Four quarterbacks were selected with top-10 picks, and I would guess that all of them will start the majority of this season. That’s how it tends to play out nowadays.
I am aware that three of those teams have bridge quarterbacks in place. Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown and Sam Bradford all have some ability to play. (Some would also include AJ McCarron in that group.) But when a team picks a quarterback high in the draft, things generally start rolling to get said prospect on the field.
In the past 10 years, 17 quarterbacks have been chosen with top-10 picks. Only three of those guys didn’t start double-digit games in their first year. Jake Locker sat in 2012, Patrick Mahomes sat last year, and Jared Goff was slow to pick things up with the Rams, limiting him to seven starts.
Note that Locker and Mahomes were 8th and 10th picks – not as heralded as most of the others.
These latest four will play. But if form holds, probably none of them will put up top-20 numbers when they’re on the field.
With the previous group of 17, I see six who ranked in the top 20 in their first season. That’s per-game projection (standard scoring), when compared against other quarterbacks starting at least half of the season. But all but one of those six helped themselves significantly with very good rushing numbers. There are no run-oriented quarterbacks in this recent group (I’m looking at just the top-10 guys, not Lamar Jackson).
Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold all have some ability to move around, but they’re not runners. They’re not like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck, who put up top-10 numbers as rookies. And Josh Rosen doesn’t move much at all.
Here be the rookie numbers from those previous 17. It’s a somewhat bastardized chart, with a mix of per-game averaged and cumulative production, so I will walk you through what you’re looking at.
St = games the player started.
Pass = average passing yards in those starts.
TD = touchdown passes in the games the player started (if he threw touchdowns as a backup in other games, they’re not included).
Int = interceptions in the started games.
Run = average rushing yards in those starts.
TDR = rushing touchdowns in the started games.
Rk = Fantasy points per start rank relative to all quarterbacks with at least eight starts in that season, using standard scoring (1 point for every 20 passing yards, 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, 6 points for touchdowns, 4 points for touchdown passes and 2 points for 2-point conversions).
| QUARTERBACKS SELECTED WITH TOP-10 PICKS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TDR | Rk |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 21 | 17 | 44 | 14 | 4th |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 15 | 213 | 20 | 5 | 54 | 7 | 5th |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273 | 23 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 10th |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 12 | 235 | 19 | 10 | 21 | 3 | 16th |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 253 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 17th |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 227 | 13 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 14th |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 236 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 27th |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 220 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 24th |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 207 | 9 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 27th |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 215 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 21st |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 206 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 28th |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 183 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 29th |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 163 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 28th |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 33rd |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 7 | 156 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -- |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | -- |
| 2012 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
—Ian Allan