SAINTS (vs Carolina)
The Saints should win this game and appear to be as likely as anyone to finish with the best numbers of the week, but they're not as prolific as they've been in the past. The offense ...

... scored only 46 touchdowns in the regular season -- 9 fewer than last year. In only half of their games, in fact, did this offense score more than 2 TDs. Carolina's defense, meanwhile, is above average. It allowed 32 touchdowns in the regular season (an average of 2 per game). So 2-3 TDs looks like the right forecast (with 3 TDs more likely). ...

This report is taken from today's Week 18 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly (for the wildcard round of the NFL playoffs). The newsletter includes our player rankings for the wildcard games, plus 8 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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New Orleans runs the ball a lot better than it ever has, and that's what lifted the team to both of its regular-season wins over Carolina. The offense ran for 148 and 149 yards in those games, with 4 TDs. But we're nervous about penciling in the Saints for another one of those games. Despite those earlier games, Carolina has one of the league's best defenses against the run, with size up front and talented linebackers who can run down the ball. Only two defenses allowed fewer rushing yards in the regular season. The Panthers in their last 10 other games allowed an average of only 86 rushing yards, with 1 rushing touchdown in those 10 games. And while New Orleans was really crushing people with the run in October and November, it's a ground game that tailed off late in the season -- they ran for only 86 and 92 yards in their last two games. So we're thinking this is a lesser situation for Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Great backs, and we're not saying they can't be used, but they'll probably post lesser numbers than what we've been seeing for the bulk of the season. Ingram has averaged 74 rushing and 25 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 9 TDs. Kamara got hurt on the first possession at Atlanta but otherwise has averaged 57 rushing and 64 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 12 touchdowns. As a team, the Saints have averaged 141 rushing yards since they traded Adrian Peterson and made Ingram and Kamara a one-two punch, with 22 TD runs in those 12 games. That kind of production looks way out of reach, given the way Carolina can play run defense. The Panthers have let the Saints beat them twice by running the ball down their throats, and they are very unlikely to let that happen again. More realistically, the Saints will have to settle for something like 110-120 rushing yards, with probably one touchdown run between the two of them. Of these two, Kamara looks far more compelling because he's also a key piece of the passing offense. They get him on mismatches as a pass catcher out of the backfield, and that will become a more important part of the offense if and when the ground game begins to stall. Had the season played out slightly differently, Kamara might have gone over 1,000 receiving yards, and he caught 5 TDs. Scored on a kickoff return also. ... Drew Brees didn't put up his usual numbers in the regular season, averaging only 271 passing yards per game, with just 23 TDs. But Brees is still a capable, accurate passer, and his numbers probably will be better this week. If the Panthers commit more resources to stopping the run (which is how it should play out) they'll have to leave themselves more vulnerable against the pass. If the Saints lose about 50 rushing yards and a TD run, they'll probably make that up through the air. That tends to be how things work out against Carolina. The Panthers stop the run, and they don't have a great secondary. In their last eight games (a half-season worth of work) they've allowed an average of 295 passing yards, with 15 TD passes.

Because the run was working, Brees passed for only 220 and 269 yards in the previous Carolina games (albeit with 4 TDs). He'll post better numbers this time. And while you can play around with the numbers and try to talk yourself into quarterbacks like Alex Smith, Jared Goff and Blake Bortles, Brees is definitely the best quarterback playing this weekend, and that's worth something. ... With the healthy passing projection, we're ranking the pass catchers higher than we usually would. Michael Thomas is the clear No. 1 guy, and he'll be busy. He was very productive in the two regular season games against the Panthers, with 12 caches for 157 yards and 2 TDs. Ted Ginn could potentially hit on a long touchdown; he's their best deep threat, and they should throw more than usual this week. Ginn used to play for the Panthers, for whatever that's worth. He caught a 40-yard touchdown in the Week 3 game but only 2 catches in each of the previous meetings. Ginn averaged 53 receiving yards in the regular season, albeit with just 4 TDs. Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead get on the field plenty, but neither tends to see many balls. Coleman scored 3 TDs early in the season but he's averaged only 18 yards in his last 10 games, with no touchdowns. Snead averaged only 8 receiving yards in the regular season, with no touchdowns in 11 games. ... With New Orleans emphasizing the run, the tight ends serve mainly as blockers. Both Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui averaged under 10 receiving yards in the regular season, with just one touchdown each. ... There are three kickers that merit consideration as the top option at their position, and Wil Lutz is in that group. He scored 140 points in the regular season. Only six teams scored more kicking points in the regular season (and only two of them are playing this week). Carolina is generally regarded as having a tough defense, but it was below-average against kickers in the regular season (allowing 119 points). Combined between the two sides, that's an average of 8.1 points per game, the 3rd-highest number on the board. Lutz scored 10 and 7 points against Carolina in the two regular season games. If not for a pair of missed field goals from 38 yards, Lutz would have scored double-digit points in four straight games against this opponent. ... The Saints Defense looks like the favorite to intercept the most passes. New Orleans picked off 20 passes in regular season, while Cam Newton threw 16 -- the combined 36 is the largest number of the eight games this weekend. Newton tossed 3 interceptions last week in Atlanta, with a lot of off-target passes. The matchup also looks above-average for sacks, with a combined 77 between the two sides (2.4 per game). New Orleans came up big at Carolina in Week 3, with 4 sacks and 3 interceptions. It didn't get great mayhem numbers in the game in the Superdome a month ago (2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery and no interceptions). The Saints scored 4 defensive touchdowns in the regular season, the 2nd-most of any team playing this week. They'll probably use Alvin Kamara on kickoff returns, and he took one to the house last week. They'll either use Ted Ginn or Tommylee Lewis on punts, and those guys seem average at best.