As we are putting the finishing touches on the magazine, I thought a little about the occasionally discussed idea that there's some kind of jinx associated with who will appear on the cover. I'm not going to spoil it this year (partly because I'm not certain who it is), but it will definitely be somebody selected in the top handful of picks in every draft. By putting this player on the cover, will we be destroying his career?
I took a look at the 18 players we've put on the cover this century. As I see it, eight players had much worse seasons than typical for their career, usually due to injury. Nine had seasons about as good or better than the seasons which helped get them onto the cover in the first place. One was Tatum Bell.
FANTASY INDEX COVER SUBJECTS, 2000-2017 | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Cover Subject | Outcome |
2000 | Kurt Warner | Missed 5 games, threw half as many TDs as 1999 |
2001 | Daunte Culpepper | Missed 5 games, threw only 14 TDs (33 in 2000) |
2002 | Terrell Owens | Career-high 100 catches for 1,300 yards and 13 TDs |
2003 | Ricky Williams | Good season, but rushed for 500 fewer yards and TDs fell from 17 to 10 |
2004 | Priest Holmes | Missed half the season due to injury |
2005 | Tatum Bell | No comment |
2006 | Shaun Alexander | Missed half the season due to injury; scored 20 fewer TDs |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson | Big season |
2008 | Tom Brady | Blew out knee in Week 1, only missed season of his career |
2009 | Larry Fitzgerald | Big season |
2010 | Chris Johnson | Big season |
2011 | Arian Foster | Missed three games, but good season |
2012 | Rob Gronkowski | Missed five games due to injury |
2013 | Adrian Peterson | Big season |
2014 | Peyton Manning | Big season |
2015 | Andrew Luck | Missed half the season due to injury |
2016 | LeVeon Bell | Missed four games, but good season |
2017 | Ezekiel Elliott | Missed six games, season-long headache for fantasy owners |
Despite the compelling evidence of guys like Tom Brady and Priest Holmes, who appeared on the cover and either had the worst seasons of their career or suffered the injury that effectively ended their fantasy relevance for good, I don't think there's much to the jinx theory. Some guys went out and were a-OK.
So nobody need shy away from the star who makes his parents proud this year.