Mike Clay is the winner of the Defense portion of the Experts Poll, and it was the Jacksonville Jaguars that won it for him. Clay ranked that defense higher than anyone else, and they came through in spades for him, piling up sacks, takeaways and touchdowns.
Everyone could see that the Jaguars had stockpiled defensive talent with draft picks and free agent pickups, but they had never quite put things together. So most ranked them in the teens. But Clay, who writes for ESPN, had the stones to rank all the way up at 6th, and it paid off big. The Jaguars scored 171 points in the basic scoring system we were supposing, the most by any defense in the last three years – 20 more than anyone else. That’s using 6 points for touchdowns on defense and special teams, 2 points for takeaways and 1 point for sacks.
Using our notoriously complex scoring grid, that helped create about 2,000 points of value relative to the other 19 contestants. Clay ranked the Jaguars 6th, so that pick was worth 3,420 points for him – 20 x 171. Those who ranked Jacksonville 15th instead received 1,881 points – 11 x 171.
Clay ranked Seattle as his No. 1 defense, and while the Seahawks didn’t have a great year, their defense still ranked 6th in this scoring format. He also benefitted from ranking Arizona only 16th. All but three of the other 19 experts put the Cardinals in their top 7, but they had a lesser year, finishing only 19th in fantasy scoring.
Ken Valis, who earned his way into the field by winning the Fantasy Index Open in 2016, placed 2nd at this position. He was as high as anyone on the Ravens, who finished 2nd in scoring, and he was the highest of everyone on the Rams, who ranked 3rd in scoring – with Wade Phillips helping that defense to a bunch of sacks. Valis ranked those defenses 4th and 7th, but it wasn’t enough to help him make up the difference for Clay being a lot better on Jacksonville.
Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus ranked 3rd at this position. Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts) and Justin Eleff (Fantasy Index Podcast) completed the top 5.
Three of the top 10 defenses in this scoring system were almost completely overlooked in the preseason. The Saints ranked 7th in scoring, but they didn’t appear in anybody’s top 20. The Lions and Bears finishing 4th and 9th, but they were each ranked by only one expert. Scott Sachs (Perfect Season Fantasy Football) ranked Detroit 19th, and Paul Charchian (LeagueSafe) slotted Chicago 16th.
There’s an element of luck in defenses, of course. The Vikings had a great year, allowing fewer yards and points than anyone else, but that wasn’t rewarded in this scoring format. With lesser takeaway numbers, Minnesota finished as a bottom-10 defense in this system. That hurt the half of the field that ranked the Vikings in the top 10. Atlanta similarly had a good defense but finished in the bottom 10. So while David Dorey (The Huddle) ranked next-to-last in points in this category, he logically was actually pretty smart in ranking those defenses 1st and 6th – sometimes stuff just doesn’t work out.
I will score the remaining positions in this competition in the following days. Then we’ll total up the points and crown an overall champion. For now, Clay is the leader.
Also on the docket is the sister competition – the Fantasy Index Open. That contest plays out the same way but has a lot more entries. Scores for that one will be coming soon.
| FANTASY INDEX EXPERTS POLL (defenses) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Expert | Company | Points |
| Mike Clay | ESPN | 33,078 |
| Ken Valis | Gaithersburg, Md. | 32,927 |
| Jeff Ratcliffe | Pro Football Focus | 32,897 |
| Jody Smith | Gridiron Experts | 32,826 |
| Justin Eleff | Fantasy Index Podcast | 32,767 |
| Ryan McDowell | Dynasty League Football | 32,503 |
| Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 32,474 |
| Sam Hendricks | Extra Point Press | 32,039 |
| Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 31,927 |
| Bob Henry | FootballGuys | 31,836 |
| Tony Holm | Fantasy Sharks | 31,810 |
| Chris Liss | RotoWire | 31,781 |
| Ryan Murphy | East Berlin, Pa. | 31,558 |
| Scott Sachs | Perfect Season FF | 31,507 |
| Michael Nazarek | Fan. Football Mastermind | 31,458 |
| Alan Satterlee | Charlotte Observer | 31,419 |
| L.A. Hale | Fantasy Gives | 31,371 |
| Cory Bonini | USA Today Fan. Sports | 31,238 |
| David Dorey | The Huddle | 31,073 |
| Scott Pianowski | Yahoo Sports | 31,024 |
—Ian Allan