I will be surprised if Tom Brady isn’t the most productive passer this weekend. He’s really good, of course, and there’s also the dynamic of Tennessee tending to be a lot weaker against the pass. Of the 35 touchdowns allowed by this defense, all but 6 have come on pass plays.
During the regular season, only three defenses allowed fewer rushing yards than the Titans, but only six teams allowed more passing yards.
Brady, meanwhile, has been on this stage many times before. In his last 16 games at home in the playoffs (an NFL season’s worth of work) he’s averaged 273 passing yards, with 37 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
Brady is 13-3 in his last 16 home playoff games, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all but three of those games.
To me, I’m expecting 300-plus yards and 2-plus touchdowns.
| TOM BRADY, HOME PLAYOFF GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Pct | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2005 | Jac. | W 28-3 | 56% | 201 | 3 | 0 |
| 2006 | NYJ | W 37-16 | 65% | 212 | 2 | 0 |
| 2007 | Jac. | W 31-20 | 93% | 262 | 3 | 0 |
| 2007 | S.D. | W 21-12 | 67% | 209 | 2 | 3 |
| 2009 | Balt. | L 14-33 | 55% | 154 | 2 | 3 |
| 2010 | NYJ | L 21-28 | 64% | 299 | 2 | 1 |
| 2011 | Den. | W 45-10 | 76% | 363 | 6 | 1 |
| 2011 | Balt. | W 23-20 | 61% | 239 | 0 | 2 |
| 2012 | Hou. | W 41-28 | 63% | 344 | 3 | 0 |
| 2012 | Balt. | L 13-28 | 54% | 320 | 1 | 2 |
| 2013 | Ind. | W 43-22 | 52% | 198 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | Balt. | W 35-31 | 66% | 367 | 3 | 1 |
| 2014 | Ind. | W 45-7 | 66% | 226 | 3 | 1 |
| 2015 | K.C. | W 27-20 | 67% | 302 | 2 | 0 |
| 2016 | Hou. | W 34-16 | 47% | 287 | 2 | 2 |
| 2016 | Pitt. | W 36-17 | 76% | 384 | 3 | 0 |
—Ian Allan