Los Angeles Chargers (at Jacksonville)
A little over a year ago, the Chargers walloped Jacksonville by a 38-14 margin. Philip Rivers threw 4 TDs, and Melvin Gordon rushed for 100 yards and a score. But that was then. Now, the Jaguars have the league's top-ranked scoring defense, and have allowed just 10 touchdowns ...
... all season. It will be a surprise if the Chargers score more than 2 TDs in this one. ... Melvin Gordon should be the Chargers' best player this week. The Jaguars -- and this is remarkable -- are ranked just 27th in run defense. Four different teams have rushed for at least 134 yards against Jacksonville. The teams that failed to reach that total either fell way behind (Houston, Indianapolis), have terrible ground games (Cincinnati), or curiously chose not to run it (Pittsburgh). The Chargers have a bottom-10 rushing offense, but Gordon is a ...
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
... good enough back, averaging 4.0 yards per carry and 66 yards per game. He'd been nursing a foot injury entering the bye, but should be healthier with the week off. If the team isn't having a good day running it (Jacksonville acquired Marcell Dareus last week, and that should help their run defense) or falls behind, Gordon should be a part of the passing game. Just 2 receptions the last two games, but 5-plus receptions four times in the first six; he's averaging 29 receiving yards. Austin Ekeler and perhaps Branden Oliver will get change-of-pace work; that duo combined for 40 percent of the snaps at New England (with Gordon dealing with the foot injury). Ekeler's the No. 2, but Oliver was at least active. But Gordon will get the vast majority of the work. He had one of his three best games all season at Jacksonville last year, carrying 24 times for 102 yards and a touchdown. ... Coming out of his bye, probably best to leave Philip Rivers parked on the bench. The Jaguars have been really doing a number on opposing passing games. Quarterbacks with more than 200 passing yards against this defense: Marcus Mariota (215; he completed 56 percent), Ben Roethlisberger (312; he had an awful game, throwing 5 interceptions) and Josh McCown (224; he took 5 sacks and fumbled 3 times). That's the list. Jacksonville has also allowed just 4 TD passes, 2 fewer than any other team (and much fewer than most). Rivers is having a decent enough year, at 254 yards per game with 13 TD passes. On the road against the league's top-ranked pass defense, he'll be beating the odds if he throws for even 220 yards, and probably only 1 TD. Rivers has been pretty good at avoiding sacks and turnovers this season, but his worst moments have occurred against defenses with strong pass rushes or opportunistic secondaries. Jacksonville, with 35 sacks and 10 interceptions, has both. ... Crowding could be an issue for these pass catchers (and with a lesser projection, we're not particularly excited about any of them). Keenan Allen is playing pretty much full-time and ranks 12th in yardage, but he's been a little disappointing. His only touchdown came in Week 1, and he's been under 70 yards in four straight. In this matchup, that streak probably won't end. Tyrell Williams is playing the 2nd-most snaps, but he hasn't reached 30 yards or scored since Week 4. He looks like a prime candidate to start taking a back seat to rookie Mike Williams, whose role is gradually increasing. He got 40 percent of the snaps in the last game, and they should try to get him more involved. Travis Benjamin, meanwhile, has been the most effective receiver lately, with 3 TDs in the last two games. That includes a punt return and another score erased by a questionable penalty. Better to set these wideouts aside, however, for a more favorable situation. Jacksonville, believe it or not, has allowed only 1 touchdown to a wide receiver all season. Benjamin scored twice and Tyrell Williams once in last year's game, for those willing to take their chances against this secondary. ... Hunter Henry seems to get forgotten at times in the offense. In half (four) of his games, he's finished under 20 yards. But he still played nearly two-thirds of the snaps when that happened against New England, and he'd been productive entering that game: a touchdown or at least 70 receiving yards in four straight prior to that. The Jaguars haven't been quite as dominant against tight ends, allowing 3 TDs to the position (and 79 yards to Tyler Kroft last week). Antonio Gates scored in last year's meeting, but he's very much been crowded out of the offense. He hasn't scored since Week 2 or gone over 30 yards all season. Only in TD-only formats is there a chance he'll help fantasy teams, and he seems to be well down the list of potential targets right now. ... Nick Novak has totaled just 9 kicking points the last three games. Not a good idea to start a kicker on the road against the league's stingiest defense. You might think opponents would be settling for field goals, but in fact only two teams have allowed fewer than Jacksonville (11). ... The Chargers Defense has potential if the game goes a certain way. It's 4th in sacks (26), and although Blake Bortles has taken only 11, he's been dropped 8 times in the team's three losses. But if this defense can't stop the ground game, it won't get many opportunities to get after the quarterback. Bortles' tendency to serve up turnovers is well known, but the ground game has insulated him from those mistakes (just 7 in eight games), and the Chargers haven't been opportunistic anyway (5 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries). Travis Benjamin is a weapon on returns, giving the defense gets a boost in that regard.