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Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index cover jinx?

Evidence inconclusive that we ruin careers

As we are putting the finishing touches on the magazine, I thought a little about the occasionally discussed idea that there's some kind of jinx associated with who will appear on the cover. I'm not going to spoil it this year (partly because I'm not certain who it is), but it will definitely be somebody selected in the top handful of picks in every draft. By putting this player on the cover, will we be destroying his career?

I took a look at the 18 players we've put on the cover this century. As I see it, eight players had much worse seasons than typical for their career, usually due to injury. Nine had seasons about as good or better than the seasons which helped get them onto the cover in the first place. One was Tatum Bell.

FANTASY INDEX COVER SUBJECTS, 2000-2017
YearCover SubjectOutcome
2000Kurt WarnerMissed 5 games, threw half as many TDs as 1999
2001Daunte CulpepperMissed 5 games, threw only 14 TDs (33 in 2000)
2002Terrell OwensCareer-high 100 catches for 1,300 yards and 13 TDs
2003Ricky WilliamsGood season, but rushed for 500 fewer yards and TDs fell from 17 to 10
2004Priest HolmesMissed half the season due to injury
2005Tatum BellNo comment
2006Shaun AlexanderMissed half the season due to injury; scored 20 fewer TDs
2007LaDainian TomlinsonBig season
2008Tom BradyBlew out knee in Week 1, only missed season of his career
2009Larry FitzgeraldBig season
2010Chris JohnsonBig season
2011Arian FosterMissed three games, but good season
2012Rob GronkowskiMissed five games due to injury
2013Adrian PetersonBig season
2014Peyton ManningBig season
2015Andrew LuckMissed half the season due to injury
2016LeVeon BellMissed four games, but good season
2017Ezekiel ElliottMissed six games, season-long headache for fantasy owners

Despite the compelling evidence of guys like Tom Brady and Priest Holmes, who appeared on the cover and either had the worst seasons of their career or suffered the injury that effectively ended their fantasy relevance for good, I don't think there's much to the jinx theory. Some guys went out and were a-OK.

So nobody need shy away from the star who makes his parents proud this year.

Fantasy Index