We’re going to see a bunch of quarterbacks taken early, and some of the teams doing the picking already have viable quarterbacks – Josh McCown, Tyrod Taylor and maybe Eli Manning. How much are these rookies going to play?
It depends on the player, of course, and the other options on the roster. With McCown, Taylor and especially Manning, there is no need or urgency to have the rookie quarterback starting right away.
If the Broncos or Cardinals get one of the coveted quarterbacks, they might also be in that group, with Case Keenum and Sam Bradford (is he hurt yet?).
If the Bills trade up into the mix, on the other hand, they’d probably be more likely to start their guy immediately.
And the rookie quarterbacks themselves aren’t all the same. The Browns might be eyeballing the cannon arm of Josh Allen, who completed only 56 percent of his passes at Wyoming last year. If Browns go with Allen, it would be very logical for him to sit for at least the first half of his rookie season.
I saw one report suggesting the Giants are very interested in Sam Darnold. If they get him, he’d probably start by backing up Manning. That move potentially could be driven not by Darnold’s development but it becoming more clear that Manning isn’t good enough anymore.
I’m not sure if the Jets are hoping for Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen (pictured) or one of those other two, but they have the luxury of starting McCown for a few games if they want to go that route.
Ultimately with these rookie quarterbacks, however, the general rule of thumb is that when you pick one high, you get them on the field. In the last 10 years, 13 quarterbacks have been chosen with top-5 picks. Of that group, Jared Goff started only seven games (he wasn’t nearly as good as Case Keenum at that time), but all of the others started double-digit games.
The Jaguars, Eagles and Bears, in recent years, talked about bringing along their rookie quarterbacks slowing, but Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky all ended up starting at least 12 games.
I’m not promising 2018 will wind up the same way, but recent history suggests these young quarterbacks will get on the field sooner rather than later.
Of the 13 said quarterbacks, three put up top-10 numbers in their first year. That’s per-game production, when comparing them to all the other quarterbacks who started at least half of the season. Three quarterbacks ranked in the teens in their first season – Stafford, Winston and Mariota put up above-average numbers – while the other seven all ranked outside the top 20.
On chart below, you’re looking at per-start passing and rushing yards, TD passes per game, TD runs per game and fantasy points (using standard scoring). Jared Goff started only seven games, so he didn’t actually qualify to be ranked in 2016, but he was on his way to ranking about last in comparison with other quarterbacks that year.
| QUARTERBACKS SELECTED WITH TOP-5 PICKS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | Run | TDP | TDR | FPG | Rk |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 215 | 6 | 1.00 | .06 | 15.9 | 21 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 163 | 7 | .80 | .20 | 13.5 | 28 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 227 | 11 | 1.30 | .20 | 19.0 | 14 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 4 | 1.13 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 44 | 1.31 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 15 | 213 | 54 | 1.33 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273 | 16 | 1.44 | .31 | 22.9 | 10 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 207 | 30 | .69 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 12 | 235 | 21 | 1.58 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 253 | 13 | 1.38 | .38 | 21.8 | 17 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 9 | 1.00 | .13 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 156 | 2 | .71 | .14 | 11.7 | ~32 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 183 | 21 | .58 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
—Ian Allan