Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at all the week's games, offering my own take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in every so often over the course of the day to answer questions, too.
What follows is a brief look at all the games with how I'd react in my own lineups to injury developments or other news. The official rankings are the ones in the Weekly. Those are the ones that subscribers are paying for. Sometimes players are very close in the rankings, and if I get questions like that, I'll offer opinions. Sometimes I like certain players more or less than Ian, and sometimes I have different risk tolerance with injuries/weather issues, etc.
Falcons at Eagles: It's always a little nerve-wracking when everyone is certain how a game will turn out. Especially when everyone is certain the road team will win over the conference's No. 1 seed. Eagles don't have Carson Wentz and that makes their offense a lot less intimidating. But it's not as if Nick Foles has never played well. He's home, he's got a smart coaching staff, there are a lot of capable pieces in the offense. And Philadelphia's defense is really good, while Atlanta's offense underachieved all year long.
That being said, I am giving the slight edge to Atlanta. Battle-tested, also good on defense, and they've got the best quarterback and wide receiver in this game. But it's very likely to be low-scoring and conservative, with more defense than offense, and probably some field goals rather than touchdowns. The only Eagle I'm really interested in starting is Zach Ertz. I'm calling it Atlanta 20, Philadelphia 17.
Titans at Patriots: Is there something wrong with the sticking the mighty Patriots in the early Saturday slot? I mean, this is the game that's probably going to suck. But I suppose they'll draw a lot of national eyes from the people that love or hate them, which is most of the football-watching world. I know we can all talk ourselves into the Titans being competitive in this one. The Patriots aren't THAT great, and they've got some injuries. The Titans have a pass rush that can knock Tom Brady around a little and so forth. But more likely, the game is competitive for a half, and then New England gradually pulls away -- makes some plays on offense, forces a turnover or two.
Some noteworthy injuries. Sounds like neither Rex Burkhead nor Mike Gillislee is going to play, so Dion Lewis is the main back and James White will handle at least some passing situations. That being the case, scrub our mid-week rankings of Burkhead and move Lewis up. Tennessee much better defending the run than the pass, but by the time New England softens them up some, there should be some late rushing production. For Tennessee, Derrick Henry should play pretty much every snap. Hopefully they'll use him in the passing game when they fall behind, because there should be a lot of those snaps. New England 30, Tennessee 17.
Jaguars at Steelers: So Antonio Brown (calf) practiced fully on Wednesday and Thursday, then sat out practice on Friday (calf, illness) and is questionable on the injury report. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk was reporting last night the calf injury was the issue. But Mike Tomlin told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that Brown showed up with flu-like symptoms and was sent home. "I don’t really have a lot of reservations about him from a physical health standpoint," said Tomlin. "We do need to get him well from an illness standpoint." If we can believe that, Brown is fine and should be out there at full health tomorrow. I think there's a little uncertainty, but have no actual reason to question Tomlin. My advice: if you're planning on using Brown, go ahead, but have a backup plan in case he winds up inactive.
As for the game, it's going to be really cold -- possibly single digits. I think this favors LeVeon Bell and a defensive struggle. While that might seem to benefit the Jaguars, the Steelers also have a good defense, and the Jacksonville offense is a lot less imposing. They scored on fourth-down touchdown at home last week against Buffalo. So I see no reason why they're going to go into Pittsburgh and do anything of note. I think it's going to be Pittsburgh 20, Jacksonville 10.
Saints at Vikings: I think there's a natural tendency to underestimate the Vikings. For one thing, their quarterback is Case Keenum, who not so long ago was terrible with the Rams and was benched. Their main running back is Latavius Murray, who not so long ago was a 3 yards and a cloud of dust type back in Oakland. Oh, and they usually choke, I mean underachieve, in the playoffs. While the Saints have Drew Brees, the offensive rookie of the year, and a lot more scoring punch.
That being said, the Vikings are home, they've got a nice receiving duo and tight end, and their defense is much, much better. Saints had some good games, but mostly were against poor offenses. Shutting out Miami? Big deal. Cam Newton very nearly beat them in New Orleans last week. The Vikings themselves, albeit with Sam Bradford, mowed through them with ridiculous ease at the beginning of the season. If it comes down to a close game, I have more faith in Drew Brees making plays than Case Keenum. But what if it doesn't come down to a close game, and the Vikings score regularly and the Saints struggle against the year's best defense (statistically) and are behind something like 20-7 in the fourth quarter.
In my picks pool, I'm taking the Saints to cover the 3.5-point spread and taking the under. Game could go either way, but I'm calling it New Orleans 20, Minnesota 19.
Enjoy the games.