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Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny

After Barkley, who will be the next best rookie?

Saquon Barkley will be the first rookie running back selected in virtually every fantasy league. Once he's gone, though, there should be other viable first-year backs. Perhaps one of the other two first-rounders selected, New England's Sony Michel or Seattle's Rashaad Penny.

With offensive line issues, Seattle hasn't been a great running team the last couple of years. But when they were good, not too too long ago, they had an elite fantasy producer in Marshawn Lynch.

New England has been a little different. Typically favoring a committee, they usually don't have that one, knock-it-out-of-the-park running back. But they have had some quality fantasy starters in recent years -- considerably more than Seattle.

I looked at the last dozen years for both teams. From 2006-2017, New England had exactly one top-10 fantasy running back: LeGarrette Blount two years ago. Seattle, in contrast, had four top-5 guys, all the same guy: Marshawn Lynch from 2011-2014.

But in that same time period, New England had 18 top-30 fantasy backs; starters in most typical leagues. Seattle had a third as many: Lynch four times, Thomas Rawls in 2015, and Shaun Alexander way back in 2006. (This is non-PPR scoring, by the way.)

NEW ENGLAND'S TOP-30 FANTASY BACKS, 2006-2017
YearPlayerRunRecTotTDFFPtsRk
2016LeGarrette Blount116138119918227.97
2012Stevan Ridley126351131412203.411
2017Dion Lewis896214111010171.012
2010BenJarvus Green-Ellis100885109313187.315
2006Corey Dillon81214795913173.919
2013Danny Woodhead42960510348151.419
2011BenJarvus Green-Ellis66715982611148.624
2007Laurence Maroney8351169516133.125
2012Danny Woodhead3014467477116.725
2013Stevan Ridley773628357125.526
2010Danny Woodhead5473799266128.628
2009Laurence Maroney757998569139.629
2006Laurence Maroney7451949397135.929
2008Kevin Faulk5074869936135.329
2014Shane Vereen3914478385113.829
2008Sammy Morris7271618887130.830
2013LeGarrette Blount772388107123.030
2015LeGarrette Blount703437467116.630
SEATTLE'S TOP-30 FANTASY BACKS, 2006-2017
YearPlayerRunRecTotTDFFPtsRk
2014Marshawn Lynch1306367167317269.33
2013Marshawn Lynch1257316157314241.34
2012Marshawn Lynch1590196178612250.64
2011Marshawn Lynch1204212141613219.65
2015Thomas Rawls830769065120.626
2006Shaun Alexander896489447136.428

Based on the year-to-year performance of the running games and the way these teams have generally used their running backs, it looks fair to say that if one of these guys winds up being a workhorse and a fantasy superstar, it's more likely to be Penny. But New England has had a lot more quality fantasy starters in that time frame; on average, 1-2 per year, and 2 equally often as 1.

I've got a rookie draft coming up next week, and I'm not sure which guy will be selected first. Picking 7th, I expect both to be gone before it's my turn. Will be interesting to see who winds up being the better pro. If it were my choice, I think the odds of Michel hitting as a viable fantasy back are better.

--Andy Richardson

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