OAKLAND (at Buffalo)
The Raiders come off a shootout win, but we’re expecting a steep decline this week. Other than two big home outings against the Jets and Kansas City, Oakland has scored only 8 TDs in five games. Buffalo's defense is solid despite allowing Tampa Bay to score 27 points ...
... in this stadium last week. The Bills allowed only 6 TDs in their other five games. So about 2 TDs seems like the right estimate, making Oakland below average this week. … It’s not an ideal matchup for Derek Carr. Prior to last week, Buffalo had allowed only 2 TD passes in five games, while Carr had thrown only one in three straight. But as you play with the numbers, Carr looks at least somewhat palatable. He worked his way into form some last week, passing for 417 yards and 3 TDs against Kansas City. And maybe some holes will emerge with this defense. It’s now allowed ...
This report is taken from today's Week 8 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... over 325 passing yards in back-to-back games (against Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston). Buffalo played tough in its first four games, but none were against top-level quarterbacks. They’ve played Josh McCown and Trevor Siemian at home. They’ve played Cam Newton and Matt Ryan on the road, but those guys haven’t played as well this year as they have in the past. We’re putting Carr down for above-average passing yards, and he’ll probably get up to 2 TDs. … With the passing projection looking sort of decent, we’re putting the pass catchers near their usual kind of spots. Michael Crabtree tends to be the guy they look for around the end zone, but he’s not a burner -- doesn’t have enough speed to hit on longer pass plays. He’s averaging 56 yards, with 6 TDs in six games. Amari Cooper is the opposite; he’s not as reliable but has more potential to maybe hit on something deep. He’s been in a funk for most of the season (under 35 yards in five straight games) but busted out against Kansas City with 11 catches for 210 yards and 2 TDs. Also failed to come up with a couple of catchable balls, however, so we can’t say that he’s put his problems behind him permanently. Seth Roberts has been a big part of their red zone offense in the past but hasn’t made much of an impact this year -- 15 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown in seven games. … Jared Cook doesn’t have great hands; he’ll drop some (including a potential game-winning touchdown last week). But he’s having a pretty good year; he’s averaging 45 yards, with one touchdown. The Raiders also play Lee Smith a lot, and he used to play for the Bills, but Smith is primarily a blocker; he’s caught passes in only two games. … Marshawn Lynch is suspended, so those in need of a fill-in back for Week 8 will probably want to zero in on Jalen Richard. He probably will be their best back, and he might be better than Lynch anyway -- he’s got a lot more speed and is a lot better in the passing game. But DeAndre Washington might play just as much. Both of these smaller backs finished with 9 carries and averaged under 4 yards per attempt last week. Richard has been better as a pass catcher, with 12 more catches last year. They’ve both averaged about 2 catches per game this year, but Richard has done a lot more with his, averaging 12.8 yards per reception. If the Raiders wind up on the 1-yard line, they’ll probably send both Richard and Washington to the sidelines and have Jamize Olawale bang it in. But probably a 50-50 chance at best that the Raiders score any rushing touchdowns in this game (let alone from the 1-yard line). The Raiders have run for 3 TDs in their last five, while Buffalo’s defense has allowed 3 in its last five. … The Raiders Defense looks like a lesser option. Tyrod Taylor tends to take some sacks as he scrambles around, trying to buy time. He’s taken 61 sacks in his last 21 games -- almost 3 per week. But Oakland doesn’t have much of a pass rush. Khalil Mack played his college ball at Buffalo, so maybe he’s a little more juiced up this week, but the Raiders have only 12 sacks in seven games (only three teams have fewer). They had only 25 sacks all of last year. And Taylor is one of the best at not forcing passes -- just 14 interceptions in 35 starts as a pro. The Raiders, meanwhile, haven’t intercepted any passes this year. … Giorgio Tavecchio looks like a bottom-tier kicker. Buffalo has a tough defense, and Oakland’s offense has been sputtering anyway. Since Tavecchio opened the season with 14 and 9 points in his first two games, he’s scored only 24 in his last five. He’s also missed big kicks the last two games -- two field goals against Kansas City and a pivotal extra point against the Chargers.