If we’re going by what coaches and owners say, we’ll all want to draft Christian McCaffrey and Marlon Mack as our running backs this year. Take those two in the middle rounds and you should finish with well over 3,000 yards.
Norv Turner, of course, suggested on Thursday that McCaffrey might get more than 400 touches this year. Not to be outdone, Colts owner Jim Irsay a day later suggested he also could be sitting on a back who’ll put up monster numbers.
“I think Mack has a chance to be a special guy this year,” Irsay told The Indianapolis Star. “Depends on how many times you want to feed him the ball, 16-20 touches on the ground (per game) and I could see him approaching 1,500 yards. I really could. He is just better than you think he is every time you watch him.”
At this time last year, of course, Irsay was promising Andrew Luck would be starting on opening day.
More realistically, the Colts probably will use a committee approach at running back. They drafted a pair of running backs in the middle rounds, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins, and all three backs have been rotating reps with the first-unit offense.
I will concede, however, that Mack looks like the best of these three to me. He looked pretty outstanding in a preseason game at Dallas last year, then had a shoulder injury that plagued him all year.
And while Mack didn’t light it up as a rookie, he should some big-play ability. He had 6 runs over 20 yards last year despite carrying only 93 times. Among backs with at least 50 carries, only one (Aaron Jones) had a higher rate of long runs. And Mack had 4 catches over 20 yards among his 19 receptions. Among running backs averaged at least a catch per game, only four had a better big-play rate.
I’ve listed the top 20 in each category below. Only two other backs show up on both lists: Alvin Kamara and Tevin Coleman.
| TOP 20 BIG-PLAY RUNNERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | 20+ | Pct |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 81 | 448 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 93 | 358 | 3.8 | 6 | 6.5% |
| Dalvin Cook, Minn. | 74 | 354 | 4.8 | 4 | 5.4% |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 133 | 644 | 4.8 | 7 | 5.3% |
| Bilal Powell, NYJ | 178 | 772 | 4.3 | 9 | 5.1% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 230 | 1,124 | 4.9 | 11 | 4.8% |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 105 | 458 | 4.4 | 5 | 4.8% |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 87 | 370 | 4.3 | 4 | 4.6% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 272 | 1,327 | 4.9 | 12 | 4.4% |
| Mike Davis, Sea. | 68 | 240 | 3.5 | 3 | 4.4% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 287 | 1,138 | 4.0 | 12 | 4.2% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 6.1 | 5 | 4.2% |
| LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 173 | 766 | 4.4 | 7 | 4.0% |
| Dion Lewis, N.E. | 180 | 896 | 5.0 | 7 | 3.9% |
| D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 78 | 327 | 4.2 | 3 | 3.8% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 156 | 628 | 4.0 | 6 | 3.8% |
| Jalen Richard, Oak. | 56 | 275 | 4.9 | 2 | 3.6% |
| Orleans Darkwa, NYG | 171 | 751 | 4.4 | 6 | 3.5% |
| Alfred Morris, Dall. | 115 | 547 | 4.8 | 4 | 3.5% |
| Latavius Murray, Minn. | 216 | 842 | 3.9 | 7 | 3.2% |
| TOP-20 BIG-PLAY PASS CATCHERS (RBs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | 20+ | Pct |
| Jay Ajayi, Mia-Phi | 24 | 158 | 6.6 | 6 | 25.0% |
| Chris Thompson, Wash. | 39 | 510 | 13.1 | 9 | 23.1% |
| Benny Cunningham, Chi. | 20 | 240 | 12.0 | 4 | 20.0% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 26 | 269 | 10.3 | 5 | 19.2% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 21 | 225 | 10.7 | 4 | 19.0% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 64 | 788 | 12.3 | 12 | 18.8% |
| Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 20 | 151 | 7.6 | 3 | 15.0% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 27 | 299 | 11.1 | 4 | 14.8% |
| Chris Ivory, Jac. | 21 | 175 | 8.3 | 3 | 14.3% |
| Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 51 | 421 | 8.3 | 7 | 13.7% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 81 | 826 | 10.2 | 11 | 13.6% |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 30 | 275 | 9.2 | 4 | 13.3% |
| Alex Collins, Balt. | 23 | 187 | 8.1 | 3 | 13.0% |
| Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 23 | 173 | 7.5 | 3 | 13.0% |
| Andre Ellington, Az-Hou | 39 | 369 | 9.5 | 5 | 12.8% |
| Duke Johnson, Clev. | 74 | 693 | 9.4 | 9 | 12.2% |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 33 | 315 | 9.5 | 4 | 12.1% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 25 | 262 | 10.5 | 3 | 12.0% |
| Elijah McGuire, NYJ | 17 | 177 | 10.4 | 2 | 11.8% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 27 | 279 | 10.3 | 3 | 11.1% |
—Ian Allan