Factoid

January 23, 2018

Jacksonville's defense

Jaguars are loaded with defensive playmakers

Jacksonville’s defense comes off a remarkably good season, and they’ve amassed an impressive bundle of talent. But does it make sense to select this defense three rounds before the others next summer in drafts?

The talent is impressive. The team has been bad for a lot of years, allowing them to draft a lot of good players. Jalen Ramsey and Dante Fowler are outstanding, and Myles Jack looks like a second-round steal. Jack might have been a top-5 pick, but there were questions about his knee. The strip-fumble of Dion Lewis on Sunday was probably the most impressive defensive play of the postseason.

They’ve also been investing in defensive free agents, and they’ve been hitting on those purchases. A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson, Barry Church, Tashaun Gibson. This defense is stacked.

The Jaguars were remarkably productive in the regular season, with 8 touchdowns (including one on a punt return), 55 sacks and 33 takeaways.

Using standard basic fantasy scoring, Jacksonville scored 20 more points than any other team on defensive (and special teams) plays. In this century, only eight defenses have scored more points in a season.

I expect Jacksonville will rank in the top 3 on everyone’s draft board next summer. (Today, they would be No. 1 on mine.)

But history tells us that it’s tough for such defenses to actually come through and meet expectations. There’s roster turnover and injuries, some players will underperform, and opponents adjust game plans – when a defense is generating lots of sacks and interceptions, that affects game plans of opponents.

Since 2000, 42 other defenses have scored at least 150 points (fantasy points) in a season. Those great defenses than averaged 44 fewer points the next year. All but four of them scored at least 20 fewer points. Collectively, they averaged 3 fewer touchdowns, 6 fewer sacks and 9 fewer takeaways.

Of those 42 previous defenses that played really well, only 7 ranked in the top 5 in fantasy scoring the next year. That’s 1-in-6 – the same of picking up a dice and rolling it with the expectation of getting a specific number. Just over a third of those teams (15 of 42) at least ranked in the top 10. But nobody’s using an early pick on a defense hoping to rank 7th in scoring at that position.

I like the Jaguars. I find that I am more willing than most to be one of the first to select a kicker or defense if I feel there’s some value there. But my early guess is that in most fantasy leagues, there will be a couple of owners who are willing to select the Jaguars a little earlier than I will. For me, the price has to be right.

On the chart below, if a defense ranked in the top 10 the next year, it's got a black dot. If it ranked in the top 5, it's got an additional dot.

FANTASY DEFENSES WITH 150 POINTS
Year	Team	TD	Sack	Take	Points	Next	Rank
2012	• Chicago	10	41	44	189	129	9
2000	Denver	9	44	44	188	125	13
2007	San Diego	8	42	48	186	102	16
2013	Kansas City	11	47	36	185	92	25
2004	Buffalo	10	45	39	185	112	19
2006	•• Chicago	9	40	44	184	157	2-3
2000	• Tampa Bay	7	55	41	181	144	6
2006	Baltimore	6	60	40	180	102	23
2017	Jacksonville	8	55	33	171	?	?
2014	•• Philadelphia	11	49	28	171	133	5
2009	New Orleans	9	35	39	167	97	24-26
2003	•• New England	7	41	41	167	147	4-5
2003	St. Louis	5	42	46	166	82	30
2000	New Orleans	5	66	35	166	121	14
2010	• New England	9	36	38	166	132	6
2003	•• Baltimore	6	47	41	165	161	2
2000	Oakland	7	43	37	163	119	15
2012	New England	7	37	41	163	124	11
2004	Baltimore	9	39	34	161	111	20
2002	Philadelphia	5	56	37	160	110	16
2001	Chicago	6	48	37	160	103	21
2009	• Philadelphia	6	44	38	160	125	10
2001	Cleveland	5	43	42	159	104	19-20
2002	• Tampa Bay	6	43	38	159	128	8-9
2007	New England	8	47	31	157	81	29
2002	Green Bay	4	43	45	157	116	13-14
2007	• Chicago	8	41	33	157	130	6-7
2001	•• Green Bay	4	52	39	156	157	3
2007	• Minnesota	9	38	31	156	125	10
2011	Detroit	7	41	34	153	70	29
2000	Baltimore	3	35	49	153	113	21-22
2010	Arizona	10	33	30	153	104	18-19
2003	Kansas City	7	36	37	152	104	20-22
2012	Denver	8	52	24	152	123	12
2001	• New England	7	40	35	152	128	10
2000	Tennessee	6	55	30	151	106	24
2002	New Orleans	6	39	38	151	106	19
2017	Baltimore	7	41	34	151	?	?
2011	•• Chicago	9	33	31	151	189	1
2003	Tennessee	7	38	34	150	104	20-22
2013	Seattle	4	44	39	150	105	18-21
2012	San Diego	9	38	28	150	75	31
2000	Miami	3	48	41	150	129	11
2008	•• Philadelphia	7	48	29	150	160	2

—Ian Allan

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