Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it time to give up on Mike Evans? Trying to get a handle on up-and-down Marvin Jones. Should A.J. Green sit at Minnesota? Looking into the crystal ball to identify the 12 playoff teams.
Question 1
Should I give up on Mike Evans? I've continued to start him as his production declines, leaving alternatives like Sanu, Crowder and Engram on the bench. With Tampa Bay going nowhere, is it time to dump Evans? Or will he come back like Kareem Hunt did for me in Week 14?
Eric Pryne (Vashon, WA)
I may have been late to the party on Mike Evans. I have considered him to be another Julio Jones or A.J. Green. With these kind of players, I just kind of pencil them in. I don’t worry so much about a patch of games with limited production because the talent and role is there. They end up coming around. If you try to move them down when they put together a string of four bad games, that’s usually the week where they pop off for 120 yards and 2 TDs, and you have to yo-yo them back up into the top 5. So my rule of thumb with these kind of guys is let them work through their slumps. That sounds good in theory, of course, but it’s frustrating as hell when you’ve got them on your roster. In hindsight, I probably should have dropped him a few more spots than I have. But that said, he’s still a remarkably talented guy, and I would be very leery of sitting him on Monday night, playing under the national spotlight. When Atlanta came to Tampa last year for a Thursday nighter, he caught 11 passes for 150 yards and 2 TDs.
Question 2
Let's talk Marvin Jones. He flies under the radar nationally, getting little respect in rankings from ESPN and others. You have consistently ranked him higher, and that's what led me to pick him up. But it seems every time I've started him, he catches maybe a pass or two. When he's on my bench, he scores. It's uncanny. I would argue his lack of consistency keeps him from being a top 10 WR. Thoughts?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
Jones is playing a lot better now than he was back in September. He caught only 8 passes in his first four games, recall. In his last nine, he’s caught 43 passes for 754 yards and 6 TDs – averaging about 5 catches and 84 yards per game. I don’t think you want to mess with that. Next two games look favorable. On Saturday he’s at home against Chicago; he played well enough in the earlier Bears game, catching 4 passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. Then in Week 16, he’s at Cincinnati, which just placed Adam Jones on IR last week. Jones began his career with the Bengals, so I’m guessing he’s probably fired up to play well on that field.
Question 3
In one of my leagues, we carry our entire roster into the actual playoffs to extend the fun a bit longer. We completely shut our waiver wire down for the season prior to the kickoff of the early Sunday games for week 15. In your crystal ball, how do you see the playoff participants this year in the AFC & NFC, including wild cards?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
In the AFC, the division winner should be New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and the winner of game at Arrowhead on Saturday. The Chargers have lost seven straight in that series, but I think they’re the much better team – I think they’re going to win that, going on to claim the division. Baltimore and Tennessee should be the wild cards. In the NFC, Philadelphia and Minnesota have locked down divisions. New Orleans seems to have the South under control – it’s in the lead, has swept Carolina and has the easiest remaining schedule. Out West, it will be either Los Angeles or Seattle, and I think the Rams will come out on top – I think they might put it away on Sunday, with the Seahawks have a lot of injuries on defense. And if Seattle wins that one (to tie up the division), then Los Angeles very easily could re-claim control the following week, with Seattle having to play at Dallas against Ezekiel Elliott. The wild cards get tough, with a six-team battle between Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle and the three 7-6 teams (Dallas, Green Bay, Detroit). Carolina is 9-4 right now, so I’m putting them in. Atlanta is 8-5 and has beaten all four of the other teams in that scrum, so I’m giving it the other spot. The Falcons can step a big step towards a playoff spot by taking care of business on Monday night at Tampa. Then it will need to win one of its final two (at New Orleans or at home against Carolina).
Question 4
Considering the phoenix-like rejuvenation of Jared Goff's career, can we safely assume that while Jeff Fisher might pop up again as a defensive coordinator, we'll never have to see him as head coach? As great as everyone was telling us for years, he won just two playoff games in the 16 seasons following his Super Bowl loss to the Rams. Thanks for the tips on Jell-O construction, and heaven help the foes!
ERIC DEGERMAN (Richland, WA)
Always good to hear from you. When you look at the kind of numbers that Goff, Todd Gurley and Case Keenum are putting up, I would be shocked if any team was willing to invest the time to even interview Fisher for a head coaching position. I’m not sure anybody would have much interest in giving him control of a defense either. Of his last 12 teams, only two ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. Only three ranked in the top 10 in yards. Those 12 teams finished a combined 85-106-1.
| JEFF FISHER'S LAST 12 DEFENSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | W-L | Pts | Yds |
| 2004 | Titans | 5-11 | 30th | 27th |
| 2005 | Titans | 4-12 | 29th | 19th |
| 2006 | Titans | 8-8 | 31st | 32nd |
| 2007 | Titans | 10-6 | 8th | 5th |
| 2008 | Titans | 13-3 | 2nd | 7th |
| 2009 | Titans | 8-8 | 28th | 28th |
| 2010 | Titans | 6-10 | 15th | 26th |
| 2012 | Rams | 7-8-1 | 15th | 14th |
| 2013 | Rams | 7-9 | 13th | 15th |
| 2014 | Rams | 6-10 | 17th | 17th |
| 2015 | Rams | 7-9 | 13th | 23rd |
| 2016 | Rams | 4-12 | 23rd | 9th |
Question 5
Is A.J. Green a candidate to sit this week against Minnesota and shadow shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes? We start two wides and a flex; I was thinking of starting Keenan Allen and Fitzgerald and flexing either Green or perhaps a bold move and flex Mike Davis, Corey Davis, DeVante Parker or Derrick Henry ... what say you as to a flex? Please help!
Anthony Cillis (Lagrangeville, NY)
Green is a franchise receiver. When you have super talented guys like Green, Julio and Antonio Brown, best in general (I think) to just leave them in there. “Start your studs,” some will say. You will get hit with a few off games, but you also avoid the frustration of leaving on the bench a superstar coming up big in a crucial situation. Those who benched Russell Wilson at Jacksonville on Sunday know the feeling. So with Green this week, I’m not interested in seriously considering starting lesserguys like Henry, Parker and Davis ahead of him. Rhodes, however, has been pretty studly. Putting together a list of the best 12 receivers who’ve played against Minnesota, I see only two have caught touchdowns. Rhodes wasn’t covering all these players on all plays, of course, and it gets troublesome trying to put together such a list. With Detroit, I didn’t know whether to make Marvin Jones or Golden Tate the top guy. Davante Adams is the No. 1 receiver for the Packers, but when they played at Minnesota, I thought Jordy Nelson at that time was that guy. Crowder and Tate line up in the slot more, so I’m not sure how often Rhodes was even covering them.
| BEST RECEIVERS VS. VIKES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Michael Thomas, N.O. | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| ? Marvin Jones, Det. | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| ? Golden Tate, Det. | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Robert Woods, LAR | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| ? Marvin Jones, Det. | 6 | 109 | 2 |
| ? Golden Tate, Det. | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Julio Jones, Atl. | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess, Car. | 3 | 59 | 1 |
Question 6
Full PPR. Corey Coleman or Robby Anderson or one of Minnesota RBs: Murray or McKinnon for flex spot?
JOE SERVI (Monterey, CA)
Jordan Howard had a huge game against Cincinnati last week. Latavius Murray has been playing well and is the same kind of back. I think he’s your guy. The Bengals will be without all three of their starting linebackers.
Question 7
When drafting my 2017 dynasty league team, I thought a lot about your observation that tight ends can take several years to develop. So after taking Ertz as my number one, I skipped the rookies and instead took flyers on some 2nd- and 3rd-year guys who might be ready to break out. I ended up with Swoope, Rico Gathers, Stephen Anderson, and Seals-Jones (a rookie I know, but what the hell). I can’t keep them all but it’s a league that really rewards tight end depth (1.5 PPR and you can start up to three) so I really want to choose correctly. What are your thoughts on these guys? How would you rank them in a dynasty league? Thanks as always!
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
I liked the look of Gathers in the preseason, and I think it makes a lot of sense to stash him away, with Witten being 35 – he can’t run anymore. Wouldn’t surprise me if Gathers is their starting tight end on opening day next year. Swoope underwent knee surgery in late July or early August and never made it off injured reserve. I’m not sure what happened there; I thought it was a relatively routine surgery. So I would go with the guy we can see. The Cardinals have been putting Seals-Jones on the field for 15-18 plays per game, and he’s creating mismatches. He’s had receptions over 20 yards four games in a row, with 3 TDs. There seems to be some potential there, and I’m thinking he’ll be part of the 2018 offense. Anderson seems to be as much a wide receiver as a tight end, and I’m not sure how much the Texans will use him next year, when they’ve got Hopkins and Fuller healthy (and probably a new notable tight end on the roster). Anderson had a really nice catch on a fourth-and-19 in the Tennessee game.
Question 8
I am currently in the semis in my PPR league for Week 15. I keep bouncing back and forth on my QB and flex choices. I'm currently playing Rivers over Dak at QB, which was my plan since the Elliot suspension but with Dak showing something last week I keep doubting my position on this. At the flex, I'm going RB and are struggling between McKinnon and Hyde. Currently I'm set with McKinnon but with his possible shoulder injury slowing him last week and Garoppolo showing he can keep an offense relevant in SF I keep thinking I should go with Hyde. Any words of wisdom would be greatly appreciated.
Jonathan Benintendo (Bethpage, NY)
I think the 49ers might be moving away from Hyde as a pass catcher. He’s got a team-high 52 receptions, but he didn’t catch anything last week. In the Chicago game, I saw him drop a big one in the red zone and lose yardage on another pass play – 3 catches for 12 yards. For the year, he’s averaging under 6 yards per catch – he’s not good in that capacity. They signed Kyle Juszczyk in part because of his ability to catch passes, and he’s been coming on in that area, with 6 catches for 84 yards in the last two games. So factor that in, and also factor in that Matt Breida played a bunch last week. And that Tennessee’s defense has been way better against the run than the pass. So probably McKinnon is your guy. With Philip Rivers, Kansas City might have some kind of feel for how to play him. He’s thrown 5 interceptions in his last two games against that defense; he’s thrown 4 interceptions in his last 12 games against everyone else. Kansas City has won its last seven in that series. But Rivers is playing a lot better than Prescott right now, and Kansas City’s defense has been pretty terrible. I would start Rivers.
Question 9
Since Rodgers went down, I've mixed Cousins, McCown, and Roethlisberger to barely get me to the playoffs. Your thoughts if I should stay with Big Ben, or play Rodgers in my TD only league (passing TDs are 6 points)?
Mike Craig (Kokomo, IN)
Roethlisberger is playing well enough that I wouldn’t be considering sitting him down for a Heinz Field game. If your team advances to play in Week 16, Roethlisberger will be playing at Houston. At that time, you can start wondering whether to plug in Rodgers (home vs. Vikings) or Cousins (home vs. Denver).
Question 10
Thanks for all the great advice this year that has gotten me to the semifinals. Another line-up question: Which two of these WR's would you start in a PPR league: Mike Evans, Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods?
CHRIS HENKLE (Aurora, IL)
They’ve all got some potential. I think Goodwin’s for real; he’s caught 14 passes for 205 yards in the two games Jimmy Garoppolo’s started. Woods was really ripping it up before he got hurt, and while he’s been out Kupp has excelled (and Kupp was also playing well earlier). But I would go with talent. Evans and Tate would be the guys I would roll out. If I got buyer’s remorse, deciding to sub in somebody else at the last minute, it would be Goodwin.
Question 11
Thanks for the great work. Made the playoffs in all my leagues trying to move onto the finals. Got a WR question for this week. All 3 receivers you have ranked close to one another. I read the write up none of them are standing out over the other. TD-only league. Any insight would help. Paul Richardson, Josh Gordon, Robby Anderson.
Chris Winder (San Ramon, CA)
You’re just going to have to bite the bullet and pick one. With Josh McCown being out for the year, it’s tempting to eliminate Anderson, but Bryce Petty threw 2 TDs to him last year while hardly playing, both from 40 yards. Gut tells me to go with Gordon. He’s the most talented. With better quarterbacking, he would have scored in both of his games. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Antonio Brown was consistently running by Baltimore’s cornerbacks on Sunday night; maybe Gordon can do the same.
Question 12
Have a final flex position to fill. With yardage bonuses starting at 50 yards and an additional point for each 25 years, who do you like. Picked up Dede Westbrook this week, what would you do vs. Mike Davis? In my custom scoring, they are only 0.3 apart. Also, while Seals-Jones is tempting, will there be Monday regrets vs. Charles Clay? Thanks in advance for the use of your crystal ball.
SCOTT MACDONIELS (Chesterfield, MO)
These are tough calls. Westbrook has shown some potential, with 20 catches in his first four games. He has the speed to hit on a long touchdown, and he’s playing against a notoriously bad secondary (the Texans have been ripped up by a lot of passing attacks this year). Yet two Jacksonville wide receivers caught touchdowns last week, and neither one of them was Westbrook. I’d probably be inclined to play it safe with Davis, who’s definitely a starting tailback who’ll get a at least 12-15 carries. Probably start Davis and hope the Seahawks are on against a Los Angeles defense that has given them some trouble. With the tight ends, Seals-Jones has caught a 20-plus yard ball four games in a row, but I would probably build around the belief that the Bills are running out of wide receivers, and they’ll need to use Clay as a short-range target.
Question 13
Fantasy Playoff Time! I used your great products and analysis once again this year, and turned it into an 11-2 regular season finish and a first-round bye. And that was with Deshaun Watson and Dalvin Cook both getting hurt! Where I need help is deciding RB2 and Flex. Scoring is standard (not PPR) but receiving TDs are worth 5 points and rushing TDs are only worth 4 points). Choices are: Jamaal Williams, Golden Tate, Jerick McKinnon, Mike Davis, and Rod Smith. I currently have Jamaal Williams as RB2 and Tate in the flex. Kerwynn Williams is available on the free agency wire and I could drop McKinnon, Mike Davis, or Rod Smith. According to the custom scoring Fantasy Index weekly update I should drop Rod Smith, get Kerwynn Williams, and plug him in over Tate. That’s what I am going to do for now, but I'd appreciate your assessment. Rod Smith was pretty freaking amazing against the Giants.
Andrew Napoli (Alexandria, VA)
For me, Rod Smith isn’t a factor. Dallas won 30-10 at New York, but that game was tied 10-10 in the fourth quarter. Cowboys took the lead, Giants got into Dallas territory but couldn’t tie it, then Smith pulls two touchdowns out of his hat in the final 4 minutes, including an unlikely 81-yard touchdown. I don’t think he’s in the discussion. Arizona placed Adrian Peterson on injured reserve, so Kerwynn Williams will start. He’s been impressive the last two weeks, carrying 36 times for 170 yards. He’s going against a defense that’s been struggling. But Williams won’t give you anything as a pass catcher. He’s caught 1 pass for 15 yards in his last two game. If you want to look more at overall production and touches, then probably Jamaal Williams. He’s going against a good run defense, but if Carolina shuts down the run, he could be catching plenty of dumpoff balls. Gut tells me Kerwynn will be the best of that group, but I’m not super excited about him.
Question 14
Looking for a flex in a PPR league. Tate or Graham.
TROY MARSHALL (Hiawatha, IA)
In PPR, I like guys who catch passes. In such a league, a 10-yard catch is worth 2 points – 1 for the catch, and 1 for the 10 yards. Touchdowns aren’t as important. So while Jimmy Graham has caught 5 more touchdowns this year, but Golden Tate has been far more valuable – 27 more points on catches and 38 more points on yards.