SEATTLE (at Dallas)
The Seahawks have been contending for Super Bowls for years, but that's gone for now. If they were to slip into the playoffs ...
(which isn't going to happen) it would be for a one-and-done exit at Los Angeles, New Orleans or Carolina. It ain't happening, and many in the organization can see that, whether they admit it out loud or not...
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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Chances are this disappointing season will come to a close on Sunday, with the Cowboys hammering out a win. For fantasy purposes, the Seahawks should finish with average overall numbers. Seattle's offense has scored 34 touchdowns, while Dallas' defense has allowed 33. That's a combined total of 67 in 28 games, which works out to 2.4 per game -- just above the league average. ... Russell Wilson comes off his worst game of the season -- sacked 7 times by the Rams. They tend to give Seattle fits with their talented defensive line. With Seattle's season kind of fizzling away, maybe the offense comes out a little flat here. But Wilson has been remarkably good against other teams this year. In his last 10 other games he's averaged 297 passing and 39 rushing yards, with a combined 30 touchdowns -- 3 TDs per week. So while perhaps Wilson has already played his best ball, little choice but to leave him among the top-3 quarterbacks. Dallas hasn't been anything special defensively, allowing multiple touchdown passes in all but one of their last seven games (and that was against struggling Eli Manning). The Cowboys are allowing 249 passing yards per game, which is slightly below average. Wilson is also consistently using his mobility, giving him a big statistical advantage against immobile pocket passers like Brady, Roethlisberger, Rivers and Brees. Best not to mess with Wilson. ... It's a decent enough matchup for the passing game, so we'll put the receivers in their usual landing spots. Doug Baldwin is their No. 1 option, on pace to finish the season with just short of 1,000 yards. He's caught only 5 of their 30 touchdown passes, but he's way more likely to score than usual this week. The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 19 TD passes to wide receivers; they tend to use their cornerbacks in solo coverage more than other teams, giving wide receivers opportunities to make plays. By that same logic, we're slotting Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett higher than usual. They both have some ability to get deep behind secondaries. Wilson is better able than most quarterbacks to deliver those balls because he buys time scrambling and has a stronger arm than what defenses are expecting. Richardson is averaging 49 receiving yards, with 6 TDs, but just one score in his last seven. Lockett is averaging 41 rec-run yards; just 2 TDs, but they've both come in the last three games. ... Jimmy Graham isn't a huge part of the passing game; he's caught 1 pass for minus-1 yard in the last two weeks combined. And he averaged only 46 yards in his previous 10 games (not a lot for a team averaging close to 300 passing yards). But they've used Graham extensively in the red zone; he's caught a team-high 9 TDs. We're downgrading him some this week because of the 26 TD passes allowed by Dallas, only 5 have been caught by tight ends -- opponents have tended to attack them with wide receivers. Graham will be a free agent in the offseason, and most likely he'll sign with another team (Seattle is unlikely to want to commit much money to him). ... The Seahawks probably won't put up good rushing numbers. They've tended to have a pass-dominated offense, while Dallas has been much stronger against the run. But Mike Davis has been playing hard, pounding out 64-66 yards against the Eagles and Jaguars. He's trying to show he belongs in the team's 2018 plans. He'll be their main ball carrier, with J.D. McKissic playing in obvious passing situations. McKissic has averaged 19 rushing and 23 receiving yards in his last six games, with one touchdown. Davis isn't likely to punch in a rushing touchdown. The Seahawks have run for only 4 TDs all year, and Wilson has scored 3 of those. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have allowed only 7 rushing touchdowns. ... Blair Walsh is a lesser kicker who's struggling with his confidence. After missing 6 of his last 14 field goals, he's probably playing the last two games of his NFL career -- unlikely that he'll be back in Seattle, and unlikely any other team will sign him. He's averaging only 6.5 points per game, while only four teams have allowed fewer kicking points than the Cowboys. ... The Seahawks Defense looks like a lesser group -- too many injuries. Left tackle Tyron Smith left the Oakland game with a knee injury; maybe he sits out (which would help). But Dallas gets a lot tougher with Ezekiel Elliott coming back. Dak Prescott in his last six games has taken 17 sacks, with 7 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles. In eight games with Elliott, Prescott took only 10 sacks, with 4 picks and no fumbles.