Are games on Thanksgiving higher scorer? Sometimes it seems that way – like when Sterling Sharpe and Randy Moss kept catching touchdowns in Dallas in the ‘90s, or when O.J. Simpson ran for 273 yards at Detroit in 1976. But is there anything to this? Or is it just chance?
I don’t think there’s an off-the-charts bonus, but it does seem like there’s a little more offense.
In the last 10 years, there’s been an average of 46.9 points scored in these games. That’s 2 more than the league average – almost a 5 percent bump.
| THANKSGIVING GAMES (last 10 years) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Winner | Loser |
| 2007 | at Dallas 34 | NY Jets 3 |
| 2007 | Green Bay 37 | at Detroit 26 |
| 2007 | Indianapolis 31 | at Atlanta 13 |
| 2008 | at Philadelphia 48 | Arizona 20 |
| 2008 | at Dallas 34 | Seattle 9 |
| 2008 | Tennessee 47 | at Detroit 10 |
| 2009 | at Denver 26 | NY Giants 6 |
| 2009 | at Dallas 24 | Oakland 7 |
| 2009 | Green Bay 34 | at Detroit 12 |
| 2010 | at NY Jets 26 | Cincinnati 10 |
| 2010 | New England 45 | at Detroit 24 |
| 2010 | New Orleans 30 | at Dallas 27 |
| 2011 | at Dallas 20 | Miami 19 |
| 2011 | at Baltimore 16 | San Francisco 6 |
| 2011 | Green Bay 27 | at Detroit 15 |
| 2012 | Washington 38 | at Dallas 31 |
| 2012 | New England 49 | at NY Jets 19 |
| 2012 | Houston 34 | at Detroit 31 |
| 2013 | at Dallas 31 | Oakland 24 |
| 2013 | at Detroit 40 | Green Bay 10 |
| 2013 | at Baltimore 22 | Pittsburgh 20 |
| 2014 | at Detroit 34 | Chicago 17 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia 33 | at Dallas 10 |
| 2014 | Seattle 19 | at San Francisco 3 |
| 2015 | at Detroit 45 | Philadelphia 14 |
| 2015 | Carolina 33 | at Dallas 14 |
| 2015 | Chicago 17 | at Green Bay 13 |
| 2016 | at Dallas 31 | Washington 26 |
| 2016 | at Detroit 16 | Minnesota 13 |
| 2016 | Pittsburgh 28 | at Indianapolis 7 |
The fairest comparison comes with divisional opponents. There have been 16 such matchups in the last 15 years. With those games, we’ve got a nice little science experiment, with the same two teams playing in the same season – once on Thanksgiving, and once in a more traditional setting.
And for that small but not insignificant data set, we’ve seen almost 4 extra points per game. There’s been an average of 45.3 points scored in those games, versus only 41.7 in the other matchups. (Games inside divisions tend to be lower scoring – because the teams are more familiar with their schemes and personnel, I think).
Of those 16 repeat matchups, on 10 of them there was a least a touchdown more of scoring on Thanksgiving. On only four of them was there at least a touchdown more of scoring in the other game.
So in my opinion, yes, there is a little more scoring in these games.
| DIVISIONAL THANKSGIVING GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Winner | Loser | Points | Other G | Diff |
| 2002 | at Dallas 27 | Washington 20 | 47 | 34 | 13 |
| 2003 | at Detroit 22 | Green Bay 14 | 36 | 37 | -1 |
| 2006 | at Kansas City 19 | Denver 10 | 29 | 15 | 14 |
| 2007 | Green Bay 37 | at Detroit 26 | 63 | 47 | 16 |
| 2009 | Green Bay 34 | at Detroit 12 | 46 | 26 | 20 |
| 2011 | Green Bay 27 | at Detroit 15 | 42 | 86 | -44 |
| 2012 | Washington 38 | at Dallas 31 | 69 | 46 | 23 |
| 2012 | New England 49 | at NY Jets 19 | 68 | 55 | 13 |
| 2013 | at Detroit 40 | Green Bay 10 | 50 | 31 | 19 |
| 2013 | at Baltimore 22 | Pittsburgh 20 | 42 | 35 | 7 |
| 2014 | at Detroit 34 | Chicago 17 | 51 | 34 | 17 |
| 2014 | Seattle 19 | at San Francisco 3 | 22 | 24 | -2 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia 33 | at Dallas 10 | 43 | 65 | -22 |
| 2015 | Chicago 17 | at Green Bay 13 | 30 | 44 | -14 |
| 2016 | at Dallas 31 | Washington 26 | 57 | 50 | 7 |
| 2016 | at Detroit 16 | Minnesota 13 | 29 | 38 | -9 |
—Ian Allan