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Revised offensive projections

Updated run-pass numbers for all 32 teams

It’s early. We still need to see what happens in the Monday night game. But I’ve got my initial draft completed, showing what I expect the offenses to do in the remaining six weeks of the season. The way I’ve got this thing set up, the teams and players are all tied together.

The Eagles, Saints and Patriots look like the teams most likely to lead the league in touchdowns the rest of the way. Those are the only teams, in fact, that I think have much of a chance of being the scoring leaders in Weeks 12-17. (I’ve got a big dropoff down to Pittsburgh and Washington, my Nos. 4-5 teams.)

Down at the other end, I’ve got a crowded basement, with 10 teams projecting to average under 2 TDs per week the rest of the way. That’s offensive touchdowns (rushing and passing). Andy is separately handling the work on the defensive and special teams scores.

On the figures below, you’re seeing 16-game totals. Those represent what I think each team would do if a new 16-game season was starting today (and it played in those 16 games like I expect it will be play in the next six weeks).

TEAM OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS (touchdowns)
TeamPassRunTotal
Philadelphia33.917.151.0
New Orleans29.321.650.9
New England35.513.949.4
Pittsburgh29.914.744.6
Washington28.814.443.2
Dallas24.516.340.8
Atlanta26.413.640.0
Carolina22.417.640.0
Tennessee21.618.440.0
LA Chargers28.511.239.7
Seattle32.56.438.9
Oakland25.612.838.4
Kansas City26.412.038.4
LA Rams23.215.238.4
Jacksonville18.416.835.2
Minnesota22.412.835.2
Baltimore24.010.634.6
Buffalo20.813.634.4
Detroit27.76.434.1
Cincinnati26.96.433.3
Tampa Bay27.25.632.8
NY Jets21.610.432.0
Miami24.86.431.2
Green Bay18.412.831.2
Arizona20.89.630.4
Houston20.89.630.4
Cleveland16.812.028.8
NY Giants20.08.828.8
Indianapolis19.59.128.6
San Francisco16.611.428.0
Chicago15.212.027.2
Denver17.39.626.9

For rushing production, I’ve got four teams from the South divisions plus the Eagles leading the way. Those are the teams that are cranking out the rushing yards and touchdowns right now.

On these, I’m listing them as per-game numbers, with rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The points is a fantasy grade assuming 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

Running backs, of course, also contribute by catching passes and touchdowns, but that production isn’t reflected here.

TEAM OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS (rushing)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
New Orleans1401.3522.1
Carolina1501.1021.6
Jacksonville1451.0520.8
Philadelphia1401.0720.4
Tennessee1201.1518.9
Dallas1251.0218.6
Chicago130.7517.5
LA Rams117.9517.4
Buffalo120.8517.1
Atlanta115.8516.6
Pittsburgh105.9216.0
Kansas City115.7516.0
Green Bay110.8015.8
Minnesota110.8015.8
New England105.8715.7
Washington100.9015.4
Cleveland105.7515.0
Baltimore110.6615.0
Denver110.6014.6
NY Giants110.5514.3
Oakland93.8014.1
Houston105.6014.1
NY Jets95.6513.4
San Francisco90.7113.3
LA Chargers90.7013.2
Indianapolis90.5712.4
Seattle92.4011.6
Arizona70.6010.6
Detroit75.409.9
Tampa Bay75.359.6
Cincinnati70.409.4
Miami70.409.4

For passing production, I’ve got the Patriots in the No. 1 spot by a lot – way better than the Steelers, Seahawks and Washington.

Similarly, I’ve got the Bears in last place by a lot – way behind the Browns, Broncos and Cardinals.

On these, you’re looking at per-game numbers, with 6 points for every touchdown pass and 1 point for every 10 passing yards.

TEAM OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS (passing)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
New England3102.2244.3
Pittsburgh2901.8740.2
Seattle2802.0340.2
Washington2851.8039.3
New Orleans2801.8339.0
Philadelphia2552.1238.2
Tampa Bay2701.7037.2
LA Chargers2651.7837.2
Detroit2651.7336.9
Atlanta2651.6536.4
Oakland2651.6036.1
Kansas City2501.6534.9
Tennessee2551.3533.6
Cincinnati2351.6833.6
Miami2351.5532.8
LA Rams2401.4532.7
Dallas2351.5332.7
Baltimore2331.5032.3
Minnesota2301.4031.4
Carolina2251.4030.9
NY Jets2251.3530.6
Indianapolis2301.2230.3
Houston2251.3030.3
San Francisco2401.0430.2
NY Giants2201.2529.5
Green Bay2251.1529.4
Buffalo2151.3029.3
Jacksonville2201.1528.9
Arizona2101.3028.8
Denver2201.0828.5
Cleveland2101.0527.3
Chicago190.9524.7

I will make additional adjustments to these numbers as injuries and developments trickle in tonight and tomorrow morning. Then these team projections will heavily influenced the revised player listings that you receiver tomorrow afternoon.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index