Corey Davis was the first wide receiver drafted a year ago, selected by the Titans at No. 5 overall. He had a disappointing rookie season, albeit finishing with a 2-TD playoff game. Will 2018 be a breakout season?
Early reports are positive. "Davis looked smooth during the offseason, snatching the ball out of the air with ease in traffic," writes titansonline.com's Jim Wyatt. "He went up high to make some spectacular catches. The Titans are counting on Davis to make a big leap in Year 2."
Davis was one of three wide receivers selected in the top 10 in last year's draft, along with Mike Williams and John Ross. None of them did anything noteworthy in their rookie seasons (until Davis in the playoff loss). So it's nice to see Wyatt saying good things about Davis in July.
Since 2000, there have been 25 other wideouts selected with top-10 picks. Twelve of those players put up good or great numbers -- at least top-35 fantasy wideouts, and in most cases even better -- in their rookie seasons, and most have gone on to have excellent careers. (Those 12 are Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Roy Williams, Peter Warrick and Justin Blackmon. Only the last few are clear disappointments.)
Davis, Williams and Ross belong in the other group: the 13 players who didn't put up significant numbers in their rookie season, ranking no better than 50th among fantasy wideouts. How did those players fare over the rest of their career?
Table below shows rookie numbers, fantasy ranking, and then the best fantasy rankings ever turned in by those other 13 wide receivers -- ones drafted in the top 10 but who didn't do anything as rookies.
| WRS DRAFTED IN TOP 10, QUIET ROOKIE SEASON (2000-) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Yds | TD | Rk(1st) | Rk(best) |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 22 | 273 | 0 | 94 | 8 |
| 2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor, Balt. | 28 | 276 | 3 | 74 | 23 |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell, Chi. | 34 | 415 | 4 | 60 | 53 |
| 2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson, Sea. | 39 | 536 | 1 | 64 | 13 |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 22 | 243 | 3 | 89 | 89 |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 27 | 268 | 1 | 98 | 28 |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 32 | 512 | 3 | 53 | 3 |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson, Minn. | 24 | 372 | 2 | 82 | 82 |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams, Det. | 29 | 350 | 1 | 97 | 52 |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. | 34 | 420 | 3 | 73 | 26 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 9 | 124 | 1 | 100+ | 28 |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 40 | 418 | 6 | 50 | 19 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100+ | 100+ |
| 2017 | 5 | Corey Davis, Tenn. | 34 | 375 | 0 | 92 | ? |
| 2017 | 7 | Mike Williams, LAC | 11 | 95 | 0 | 100+ | ? |
| 2017 | 9 | John Ross, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100+ | ? |
Plaxico Burress was the best of those players who didn't do much as rookies. He had a pair of top-10 fantasy seasons in his career, including once finishing No. 3 at the position. Braylon Edwards also had a top-10 season; off-field issues were bigger problems than talent for him.
Of the other 11, only two ever had top-25 fantasy seasons: Koren Robinson and Tavon Austin. With Robinson there were some off-field issues that held him back. Austin has basically been a bust.
The other nine turned in a serviceable season or two at some point in their careers. They include Ted Ginn, who has had a couple of top-30 seasons, including with New Orleans last year. But rewind to those various drafts, and Burress is the only one of the 13 players who would again be selected with top-10 picks.
I kind of like Davis. Had that really nice touchdown catch against New England, and it's a new coaching staff in Tennessee, including coordinator Matt LaFleur (who worked under Sean McVay last season). But the injury-marred seasons of Ross and Williams had no such highlights. Difficult to be optimistic about either going forward.
--Andy Richardson