Saquon Barkley will be the first rookie running back selected in virtually every fantasy league. Once he's gone, though, there should be other viable first-year backs. Perhaps one of the other two first-rounders selected, New England's Sony Michel or Seattle's Rashaad Penny.
With offensive line issues, Seattle hasn't been a great running team the last couple of years. But when they were good, not too too long ago, they had an elite fantasy producer in Marshawn Lynch.
New England has been a little different. Typically favoring a committee, they usually don't have that one, knock-it-out-of-the-park running back. But they have had some quality fantasy starters in recent years -- considerably more than Seattle.
I looked at the last dozen years for both teams. From 2006-2017, New England had exactly one top-10 fantasy running back: LeGarrette Blount two years ago. Seattle, in contrast, had four top-5 guys, all the same guy: Marshawn Lynch from 2011-2014.
But in that same time period, New England had 18 top-30 fantasy backs; starters in most typical leagues. Seattle had a third as many: Lynch four times, Thomas Rawls in 2015, and Shaun Alexander way back in 2006. (This is non-PPR scoring, by the way.)
NEW ENGLAND'S TOP-30 FANTASY BACKS, 2006-2017 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | FFPts | Rk |
2016 | LeGarrette Blount | 1161 | 38 | 1199 | 18 | 227.9 | 7 |
2012 | Stevan Ridley | 1263 | 51 | 1314 | 12 | 203.4 | 11 |
2017 | Dion Lewis | 896 | 214 | 1110 | 10 | 171.0 | 12 |
2010 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1008 | 85 | 1093 | 13 | 187.3 | 15 |
2006 | Corey Dillon | 812 | 147 | 959 | 13 | 173.9 | 19 |
2013 | Danny Woodhead | 429 | 605 | 1034 | 8 | 151.4 | 19 |
2011 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 667 | 159 | 826 | 11 | 148.6 | 24 |
2007 | Laurence Maroney | 835 | 116 | 951 | 6 | 133.1 | 25 |
2012 | Danny Woodhead | 301 | 446 | 747 | 7 | 116.7 | 25 |
2013 | Stevan Ridley | 773 | 62 | 835 | 7 | 125.5 | 26 |
2010 | Danny Woodhead | 547 | 379 | 926 | 6 | 128.6 | 28 |
2009 | Laurence Maroney | 757 | 99 | 856 | 9 | 139.6 | 29 |
2006 | Laurence Maroney | 745 | 194 | 939 | 7 | 135.9 | 29 |
2008 | Kevin Faulk | 507 | 486 | 993 | 6 | 135.3 | 29 |
2014 | Shane Vereen | 391 | 447 | 838 | 5 | 113.8 | 29 |
2008 | Sammy Morris | 727 | 161 | 888 | 7 | 130.8 | 30 |
2013 | LeGarrette Blount | 772 | 38 | 810 | 7 | 123.0 | 30 |
2015 | LeGarrette Blount | 703 | 43 | 746 | 7 | 116.6 | 30 |
SEATTLE'S TOP-30 FANTASY BACKS, 2006-2017 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | FFPts | Rk |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch | 1306 | 367 | 1673 | 17 | 269.3 | 3 |
2013 | Marshawn Lynch | 1257 | 316 | 1573 | 14 | 241.3 | 4 |
2012 | Marshawn Lynch | 1590 | 196 | 1786 | 12 | 250.6 | 4 |
2011 | Marshawn Lynch | 1204 | 212 | 1416 | 13 | 219.6 | 5 |
2015 | Thomas Rawls | 830 | 76 | 906 | 5 | 120.6 | 26 |
2006 | Shaun Alexander | 896 | 48 | 944 | 7 | 136.4 | 28 |
Based on the year-to-year performance of the running games and the way these teams have generally used their running backs, it looks fair to say that if one of these guys winds up being a workhorse and a fantasy superstar, it's more likely to be Penny. But New England has had a lot more quality fantasy starters in that time frame; on average, 1-2 per year, and 2 equally often as 1.
I've got a rookie draft coming up next week, and I'm not sure which guy will be selected first. Picking 7th, I expect both to be gone before it's my turn. Will be interesting to see who winds up being the better pro. If it were my choice, I think the odds of Michel hitting as a viable fantasy back are better.
--Andy Richardson