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First-round wide receivers

Odds heavily against year one stardom

The Cowboys cut Dez Bryant, and now every mock draft is sure they'll draft a wide receiver in the first round. Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton (pictured) and D.J. Moore are the popular choices. And maybe they will. But the history indicates that while that player might go on to be the team's future at wide receiver, he's unlikely to put up big numbers in his first season.

Since 2000, there have been 74 wide receivers selected in the first round; a little over four per year. Nearly as many of those players have caught no passes at all (five) as have gone over 1,000 yards (six). More than half (38) haven't reached 500 yards in their rookie seasons.

FIRST-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, ROOKIE SEASONS (2000-2017)
YearPkPlayerNoYdsTD
201412Odell Beckham Jr., NYG91130512
200415Michael Clayton, T.B.8011937
20154Amari Cooper, Oak.7210706
20114A.J. Green, Cin.6510577
20147Mike Evans, T.B.68105112
201428Kelvin Benjamin, Car.7310089
200723Dwayne Bowe, K.C.709955
20144Sammy Watkins, Buff.659826
20033Andre Johnson, Hou.669764
20116Julio Jones, Atl.549598
20125Justin Blackmon, Jac.648655
200413Lee Evans, Buff.488439
200625Santonio Holmes, Pitt.498243
20047Roy Williams, Det.548178
201327DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.528022
200922Percy Harvin, Minn.607908
200929Hakeem Nicks, NYG477906
20043Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.587808
200919Jeremy Maclin, Phil.567734
20072Calvin Johnson, Det.487565
200115Rod Gardner, Wash.467414
200930Kenny Britt, Tenn.427013
200021Sylvester Morris, K.C.486783
201621Will Fuller, Hou.476353
201220Kendall Wright, Tenn.646264
200910Michael Crabtree, S.F.486252
200213Donte Stallworth, N.O.425948
20004Peter Warrick, Cin.515927
200732Anthony Gonzalez, Ind.375763
201213Michael Floyd, Ariz.455622
201024Dez Bryant, Dall.455618
201420Brandin Cooks, N.O.535504
20019Koren Robinson, Sea.395361
200219Ashley Lelie, Den.355252
20053Braylon Edwards, Clev.325123
201514DeVante Parker, Mia.264943
200522Mark Clayton, Balt.444713
201329Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn.454699
200527Roddy White, Atl.294463
200317Bryant Johnson, Ariz.354381
200521Matt Jones, Jac.364325
20079Ted Ginn Jr., Mia.344203
20138Tavon Austin, St.L.404186
20018David Terrell, Chi.344154
201615Corey Coleman, Clev.334133
20175Corey Davis, Tenn.343750
20057Troy Williamson, Minn.243722
200510Mike Williams, Det.293501
200130Reggie Wayne, Ind.273450
200220Javon Walker, G.B.233191
201520Nelson Agholor, Phil.232831
201022Demaryius Thomas, Den.222832
200125Freddie Mitchell, Phil.212831
200010Travis Taylor, Balt.282763
20008Plaxico Burress, Pitt.222730
20049Reggie Williams, Jac.272681
201126Jon Baldwin, K.C.212541
20032Charles Rogers, Det.222433
201529Phillip Dorsett, Ind.182251
200730Craig Davis, S.D.201881
200431Rashaun Woods, S.F.71601
200029R. Jay Soward, Jac.141541
20097Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.91241
200429Michael Jenkins, Atl.71190
20177Mike Williams, LAC11950
201622Josh Doctson, Wash.2660
200116Santana Moss, NYJ2400
201623Laquon Treadwell, Minn.1150
20179John Ross, Cin.000
20157Kevin White, Chi.000
201526Breshad Perriman, Balt.000
201230A.J. Jenkins, S.F.000
200727Robert Meachem, N.O.000

Bryant himself, of course, shows up a little way down this list, catching 45 passes for 561 yards and 8 TDs as a rookie.

All but one of the 1,000-yard wideouts were selected with a top-15 pick. Many of them (A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans) were a lot more highly regarded than anyone in this year's class. Dallas may have their choice of them when picking 19th next week, so there's that. But that player won't necessarily put up good numbers.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index