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Factoid

Third-year breakout for wide receivers?

Top players seem about as likely to emerge in Year 2

You hear a lot about wide receivers breaking out in their third seasons. So it would be a trend that would benefit guys like Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman and Will Fuller in 2018, if true. But how accurate is it, really?

I took a look at all wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds from 2006 to 2015 -- so, a 10-year period, ending with wide receivers who just completed their third seasons. How many of those players broke out in Year 3 versus Years 1 or 2?

Right off the bat, I ditched players who didn't reach 800 yards in any of their first three seasons. No need to spend a lot of time with the Cody Latimer and Phillip Dorsett types. Hey, maybe those guys will break out in Year 4; it happens. Robert Woods just had his best season in his fourth year in the league. But we're looking at whether guys who actually have breakout seasons are more likely to do it in Year 3 than in their rookie or second seasons.

From that 10-year block of time, we get 46 eligible wideouts -- players drafted in the first three rounds who had an 800-yard season at some point in their first three years. Players listed in bold broke out in Year 3; many went over 1,000 yards for the first time, or turned in an 800-plus yard season after not doing much of anything their first two years in the league. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and most recently Devin Funchess qualify.

Players listed in italics clearly broke out in their second season. Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, DeAndre Hopkins,. Some of those guys had big third seasons, but that wasn't when they broke out.

Players in neither bold nor italics were great (or at least consistent) from Day 1. Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green, Mike Evans. If they went over 1,ooo yards as rookies, they didn't "break out" in year 2 even if they put up big numbers.

DRAFTED WRS (ROUNDS 1-3), FIRST THREE SEASONS (2006-2015)
YearRdPkPlayerYdsTDYdsTDYdsTD
2013127DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.802212106152111
2010122Demaryius Thomas, Den.28325514143410
201114A.J. Green, Cin.10577135011142611
2010124Dez Bryant, Dall.56189289138212
2014112Odell Beckham Jr., NYG130512145013136710
2012392T.Y. Hilton, Ind.86171083513457
201417Mike Evans, T.B.10511212063132112
2007244Sidney Rice, Minn.396414141,3128
2006252Greg Jennings, G.B.63239201212929
2007251Steve Smith, NYG630574112207
2009384Mike Wallace, Pitt.756612571011938
2009129Hakeem Nicks, NYG790610521111927
2014120Brandin Cooks, N.O.55041138911738
2014263Jarvis Landry, Mia.75851157611364
2012245Alshon Jeffery, Chi.367314217113310
2011258Torrey Smith, Balt.8417855811284
2010387Eric Decker, Den.10616128106413
2008249DeSean Jackson, Phil.912411561210568
2014253Davante Adams, G.B.4463483199712
200712Calvin Johnson, Det.75651331129845
200917Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.124136619754
2009122Percy Harvin, Minn.790886879679
2008395Mario Manningham, NYG26082259449
2014128Kelvin Benjamin, Car.10089009417
2012263Rueben Randle, NYG298361169383
2014261Allen Robinson, Jac.54821400148836
2009110Michael Crabtree, S.F.625274168744
2007379Mike Sims-Walker, Jac.0021708697
2009119Jeremy Maclin, Phil.7734964108595
2014239Marqise Lee, Jac.422119118513
2012113Michael Floyd, Ariz.5622104158416
2013374Terrance Williams, Dall.736562188403
2015241Devin Funchess, Car.473537148408
2006125Santonio Holmes, Pitt.824394288215
2014242Jordan Matthews, Phil.872899788043
2013376Keenan Allen, S.D.1046878347254
2012120Kendall Wright, Tenn.6264107927156
201514Amari Cooper, Oak.10706115356807
2008242Eddie Royal, Den.980534526273
2007123Dwayne Bowe, K.C.9955102275894
201116Julio Jones, Atl.95981198105802
2014391John Brown, Ariz.6965100375172
2011264Randall Cobb, G.B.375195484334
201414Sammy Watkins, Buff.9826104794302
20122suppJosh Gordon, Clev.8055164693030
201215Justin Blackmon, Jac.8655415100

Table is sorted by Year 3 receiving yards. There's a gray area on some of these, but I count 14 players who clearly broke out in Year 3, and 16 who put up their big, breakout seasons in Year 2. The remaining 16 were great or at least pretty good right from the get-go.

In short, I don't think wideouts who breakout are much more likely to do it in Year 3 than in Year 2. Seems just as likely that 2017 prospects like Corey Davis and Mike Williams will have breakout seasons as 2016 guys like Josh Doctson or Will Fuller. Key to their success will be staying healthy -- not the benefit of having an extra year of training camp or learning the offense or whatnot.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index