T |
2007 | • Vinatieri, Ind. | 74 | 2 | 44 | 26T |
2007 | Gostkowski, N.E. | 73 | 3T | 64 | 8 |
2016 | • Lambo, S.D. | 73 | 4 | 47 | 25 |
2007 | Folk, Dall. | 73 | 3T | 58 | 13T |
2009 | • Gostkowski, N.E. | 73 | 2 | 52 | 21T |
2008 | Gostkowski, N.E. | 72 | 3 | 76 | 1 |
2015 | Gano, Car. | 72 | 4 | 74 | 2 |
2014 | Parkey, Phil. | 72 | 4 | 78 | 3 |
2016 | Hopkins, Was. | 72 | 5 | 66 | 8 |
2013 | • Saints (tm) | 72 | 4 | 48 | 30 |
2009 | Akers, Phil. | 71 | 3 | 68 | 3T |
2008 | • Bironas, Ten. | 71 | 4 | 56 | 19 |
2014 | • Sturgis, Mia. | 71 | 5 | 57 | 17T |
2015 | • Bucs (tm) | 71 | 5 | 47 | 24T |
2012 | • Janikowski, Oak. | 71 | 5 | 47 | 26T |
2013 | Vinatieri, Ind. | 70 | 5 | 69 | 8 |
2008 | Elam, Atl. | 69 | 5T | 60 | 14 |
2010 | • Carpenter, Mia. | 69 | 2 | 46 | 26 |
2009 | Saints (tm) | 69 | 4 | 57 | 11T |
2008 | • Gould, Chi. | 69 | 5T | 50 | 23T |
2009 | Kaeding, S.D. | 68 | 5T | 78 | 1 |
2007 | Crosby, GB. | 68 | 5T | 73 | 2T |
2009 | Longwell, Min. | 68 | 5T | 64 | 8 |
2007 | Hanson, Det. | 68 | 5T | 54 | 16 |
2010 | • Bironas, Ten. | 68 | 3T | 42 | 29 |
2010 | Bryant, Atl. | 68 | 3T | 60 | 13T |
2010 | Vinatieri, Ind. | 67 | 5 | 62 | 9T |
—Ian Allan