Three of the top 7 kicking teams of the last 10 years were on the field in 2017, but what should we make of Greg Zuerlein, Stephen Gostkowski and Harrison Butker? Does past performance indicate future success? Or is it better to fear the inevitable regression to the mean?
Anytime a player at any position has a big year, the tendency is to see some decline. But with Gostkowski, he’s been surprisingly resilient over the years. Six times in the last 10 years the Patriots have had big kicking seasons, and two thirds of those teams the next year have led the league in scoring. The other two have ranked 7th and 8th – disappointing, but not of the crash-and-burn variety.
So overall, very little decline with those teams. In the six big seasons the Patriots averaged 152 kicking points. Those teams came back the next year and averaged 145 kicking points – not much of a drop at all.
It’s been much different for the rest of the league. In the last 10 years, 23 other teams have scored at least 140 kicking points in a season. For that group, their collective average dropped from 145 to 122 points in the next season. Only five of those 23 in the next season ranked in the top 5 in kicker scorer.
While Tom Brady will be 41 in August, he works awfully hard at his craft (for those who haven’t seen the “Tom vs. Time” documentary on YouTube, it’s worth a peak). I haven’t seen much decline in his play. The Patriots tend to be remarkably good, so I would think Gostkowski will be the No. 1 kicker on my board this summer. I’m not locking in on that just yet, but I would think guys like Zuerlein, Butker and Justin Tucker will be a notch behind him.
In this century, 42 teams have entered seasons having scored at least 140 kicking points in the previous year. They are listed below (with the seven teams from last year tagged with black dots).
On the chart below, I’m showing you how many kicking points those teams then scored, as well as their rank among NFL teams. If a team followed up its good season by ranking in the top 5, the team name is in bold. There were a few ties; that’s why you see a few Ts in the rank column.
TEAMS WITH 140 KICKING POINTS (the next year) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Prev | Points | Rk |
2018 | • LA Rams | 168 | ? | ? |
2012 | San Francisco | 166 | 131 | 10 |
2018 | • Kansas City | 163 | ? | ? |
2004 | St. Louis | 163 | 89 | 26 |
2014 | New England | 158 | 156 | 1 |
2017 | Atlanta | 158 | 137 | 8 |
2004 | Indianapolis | 157 | 124 | 3t |
2018 | • New England | 156 | ? | ? |
2015 | New England | 156 | 151 | 1 |
2013 | New England | 153 | 158 | 1 |
2016 | New England | 151 | 127 | 8t |
2014 | Denver | 150 | 128 | 11t |
2015 | Philadelphia | 150 | 105 | 23 |
2009 | NY Giants | 149 | 126 | 5t |
2006 | Arizona | 149 | 116 | 8t |
2009 | New England | 148 | 125 | 7 |
2006 | NY Giants | 148 | 107 | 16t |
2012 | New Orleans | 147 | 111 | 22 |
2010 | San Diego | 146 | 129 | 3t |
2016 | Carolina | 146 | 121 | 15 |
2018 | • San Francisco | 145 | ? | ? |
2013 | NY Giants | 145 | 100 | 26t |
2009 | Philadelphia | 144 | 139 | 2 |
2014 | San Diego | 144 | 106 | 23t |
2012 | New England | 143 | 153 | 1 |
2014 | Seattle | 143 | 134 | 4t |
2011 | Philadelphia | 143 | 118 | 16t |
2013 | Atlanta | 143 | 111 | 22t |
2007 | Chicago | 143 | 126 | 7 |
2018 | • Pittsburgh | 142 | ? | ? |
2011 | Oakland | 142 | 129 | 10 |
2018 | • Baltimore | 141 | ? | ? |
2017 | Baltimore | 141 | 141 | 6 |
2014 | Green Bay | 141 | 134 | 4t |
2008 | Green Bay | 141 | 127 | 7t |
2013 | Minnesota | 141 | 121 | 15 |
2005 | New England | 141 | 101 | 19 |
2018 | • New Orleans | 140 | ? | ? |
2014 | Baltimore | 140 | 129 | 10 |
2012 | Green Bay | 140 | 113 | 21 |
2014 | San Francisco | 140 | 108 | 20 |
2015 | Indianapolis | 140 | 107 | 20 |
—Ian Allan