At this time of the year, it makes sense to pay a lot more attention to strength of schedule. Now we’ve got a pretty good idea of what offenses are all about, but we also know a lot more about defenses – not what they did way back in 2016, but what they’re doing right now. And schedule says a lot about teams like the Jaguars, Lions and Rams.
Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee and Baltimore aren’t elite teams. But they could ride easy schedules to playoff berths. Not a lot of meat left on the schedules of those teams. And Kansas City, while it has lost three of its last fourth, should get back on the upswing.
On the flip side, the Rams, Cardinals, Saints and Raiders have difficult remaining schedules.
On the numbers here, I’m looking at the next six games for each team. (For fantasy football, most aren’t interested in Week 17.)
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 6 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Jacksonville | 18 | 31 | .367 |
Detroit | 18 | 31 | .367 |
Tennessee | 19 | 31 | .380 |
Baltimore | 20 | 29 | .408 |
Kansas City | 21 | 29 | .420 |
Green Bay | 21 | 29 | .420 |
San Francisco | 22 | 26 | .458 |
Chicago | 23 | 27 | .460 |
Cleveland | 23 | 26 | .469 |
Denver | 24 | 27 | .471 |
Cincinnati | 23 | 25 | .479 |
Houston | 24 | 26 | .480 |
Dallas | 24 | 26 | .480 |
Tampa Bay | 24 | 25 | .490 |
Philadelphia | 24 | 25 | .490 |
Pittsburgh | 25 | 25 | .500 |
LA Chargers | 25 | 24 | .510 |
NY Giants | 27 | 25 | .519 |
NY Jets | 26 | 24 | .520 |
Washington | 25 | 23 | .521 |
New England | 26 | 23 | .531 |
Carolina | 26 | 23 | .531 |
Seattle | 27 | 23 | .540 |
Atlanta | 26 | 22 | .542 |
Minnesota | 27 | 22 | .551 |
Buffalo | 28 | 22 | .560 |
Miami | 28 | 21 | .571 |
Indianapolis | 28 | 21 | .571 |
Oakland | 29 | 21 | .580 |
New Orleans | 29 | 21 | .580 |
Arizona | 28 | 20 | .583 |
LA Rams | 32 | 17 | .653 |
Some are more interested not in wins and losses but what defenses are doing. Which teams are facing the leakiest defenses?
If we go that route, we still see Baltimore, Jacksonville and Tennessee up at the top. Denver winds up in the No. 4 spot, but it doesn’t seem to have the quarterback or offensive system to do much with that favorable schedule.
The Colts, Browns, Packers and Saints project to play the toughest defenses.
As with the first chart, I’m not looking at the remaining 7-8 games for each team. The chart below shows the average points allowed for just the next six games for each team.
POINTS VERSION (next 6 games) | |
---|---|
Team | W |
Baltimore | 23.9 |
Jacksonville | 23.8 |
Tennessee | 23.8 |
Denver | 23.4 |
NY Giants | 23.3 |
Oakland | 23.0 |
Pittsburgh | 23.0 |
Chicago | 22.8 |
Tampa Bay | 22.6 |
Buffalo | 22.5 |
Dallas | 22.4 |
Kansas City | 22.1 |
Philadelphia | 21.9 |
San Francisco | 21.8 |
Miami | 21.8 |
Carolina | 21.7 |
Houston | 21.5 |
Cincinnati | 21.5 |
NY Jets | 21.4 |
Detroit | 21.4 |
Washington | 21.4 |
New England | 21.4 |
LA Chargers | 21.4 |
Seattle | 21.2 |
Arizona | 21.2 |
Atlanta | 21.1 |
LA Rams | 21.0 |
Minnesota | 21.0 |
New Orleans | 20.7 |
Green Bay | 20.7 |
Cleveland | 19.9 |
Indianapolis | 19.6 |
—Ian Allan