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Revised offensive projections

Patriots, Eagles, Saints (surprise?) should have the dominant offenses

As I look at the final quarter of the season, I see three offenses standing above the rest – way above the rest of the field. The Eagles, Patriots and Saints. No other team is even close.

If you were re-drafting teams today, those are the offenses you would want to be loading up on, I think.

The individual player projections went out yesterday in the Redrafter. Here are the team numbers behind those figures (the way I do it, I’ve got players and teams tied together).

For touchdowns, I tend to think of teams in seasons. If an offense averages 3 TDs per game, it’s good. If it gets up to 50-plus for a 16-game season, it’s really good. So when putting numbers down, I tend to think of “seasons” (even if there’s just four games left). So for these, I’m looking mainly at the next three weeks, and then projecting that out to a make-believe 16-game season.

Some teams will rest players in Week 17, but that is given no weight in the rankings.

For offensive touchdowns, I’ve got Philadelphia, New England and New Orleans as the big three, with a half-dozen offenses on the next tier.

I’ve got a six offenses definitely averaging under 2 TDs in their remaining games – Broncos, Bears, Giants, Colts, Browns and Texans.

TEAM PROJECTIONS (offensive TDs)
TeamPassRunTotal
Philadelphia36.316.552.8
New England35.216.852.0
New Orleans28.023.251.2
Pittsburgh31.211.843.0
Minnesota26.416.542.9
Washington28.014.442.4
LA Chargers28.811.240.0
LA Rams25.614.440.0
Seattle32.87.240.0
Carolina22.116.838.9
Oakland25.113.638.7
Tennessee19.219.238.4
Atlanta25.312.838.1
Dallas21.615.236.8
Green Bay24.012.836.8
Kansas City25.910.136.0
NY Jets22.711.534.2
Detroit27.26.733.9
Arizona24.09.633.6
Buffalo20.013.633.6
Cincinnati27.26.433.6
Tampa Bay26.76.933.6
Baltimore20.312.332.6
Miami25.17.232.3
Jacksonville17.614.432.0
San Francisco18.712.331.0
Houston20.88.829.6
Cleveland16.011.227.2
Indianapolis18.47.225.6
NY Giants18.47.225.6
Chicago15.29.624.8
Denver16.36.923.2

For rushing production, I’ve got the Saints as the clear No. 1 right now (projecting to average 3 fantasy points per game more than any other offense in the final month of the season).

On these, teams are ordered by fantasy points (using 6 for rushing touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards). Note that with the Saints, they’re ranked No. 1 without accounting for all of that receiving production by Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram – making them even better.

TEAM PROJECTIONS (rushing per game)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
New Orleans1501.4523.7
Philadelphia1471.0320.9
Carolina1351.0519.8
Tennessee1201.2019.2
Dallas130.9518.7
New England1201.0518.3
Jacksonville125.9017.9
Minnesota1151.0317.7
Buffalo120.8517.1
Baltimore118.7716.4
Atlanta115.8016.3
LA Rams105.9015.9
Washington105.9015.9
Green Bay110.8015.8
Chicago115.6015.1
Pittsburgh105.7414.9
NY Jets105.7214.8
Oakland97.8514.8
Cleveland105.7014.7
Kansas City107.6314.5
San Francisco95.7714.1
LA Chargers95.7013.7
Denver105.4313.1
Miami100.4512.7
Houston90.5512.3
Indianapolis95.4512.2
NY Giants95.4512.2
Seattle95.4512.2
Arizona80.6011.6
Tampa Bay90.4311.6
Detroit72.429.7
Cincinnati70.409.4

For passing production, I’ve got the Patriots, Steelers and Eagles as the top 3. Carson Wentz is doing the best job putting the ball in the end zone, but he doesn’t throw for as many yards as a lot of the other passers.

TEAM PROJECTIONS (passing per game)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
New England2952.2042.7
Pittsburgh2801.9539.7
Philadelphia2522.2738.8
LA Chargers2801.8038.8
Washington2801.7538.5
New Orleans2751.7538.0
Seattle2552.0537.8
Detroit2701.7037.2
Tampa Bay2701.6737.0
LA Rams2601.6035.6
Oakland2601.5735.4
Minnesota2551.6535.4
Atlanta2571.5835.2
Kansas City2501.6234.7
Arizona2451.5033.5
Cincinnati2301.7033.2
Green Bay2401.5033.0
San Francisco2551.1732.5
Miami2251.5731.9
NY Jets2301.4231.5
Houston2351.3031.3
Tennessee2351.2030.7
Carolina2201.3830.3
Dallas2201.3530.1
Baltimore2201.2729.6
Indianapolis2251.1529.4
NY Giants2251.1529.4
Jacksonville2251.1029.1
Buffalo2151.2529.0
Cleveland2151.0027.5
Denver2101.0227.1
Chicago170.9522.7

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index