PITTSBURGH (vs. Tennessee)
Pittsburgh's offense has been a huge disappointment, with only 17 touchdowns. They've exceeded 2 TDs in only one game all year. But they have the personnel and the schedule to turn things around, and that could begin on Thursday night. They've tended ...
... to be a lot better at home over the years, and four the next five are at Heinz Field. They're also playing what appears to be a below-average defense -- only 10 have allowed more points. The Titans have allowed only 7 TDs in their last five games, but all of those were against ho-hum offenses -- Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals. We're expecting ...
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... the Steelers to take a step forward Thursday night, maybe putting up top-5 numbers the rest of the season. ... Ben Roethlisberger has been frustrating to watch. He's averaging only 255 yards (slightly above average), and he's thrown only 12 TDs. He's an older quarterback with eroding skills -- he's missed some of the throws he used to make. But we're figuring this could be or should be the week he gets back to being more of a big-time quarterback. He made a couple of key throws late at Indianapolis, and he's long played a lot better at home, averaging about 3 TDs per game in recent years. He's played only three games at home this year, and all have been against good pass defenses -- 2 TDs each against Minnesota and Cincinnati, and none against the top-rated Jaguars. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been a disaster at times against the pass. The two best quarterbacks they've played (Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson) both threw 4 TDs. Derek Carr, Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton all went over 260 yards, with 2 TDs each. So as poorly as Roethlisberger has played, this looks like the week where he'll probably dust off his A game, putting up about 300 yards and 3 TDs. ... Going hand-in-hand with the Roethlisberger projection, we're ranking the pass catchers higher than usual. Antonio Brown has been a disappointment so far, scoring only 3 TDs, but he's still probably the best wide receiver in the game. He's gone over 150 yards in three games, and he's long tended to be over twice as effective as a scorer in home games. Very likely that he goes over 100 yards and scores in this game. JuJu Smith-Schuster is fast developing into one of the league's best No. 2 receivers. He's scored three weeks in a row, and with his size, he's a friendly target -- he's gone for 290 yards in the last two weeks. Martavis Bryant is streakier, but he has the size and speed to maybe hit on a long touchdown. His best game of the season came when he caught 3 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown at home back in Week 2. Bryant has groused about his role, but he seems to be out of the doghouse -- caught 3 passes for 42 yards last week, with a key 2-point conversion late. If Roethlisberger starts putting up a lot more yards and touchdowns in these remaining games (like we think he will) there's a decent chance Bryant will re-emerge as a top-25 receiver. ... The matchup isn't as good for LeVeon Bell. Tennessee's defense is a lot better against the run. Only five teams have allowed fewer rushing yards, and the Titans have allowed only 4 rushing touchdowns (versus 17 TDs through the air). But Bell is good enough to put up top-5 numbers against any defense. He's averaging 93 rushing and 28 receiving yards, and he's scored 5 TDs in his last seven games. As the Steelers get their passing game firing on all cylinders, that will make him particularly hard to handle. ... The Steelers are using multiple tight ends, and neither looks appealing. Jesse James hasn't even caught a pass in three of his last four games; his only touchdowns came back in the opener. Vance McDonald is one of the league's faster tight ends but has long been plagued by suspect hands. He's caught 5 passes for 79 yards in his last four games, and just caught his first touchdown last week. ... We're ranking the Steelers Defense lower than usual. It's an aggressive group; only two teams have more sacks. But Marcus Mariota is one of the more careful quarterbacks around -- he gets the ball out of his hands quickly, and he doesn't force many passes. In his last 23 games, he's taken only 35 sacks and thrown only 15 interceptions. And the Titans have fumbled a league-low 5 times. Mariota has been a little down recently, at least. He's been sacked 3 and 4 times the last two weeks, with an interception in both games. ... Chris Boswell looks like a top-10 kicker. He's averaging 8.3 points per game, and the Steelers tend to play better at home. Tennessee has been only average defensively, with kickers averaging 7.7 points against them.