Stats go stale. Kansas City scored a bunch of touchdowns in the first few weeks of the season, and that’s so long ago that it doesn’t really even matter. Similarly, New England allowed over 30 points in a bunch of early season games, but they’ve got that defense dialed in better now (at least they did until Monday night).
So suppose we simply toss those games and instead focus on just the last 10 games each offense has played. Similarly, suppose we look at the just the last 10 games for each defense.
If we then average those numbers together, we get some ballpark starting point of what we might expect from teams this week.
For rushing, the raw numbers suggest, New Orleans, Dallas, Chicago and Carolina will post the best numbers (assuming 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards). Keep in mind that these are just numbers – the stats don’t realize that Ezekiel Elliott is suspended or that so and so just got hurt. But it’s a starting point.
Stats suggest the Giants, Bengals, 49ers and Lions will have the worst rushing offenses this week.
| AVERAGED RUSHING PRODUCTION (last 10 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team (Opp.) | Yards | TDR | F Pts |
| New Orleans (NYJ) | 130 | 1.15 | 19.9 |
| Dallas (Oak.) | 130 | 1.10 | 19.6 |
| Chicago (Det.) | 125 | 1.10 | 19.1 |
| Carolina (G.B.) | 128 | 1.00 | 18.8 |
| Atlanta (T.B.) | 125 | 1.00 | 18.5 |
| Minnesota (Cin.) | 128 | .90 | 18.2 |
| Jacksonville (Hou.) | 130 | .85 | 18.1 |
| Buffalo (Mia.) | 132 | .80 | 18.0 |
| Philadelphia (NYG) | 137 | .70 | 17.9 |
| Tennessee (S.F.) | 113 | 1.00 | 17.3 |
| Miami (Buff.) | 119 | .90 | 17.3 |
| LA Chargers (K.C.) | 118 | .80 | 16.6 |
| Cleveland (Balt.) | 111 | .80 | 15.9 |
| Arizona (Wash.) | 114 | .70 | 15.6 |
| Green Bay (Car.) | 104 | .85 | 15.5 |
| NY Jets (N.O.) | 109 | .75 | 15.4 |
| LA Rams (Sea.) | 105 | .80 | 15.3 |
| New England (Pitt.) | 107 | .70 | 14.9 |
| Oakland (Dall.) | 100 | .80 | 14.8 |
| Denver (Ind.) | 111 | .60 | 14.7 |
| Baltimore (Clev.) | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
| Seattle (LAR) | 114 | .50 | 14.4 |
| Tampa Bay (Atl.) | 110 | .55 | 14.3 |
| Washington (Ariz.) | 93 | .80 | 14.1 |
| Kansas City (LAC) | 111 | .50 | 14.1 |
| Pittsburgh (N.E.) | 113 | .45 | 14.0 |
| Houston (Jac.) | 111 | .45 | 13.8 |
| Indianapolis (Den.) | 105 | .50 | 13.5 |
| Detroit (Chi.) | 93 | .65 | 13.2 |
| San Francisco (Tenn.) | 94 | .55 | 12.7 |
| Cincinnati (Minn.) | 86 | .65 | 12.5 |
| NY Giants (Phil.) | 86 | .40 | 11.0 |
For passing, stats suggest Philadelphia will finish with by far the best overall numbers. Stats, of course, don’t realize Carson Wentz is out for the year, but a good matchup for the Eagles. The Chargers, Seahawks and Steelers come in next in line in this little exercise.
Numbers suggest Browns, Bears and Colts will have the worst passing numbers. (This again assumes 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards; if you use 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards, the order would probably be pretty similar.)
| AVERAGED PASSING PRODUCTION (last 10 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team (Opp.) | Yards | TDP | F Pts |
| Philadelphia (NYG) | 279 | 2.50 | 42.9 |
| LA Chargers (K.C.) | 271 | 1.80 | 37.9 |
| Seattle (LAR) | 260 | 1.95 | 37.7 |
| Pittsburgh (N.E.) | 277 | 1.65 | 37.6 |
| Atlanta (T.B.) | 274 | 1.50 | 36.4 |
| New England (Pitt.) | 261 | 1.65 | 36.0 |
| Tampa Bay (Atl.) | 262 | 1.55 | 35.5 |
| New Orleans (NYJ) | 258 | 1.60 | 35.4 |
| Detroit (Chi.) | 266 | 1.40 | 35.0 |
| Oakland (Dall.) | 257 | 1.55 | 35.0 |
| Washington (Ariz.) | 254 | 1.55 | 34.7 |
| Arizona (Wash.) | 250 | 1.60 | 34.6 |
| Carolina (G.B.) | 243 | 1.70 | 34.5 |
| LA Rams (Sea.) | 255 | 1.50 | 34.5 |
| Houston (Jac.) | 241 | 1.65 | 34.0 |
| Miami (Buff.) | 246 | 1.55 | 33.9 |
| Jacksonville (Hou.) | 243 | 1.40 | 32.7 |
| Minnesota (Cin.) | 247 | 1.30 | 32.5 |
| San Francisco (Tenn.) | 255 | 1.15 | 32.4 |
| Kansas City (LAC) | 248 | 1.25 | 32.3 |
| Baltimore (Clev.) | 226 | 1.60 | 32.2 |
| Dallas (Oak.) | 228 | 1.55 | 32.1 |
| Green Bay (Car.) | 220 | 1.60 | 31.6 |
| Denver (Ind.) | 242 | 1.20 | 31.4 |
| Buffalo (Mia.) | 215 | 1.55 | 30.8 |
| NY Jets (N.O.) | 222 | 1.40 | 30.6 |
| Tennessee (S.F.) | 227 | 1.25 | 30.2 |
| NY Giants (Phil.) | 215 | 1.30 | 29.3 |
| Cincinnati (Minn.) | 211 | 1.35 | 29.2 |
| Indianapolis (Den.) | 204 | 1.45 | 29.1 |
| Chicago (Det.) | 218 | 1.15 | 28.7 |
| Cleveland (Balt.) | 227 | .90 | 28.1 |
Finally, a look at straight points. Numbers suggest Carson Wentz (who isn’t playing) and the Eagles will score over 2 more points than anyone else this week. Saints, Ravens and Jaguars also should score well.
These last-10-week numbers suggest Browns, Giants and Bengals will have lowest-scoring teams. Kansas City is also down there. With the Chargers playing really well over the last 10 weeks and Kansas City generally playing poorly, Los Angeles appears to have a good chance of overcoming away-field disadvantage and winning that showdown game.
| AVERAGED SCORING (last 10 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team (Opp.) | Off | Def | Avg |
| Philadelphia (NYG) | 32.7 | 25.1 | 28.9 |
| New Orleans (NYJ) | 29.7 | 23.9 | 26.8 |
| Baltimore (Clev.) | 26.7 | 25.9 | 26.3 |
| Jacksonville (Hou.) | 24.0 | 26.1 | 25.1 |
| Dallas (Oak.) | 25.2 | 24.1 | 24.7 |
| Carolina (G.B.) | 25.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 |
| LA Rams (Sea.) | 28.9 | 19.3 | 24.1 |
| LA Chargers (K.C.) | 25.0 | 23.2 | 24.1 |
| Atlanta (T.B.) | 20.7 | 27.1 | 23.9 |
| Buffalo (Mia.) | 19.0 | 28.1 | 23.6 |
| New England (Pitt.) | 26.9 | 20.1 | 23.5 |
| Miami (Buff.) | 21.1 | 25.3 | 23.2 |
| Arizona (Wash.) | 17.5 | 28.4 | 23.0 |
| Detroit (Chi.) | 25.3 | 20.5 | 22.9 |
| Seattle (LAR) | 26.6 | 19.0 | 22.8 |
| Washington (Ariz.) | 21.4 | 24.1 | 22.8 |
| Minnesota (Cin.) | 23.7 | 21.1 | 22.4 |
| Chicago (Det.) | 17.7 | 26.6 | 22.2 |
| Green Bay (Car.) | 21.8 | 22.2 | 22.0 |
| Tennessee (S.F.) | 18.7 | 23.8 | 21.3 |
| Oakland (Dall.) | 18.3 | 23.2 | 20.8 |
| Tampa Bay (Atl.) | 21.8 | 19.5 | 20.7 |
| Pittsburgh (N.E.) | 25.6 | 15.5 | 20.6 |
| Houston (Jac.) | 25.9 | 15.1 | 20.5 |
| Indianapolis (Den.) | 15.9 | 25.1 | 20.5 |
| San Francisco (Tenn.) | 17.7 | 22.5 | 20.1 |
| Denver (Ind.) | 14.7 | 25.3 | 20.0 |
| NY Jets (N.O.) | 21.4 | 18.5 | 20.0 |
| Kansas City (LAC) | 23.6 | 15.8 | 19.7 |
| Cincinnati (Minn.) | 19.3 | 17.3 | 18.3 |
| NY Giants (Phil.) | 16.2 | 18.2 | 17.2 |
| Cleveland (Balt.) | 14.1 | 19.2 | 16.7 |
—Ian Allan