KANSAS CITY (vs. L.A. Chargers)
Back in Week 3, Kansas City won at Los Angeles, moving to 3-0 (while the Chargers dropped to 0-3). But that seems like a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away...
Kansas City at that time was leading the league in scoring, but the offense in the ensuing 10 games has scored only 19 touchdowns. The Chargers, meanwhile, have grown into one of the league's best defenses. They've allowed only 16 touchdowns in their last 10 games. If this game were to be played on a neutral field, the Chargers ...
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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...would be heavily favored -- they've won seven of their last nine, while Kansas City is just 2-6 after their fast start. While Kansas City has won the last seven in a row in this series, probably best to just stick with the better team. About 2 TDs seems like the right number for Kansas City's struggling offense. ... The Chargers rank 29th in run defense, and only the Patriots are allowing more yards per carry. So no doubt Kansas City will see if it can get Kareem Hunt going. But Los Angeles appears to have fixed most of its issues with its run defense. It's held three straight opponents under 90 rushing yards, and it was a fake punt away from holding Jacksonville under 100. Hunt ran for 172 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, but a repeat doesn't look likely. Kansas City's offense has gone the opposite direction. It averaged 164 rushing yards in its first four games, with 6 rushing touchdowns, but it's averaged only 92 yards in its last eight, with only 2 TDs. A decent-enough matchup for Hunt, but unlikely he'll put up difference-making stats. He's averaged only 55 rushing and 28 receiving yards in his last eight games, with 2 TDs (both on Sunday against the Raiders). ... Alex Smith is having a good year. He started off the year hot, and since he last saw the Chargers, he's averaged 273 passing and 30 rushing yards, with 16 touchdowns. But he doesn't have a fantasy friendly playing style. Ball security is a huge part of his game, so he tends to miss out on too many scoring opportunities. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in only four of his last 10 games. Here he's running into a defense that's playing about as well against the pass as anyone in the league. The Chargers have a strong pass rush, and they also have talent in their secondary. In their last 10 games they've allowed an average of only 222 passing yards, with only 9 TD passes. Of the last 10 quarterbacks to start against the Chargers, only one has thrown more than one touchdown. And some good ones in there -- Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady. Smith has thrown 2 TDs in three straight games against the Chargers, but this defense is a lot better. We're expecting about 230 yards and a touchdown. ... The Chargers might have some kind of feel for how to play against Travis Kelce. He's caught only one pass in each of his last two games against them. But he's an elite, difference-making tight end, and probably best not to get into the game of trying to plug in a lesser tight end in a more favorable matchup. Kelce caught 5 passes for 74 yards in his other game against San Diego a year ago. And he's playing great ball right now. He's scored 5 TDs in his last seven games, and he's gone for over 70 yards in five of his last six. Los Angeles has allowed only 3 TDs to tight ends, but two of them have come in the last two weeks. ... Tyreek Hill is streaky; he's gone for more than 41 yards in only six of his last 10 games. But he's got the big-play potential, and tough to sit down a receiver who's always just one play away finishing with a big week. He finished with 77 yards and a touchdown in the earlier meeting, and he scored in both Chargers games last year (once on a punt return). In his last 10 games, Hill has averaged 73 receiving and 4 rushing yards, with 5 TDs. ... Kansas City doesn't use its other wide receivers much. Albert Wilson has been their next best player at that position, averaging 36 receiving yards, with 3 TDs in 10 games. ... With Harrison Butker, it comes down to winning. When the team plays well, he plays well. Since the team signed him, he's averaged 15 points in the four games the team has won -- at least 11 points in all of those games. But he's scored more than 7 points in only two of the six games they've lost (an average of 7.3 points in those games). Are you comfortable operating under the assumption Kansas City will defeat the Chargers? We are not. Los Angeles opened the season 0-4, allowing 39 kicking points. It has allowed a league-low 36 kicking points in the last 10 weeks (4.0 per game). ... The Kansas City Defense is a lesser option. It's disappointed this year -- both the pass rush and in the secondary -- and the Chargers aren't making many mistakes right now. They've allowed a league-low 15 sacks. Only one offense has lost fewer fumbles, and Philip Rivers has thrown only 7 picks. Kansas City at least might have some feel for how to play him; he's thrown 5 interceptions in his last two games against this defense; he's thrown only 3 interceptions in his last 12 games against other teams. Similarly, Kansas City has 5 interceptions in its last two games against Rivers, but only 2 interceptions in its last 12 against other quarterbacks. Tyreek Hill is as talented as any kick returner, but he has only one touchdown on a kick return in 13 games (he scored 3 last year).