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Factoid

Difference-making kickers

Can high-scoring kickers come back and do it again?

Three of the top 7 kicking teams of the last 10 years were on the field in 2017, but what should we make of Greg Zuerlein, Stephen Gostkowski and Harrison Butker? Does past performance indicate future success? Or is it better to fear the inevitable regression to the mean?

Anytime a player at any position has a big year, the tendency is to see some decline. But with Gostkowski, he’s been surprisingly resilient over the years. Six times in the last 10 years the Patriots have had big kicking seasons, and two thirds of those teams the next year have led the league in scoring. The other two have ranked 7th and 8th – disappointing, but not of the crash-and-burn variety.

So overall, very little decline with those teams. In the six big seasons the Patriots averaged 152 kicking points. Those teams came back the next year and averaged 145 kicking points – not much of a drop at all.

It’s been much different for the rest of the league. In the last 10 years, 23 other teams have scored at least 140 kicking points in a season. For that group, their collective average dropped from 145 to 122 points in the next season. Only five of those 23 in the next season ranked in the top 5 in kicker scorer.

While Tom Brady will be 41 in August, he works awfully hard at his craft (for those who haven’t seen the “Tom vs. Time” documentary on YouTube, it’s worth a peak). I haven’t seen much decline in his play. The Patriots tend to be remarkably good, so I would think Gostkowski will be the No. 1 kicker on my board this summer. I’m not locking in on that just yet, but I would think guys like Zuerlein, Butker and Justin Tucker will be a notch behind him.

In this century, 42 teams have entered seasons having scored at least 140 kicking points in the previous year. They are listed below (with the seven teams from last year tagged with black dots).

On the chart below, I’m showing you how many kicking points those teams then scored, as well as their rank among NFL teams. If a team followed up its good season by ranking in the top 5, the team name is in bold. There were a few ties; that’s why you see a few Ts in the rank column.

TEAMS WITH 140 KICKING POINTS (the next year)
YearTeamPrevPointsRk
2018• LA Rams168??
2012San Francisco 16613110
2018• Kansas City163??
2004St. Louis1638926
2014New England 1581561
2017Atlanta 1581378
2004Indianapolis 1571243t
2018• New England 156??
2015New England 1561511
2013New England 1531581
2016New England 1511278t
2014Denver15012811t
2015Philadelphia 15010523
2009NY Giants1491265t
2006Arizona 1491168t
2009New England 1481257
2006NY Giants14810716t
2012New Orleans 14711122
2010San Diego 1461293t
2016Carolina 14612115
2018• San Francisco 145??
2013NY Giants14510026t
2009Philadelphia 1441392
2014San Diego 14410623t
2012New England 1431531
2014Seattle 1431344t
2011Philadelphia 14311816t
2013Atlanta 14311122t
2007Chicago 1431267
2018• Pittsburgh 142??
2011Oakland 14212910
2018• Baltimore 141??
2017Baltimore 1411416
2014Green Bay 1411344t
2008Green Bay 1411277t
2013Minnesota 14112115
2005New England 14110119
2018• New Orleans 140??
2014Baltimore 14012910
2012Green Bay 14011321
2014San Francisco 14010820
2015Indianapolis 14010720

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index