KANSAS CITY (vs. Buffalo)
Kansas City's offense has tailed off. It scored 17 touchdowns during its 5-0 start, but it's scored only 7 TDs while going 1-4 in its last five. But it's got a good chance to get back on track here. Buffalo's defense similarly has been slipping (allowing only ...
6 TDs in its first five, but 19 touchdowns in its last five). The Bills have allowed at least 4 TDs in three straight games. Excellent chance for Kansas City to start getting things right with about 3 touchdowns. ... Kareem Hunt remarkably has gone seven games in a row without getting the ball in the end zone, but he very easily could score multiple touchdowns this week. Buffalo's defense has completely fallen apart recently, allowing...
This report is taken from today's Week 12 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... over 145 rushing yards in three straight games, with 11 touchdowns (6 against the Saints, but 3 and 2 in their last two other games). Hunt hasn't been productive recently, but he's healthy and he's still running hard. The line in front of him is fine. He's averaged 53 rushing and 34 receiving yards in his last five games, but he looks like a shoo-in for over 100 total yards this week. ... Alex Smith was an MVP candidate a month ago, and that can be put away. He's averaged 232 yards in his last three games, with 3 TDs. That's more in line with what he is -- a reminder of why the team used its first-round pick on Patrick Mahomes (who'll be their starter on opening day next year). Andy Reid even poked around the idea that it's Smith who needs to pick up his game to get the offense rolling again. A good chance that will happen here, with Buffalo not having much of a pass rush and hemorrhaging rushing production -- making everything easier. Smith won't necessarily pile up a ton of yards, but he might. The Bills have allowed over 280 passing yards in four of their last six games, and the two exceptions were games where they were simply steamrolled by the run (Jets, Saints). Smith is also one of the more mobile quarterbacks; he's averaging 20 rushing yards. ... We're ranking the pass catchers a little higher than usual. Kansas City should win this game, and there should be a healthy amount of passing production along the way. Travis Kelce is on top of his game right now, on pace for almost 1,200 yards. He's scored in half of the games (though Kansas City last week oddly became the first team that didn't throw a touchdown pass to a tight end against the Giants). Tyreek Hill might be the most explosive player in the league, and as the running game is established, that potentially could make it easier to set him up for a long touchdown. He's averaging 69 receiving yards, and he's scored 5 TDs (including a punt return). Kansas City oddly hasn't used him much in the running game (47 yards in 10 games). Hill had a glute or hamstring injury that they were looking at in the Giants game, but it doesn't appear to be anything too serious. ... Kansas City doesn't use its other wide receivers much. Albert Wilson has sat out the last two weeks with a hamstring injury and didn't practice at all last week, so he doesn't look particularly likely to play. Wilson has gone over 60 yards in two of his seven games, and he's scored 2 TDs. Demarcus Robinson has been a starting outside receiver since Chris Conley got hurt, but with little effect. He's been under 20 yards in four of his five starts and hasn't scored all year. ... The Kansas City Defense likely will face Tyrod Taylor. The Bills started Nathan Peterman last week, but he's not ready -- he threw 5 interceptions in his first game, including 3 in the first quarter. Taylor is far more experienced and has a strong history of protecting the ball. In 38 starts the last three years, he's thrown only 15 interceptions and lost only 5 fumbles. So this doesn't look like a great matchup for takeaways. Kansas City has 9 interceptions so far (slightly above average). It's more promising for sacks. Taylor holds the ball longer than other quarterbacks, trying to buy time with scrambles, so he typically takes about 3 sacks per week. It's at 29 sacks this year in about nine games worth of playing time. But Kansas City doesn't have a great pass rush (just 19 sacks in 10 games). Tyreek Hill is dealing with a glute or hamstring injury, so he's probably a little less likely than usual to score on a punt return this week. ... Harrison Butker is averaging over 11 points per game, and he may benefit from his team facing a defense that's been in freefall recently. The Bills have allowed at least 34 points three weeks in a row, and the opposing kickers have scored double-digit points in all of those games. Weather will need to be looked into later in the week. Our policy on these kind of kickers is to assume on Wednesday that the conditions will be playable, then on Friday look more closely at the forecast (when it should be more accurate).