Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Extended dance-mix version. Scoping out Washington's backfield post-Guice. Why Jarvis Landry is better than Josh Gordon. Speeding up the snail pace of an auction. And much, much (much, much) more.
Question 1
Your thoughts on which RB benefits in Washington from the Guice injury (PPR).
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
Chris Thompson will catch a lot of ball and also maybe run for 400-plus yards. In a PPR format, he’s got a chance to be a top-25 running back. That might seem weird, but the PPR format is a different animal – receiving production is key. In the Monday product, Andy wrote up the Washington capsule. He had first eyes on that game. I watched that game on Monday and I thought both Samaje Perine and Robert Kelley looked pretty good. To me, they both look like they’ve improved over last year. Kelley has lost some weight, and it’s noticeable. He was an effective, productive back in the second half of 2016. Perine has had some ball security issues, but I think he can run just fine. He wasn’t effective in the second half of last year, but the offensive line had been decimated by injuries at that time. In my opinion, the Guice injury isn’t a killer for Washington. They’ll start either Perine or Kelley, with Thompson mixed in liberally as a deluxe third-down back. Both Perine and Kelley might get turns in the starting lineup, but I would guess it will be Perine at the start. They’ve got some other backs trying to carve out roles, but I will leave them out of the equation for now. Byron Marshall or Kapri Bibbs might emerge as something at some point, but for now I see it as a three-back puzzle including Thompson, Perine and Kelley.
Question 2
What are your thoughts on Jarvis Landry in the wake of Callaway's off the field troubles and Josh Gordon possibly being out of football for good. Also, are we not paying enough attention to the Ravens ? They've looked fantastic thus far in preseason, that might be this year's #1 defense. Flacco looks superb and the offense has been humming along.
Rob Dammers (Wellington, FL)
Landry has caught my eye in the Hard Knocks series. He’s a true pro. He really works hard at it. He’s not a guy who’s happy to be cashing his checks for X million per year. Clearly he’s super competitive, working hard on his route running, and he seems to catch it about as well as anyone in contested situations. Even if he’s well covered, he can come up with the ball. When you compare that to Gordon, who’s not even around, there’s no comparison. I will be drafting Landry long before Gordon. (Agree on the Ravens, but I’ve got that addressed in a different letter.)
Question 3
Any suggestions on how to speed up an auction? we switched about 6-7 years ago and the main complaint has been how long it takes (4+ hours). I find that some guys lose interest and or too intoxicated by the end. One suggestion I heard was to have a set list on who gets nominated so you don’t waste time at that point. It does eliminate any strategy of when you want to nominate players though. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)
If you’re using a salary cap of $200, you might be able to save an hour by instead going with $100 – there would be only half as many dollars to bid. You might also try a combination draft/auction. With a “Drauction”, give each team $100 to spend on perhaps five players. After the auction portion of the evening, you go to a traditional draft (with the team that spent the least in the auction getting to pick first in each round).
Question 4
Last year you posted offensive projections by team. Can you put up this year’s projection?
Andrew Beach (Toronto, ON)
I typically put those up on Wednesday or Thursday. I missed it this week, but I did audit those numbers as I was putting together the revised projections for the Thursday update. I’ve still got the Packers and Patriots as the offenses most like to average about 3 TDs per game. Three of my four lowest-scoring offenses come from the AFC East.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | TDP | TDR | Total |
| Green Bay | 36.0 | 12.0 | 48.0 |
| New England | 30.4 | 17.3 | 47.7 |
| New Orleans | 28.3 | 17.9 | 46.2 |
| LA Rams | 28.8 | 16.6 | 45.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 30.7 | 12.6 | 43.4 |
| Philadelphia | 30.7 | 12.3 | 43.0 |
| LA Chargers | 29.0 | 10.7 | 39.7 |
| Minnesota | 26.4 | 13.1 | 39.5 |
| Seattle | 27.0 | 10.7 | 37.8 |
| Atlanta | 24.8 | 12.5 | 37.3 |
| Jacksonville | 20.8 | 16.5 | 37.3 |
| Kansas City | 24.2 | 12.5 | 36.6 |
| Houston | 26.6 | 9.8 | 36.3 |
| Indianapolis | 26.1 | 10.2 | 36.3 |
| Dallas | 19.4 | 16.8 | 36.2 |
| Oakland | 24.8 | 11.2 | 36.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 27.7 | 8.3 | 36.0 |
| Tennessee | 23.5 | 12.5 | 36.0 |
| Baltimore | 23.0 | 12.8 | 35.8 |
| Carolina | 21.0 | 14.9 | 35.8 |
| Detroit | 25.8 | 10.1 | 35.8 |
| NY Giants | 23.8 | 11.8 | 35.7 |
| Cincinnati | 25.0 | 10.4 | 35.4 |
| San Francisco | 22.6 | 12.3 | 34.9 |
| Washington | 24.3 | 10.2 | 34.6 |
| Cleveland | 22.4 | 11.4 | 33.8 |
| Denver | 21.4 | 10.4 | 31.8 |
| Chicago | 19.4 | 12.5 | 31.8 |
| Miami | 23.0 | 8.6 | 31.7 |
| Arizona | 19.5 | 10.1 | 29.6 |
| NY Jets | 17.9 | 11.7 | 29.6 |
| Buffalo | 17.6 | 9.6 | 27.2 |
Question 5
I’m trying to get a handle on Alex Collins’ draft value. In my custom rankings, he ranks as the 16th best back. That suggests he’d be a third-rounder in my 10-team league and probably a weekly starter for the owner who drafts him. Seems a little risky, especially considering he will be sharing time with Javorius Allen and the Ravens’ offense has been a snoozefest in recent years. Are you sold on taking Collins that high? Also, do you think Lamar Jackson as a potential wildcat QB will affect the fantasy values of Collins and other Ravens players this year?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
I don’t think Lamar Jackson will play much this year. I don’t think he’s going to be a factor. In the first two preseason games, he’s gone 11 of 28, with 5 sacks. Right now it seems like he’s just taking one look at a primary receiver. If that’s not open, he’s pulling the ball down and trying to run. I don’t think that’s enough. Jackson is mobile, but he’s not the second coming of Michael Vick. I see him as more like another Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor. Joe Flacco is the clear quarterback of that team, and he looks like he’s a lot better than he’s been in the recent years. I expect the Ravens will be improved, but it will be with Flacco at quarterback and running a conventional system.
Question 6
Which better-than-average defenses do you think should dominate the offenses within their divisions? This year I'm looking at New England (as usual) and Pittsburgh. Any other Ds stand out in divisions with lesser offenses?
MIKE HERNANDEZ (Yakima, WA)
New England for sure, with the three lesser opponents in the AFC East. But I wouldn’t be looking to target the Steelers. I’m not sure that defense is going to be quite the same without Ryan Shazier. And I believe all three of those other AFC North offenses will be a lot better. I expect the Ravens, Bengals and Browns will all score more points and gain more yards this year. I have skimmed over the other divisions, and I don’t see another one that has two offenses that look especially fantasy friendly to defenses. In Week 1 of the preseason, the Cardinals were the one that most caught my eye. Josh Rosen will take over at some point (he might start 10-12 games) and looks like he’ll dish up plenty of sacks and interceptions. He attempted a handful of really dangerous passes against the Chargers. He threw one ball that was undercut for what should have been an interception going the other way. He attempted multiple throws with players hanging on him. And he attempted a 40-yard ball out of his end zone to a wide receiver who was well covered. Typically rookie quarterbacks are looking to just quickly get the ball out of their hands to avoid sacks and interceptions. Rosen looks far more likely to willing to attempt difficult throws that will get him in trouble. On the one hand, I like that quality. He might end up developing into the best of these rookie quarterbacks. But for 2018, he might be in over his skis at times.
Question 7
The last time there was a major rule change for how officials called defensive penalties was 2004 when they implemented new illegal contact calls. That year saw a spike in offense, particularly with the passing games and QB play. Manning, Culpepper, and Donovan McNabb all had huge years. With the new lowering the helmet rule and a redefined catch rule, could we see a similar spike in scoring? If we do, who is more likely the benefit, the passing games or the running game?
Benjamin MacLeod (Concord, NH)
This lowering-the-helmet rule isn’t for defenses. It’s for everyone. There are running backs who tend to go rhino style, trying to run guys over. Devonta Freeman, Isaiah Crowell and Rob Kelley, for example. They’re trying to dial back that style of play, so some of those runs will be called back. Offensive linemen could also be flagged. But I don’t expect to see flags flying all over the place. I have seen fewer than I expected in the preseason games, and my expectation was that the officials were going to try to set the tone by calling more in August. The game is evolving, but I don’t think it will jump out as being dramatically differently. Overall, scoring should be up, but it will be driven more by health than rule changes (there were a lot of quarterback injuries last year).
Question 8
With offenses shifting more and more toward the passing game, it becomes viable to select No. 2 wide receivers and expect big numbers. In recent memory, how many No. 2 wide receivers have notched top-15 numbers over the course of a season?
Geoff Maleman (Los Angeles, CA)
According to my figures, if you take away the most productive wide receiver from each team, 33 other wide receivers in this century have finished with top-15 numbers. Standard scoring. That’s 33 out of 270 – 12 percent of the receivers in that group.
| SECOND RECEIVERS WITH TOP-15 NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Rec | Run | TD | Pts | Rk |
| 2000 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 82 | 1635 | 7 | 6 | 200.2 | 7 |
| 2000 | Ed McCaffrey, Den. | 101 | 1317 | 0 | 9 | 187.7 | 8 |
| 2000 | Cris Carter, Minn. | 96 | 1274 | 0 | 9 | 181.4 | 10 |
| 2001 | Jerry Rice, Oak. | 83 | 1139 | 0 | 9 | 167.9 | 12 |
| 2002 | Peerless Price, Buff. | 94 | 1252 | -13 | 9 | 177.9 | 7 |
| 2002 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 78 | 1325 | 0 | 7 | 176.5 | 8 |
| 2004 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 77 | 1210 | -4 | 12 | 192.6 | 8 |
| 2004 | Donald Driver, G.B. | 84 | 1208 | 4 | 9 | 177.2 | 10 |
| 2004 | Brandon Stokley, Ind. | 68 | 1077 | 0 | 10 | 167.7 | 11 |
| 2004 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 89 | 1292 | 0 | 6 | 165.2 | 13 |
| 2005 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 84 | 1483 | 3 | 9 | 202.6 | 3 |
| 2005 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 78 | 956 | 62 | 8 | 149.8 | 14 |
| 2006 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 86 | 1310 | 0 | 9 | 187.0 | 3 |
| 2006 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 90 | 1081 | 6 | 9 | 162.7 | 11 |
| 2007 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin. | 112 | 1143 | 14 | 12 | 187.7 | 7 |
| 2007 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 112 | 1175 | 34 | 8 | 168.9 | 11 |
| 2008 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 89 | 1038 | 67 | 11 | 176.5 | 7 |
| 2009 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 123 | 1348 | 36 | 4 | 162.4 | 12 |
| 2010 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 70 | 964 | 36 | 10 | 160.0 | 14 |
| 2011 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 76 | 1192 | 0 | 7 | 161.2 | 12 |
| 2012 | Eric Decker, Den. | 85 | 1064 | 0 | 13 | 184.4 | 7 |
| 2012 | Roddy White, Atl. | 92 | 1351 | 0 | 7 | 177.1 | 10 |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 89 | 1421 | 105 | 7 | 196.6 | 8 |
| 2013 | Eric Decker, Den. | 87 | 1288 | 0 | 11 | 194.8 | 9 |
| 2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 91 | 1287 | 37 | 12 | 206.4 | 5 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101 | 1404 | 44 | 9 | 200.8 | 7 |
| 2014 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 71 | 1077 | 0 | 8 | 155.7 | 15 |
| 2015 | Eric Decker, NYJ | 80 | 1027 | 0 | 12 | 174.7 | 11 |
| 2015 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 64 | 1031 | 0 | 10 | 163.1 | 15 |
| 2016 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 75 | 997 | 0 | 12 | 173.7 | 7 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1137 | 0 | 9 | 167.7 | 9 |
| 2016 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 83 | 1153 | 0 | 5 | 149.3 | 13 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 0 | 8 | 139.7 | 15 |
Question 9
I can keep Shepard for $2 this year, and Moncrief for $2 this year and $3 next year. Shepard is no-brainer. Drop penalties on Moncrief would be $1 in '18 and $2 in '19 (cap money - which is maintained all year long rather than FAAB for pickups - i.e. you get back what you drop for weekly bids). I'm leaning towards a wait and see on Moncrief and keeping him. What do you think? (Those are my only potential keepers).
David Leonard (Ormond Beach, FL)
I’m not a big Moncrief fan. That’s a lesser passing offense, and they have a lot of other guys. But they are paying him $9.6 million this year, so they must see something I don’t. Also note that it’s a one-year deal, so if you keep Moncrief, you’ll still have him next year if he winds up in some cherry role on another team. There was an additional component in this question about a balancing a $2, 000 salary cap, but I couldn’t understand it.
Question 10
Reviewing your rankings in 2018, 2017, and 2016, it seems that this year you're forecasting more points and auction $ to the top-end running backs relative to WR and QB when I compared prior year's products at a similar point in camp in identical scoring formats. It appears to be the RB position in general, but in particular, Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliot seem to be another tier ahead of where the top players were projecting in 2017 and 2016 in standard format. Looking back, in 2017 you were projecting more relative points/$ to QBs and in 2016 it was WR. Other than recognizing that your projections mean that I should plan on having one of Gurley or Elliot on my roster, are there other strategy points to consider? How would you take advantage of a "standard" owner who is bidding off a list that doesn't vary prices year to year based on projected player points at each position? Or, does recognizing the difference not really matter as it is just played out in the pricing your calculator automatically generates from the projected points?
Don Schroeder (Edina, MN)
I’m projecting stat totals for each guy. When converting those to auction values, I’m trying to identify the best player at each position that I believe will go for the $1 minimum. At the running back and wide receiver positions, I’m typically assuming about 30 percent of the players will go for the min. At quarterback and tight end, I try to go with more like 35 percent going for the min, but that’s harder this year with the quarterbacks (doing so would mean having to define some really good players as being worth only $1.00). After the baselines have been set, the values are created. The further away from the baseline the player is, the more he is “worth”. I haven’t looked at how the values stack up to previous years. If there’s more of a trend towards running backs, it’s coming from how I have forecasted the players and where the baselines are being set. Last year was a little bit of a down year for passing games; that might be influencing the deflated figures for quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Question 11
I’m in a TD league where passing TDs are worth 6. We start 2 WRs and 1 each QB, RB, TE, PK and D. At least 8 owners will draft a QB in Round 1, and that the 2nd and 3rd rounds will be a split; 6 WRs and 6 RBs in each round, except for Gronkowski, who always goes in Rd 2 or 3. Can you suggest any especially good draft strategies?
Philip Haines (Seattle, WA)
When you move to 6 points for touchdown passes, there definitely will be increased demand for that position. Doesn’t surprise me at all that maybe eight will be selected in the first round. But let’s also keep in mind that this isn’t a typical year for quarterbacks. There are a lot of very good ones. In your draft, I would be inclined to let others selected quarterbacks in the first three rounds. Maybe even sit out the fourth. I would instead work on the other key positions in that area, then come back and select a pair of quarterbacks later on. I would figure that all of those owners selecting quarterbacks in the first round would then be hungry to address RB-WR in rounds 2-3-4. If you come out of your draft with two top-20 quarterbacks, plus maybe one wild-card third quarterback (given the scoring premium), you should be fine at the position.
Question 12
Hey Ian, love the custom tool you guys put out every year, only resource I use for all my drafts. I am wondering how you determine what number of players at each position to value at more than the minimum when using the auction values. I try to enter my best guess for the number of players I think will be taken at each position, then go to the lowest ranked guy I think should go for more than the minimum. Every time I do that Todd Gurley is coming up as significantly more valued than any other player in PPR formats. I like Gurley a lot, and he is number one on my board as well, but I am not sure if he should be 12+ dollars more valuable than any other player. Is this because I use $200 budgets instead of $100? Or does Gurley just grade out as that much more valuable than everyone else in PPR formats? Thanks again for all the help.
Adam Sheets (Santa Rosa, CA)
On supply-demand, I tend to start with about 70 percent of running backs and wide receivers going for more than min. Try about 65 percent of tight ends and quarterbacks because at those positions you’re more likely to find something good in the late rounds or even on the waiver wire. As for Gurley, I also noticed he’s coming out really valuable. I have no problems with selecting him (I think I’ve bought him in two of my three auctions) but it’s reasonable to believe that some of the value comes from the bias of him having been so good last year. I would buy Gurley before the other backs, but I wouldn’t be excited about blowing the top off the market by $10.
Question 13
Hey Ian, the 22nd year of our 12-team, 20-round, standard scoring snake draft league. I adhere to the take a kicker & defense a little earlier strategy to get an edge at the position. Most of the owners are pretty savvy at this point; in your opinion, what are some names that you think may be there in that 20th round that make sense as a lottery ticket? Thanks & good luck this year!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
I like Tennessee and Detroit. I think those defenses could be on the rise. I like that New England gets to play four games against Buffalo and New York.
Question 14
I am in a 12-team, 1 pt per 25 yards, TD-heavy league. Do you want to target slot receivers in your draft? My thinking is they have more chances of scoring.
JOHN CLINE (Everett, WA)
I tend to go more the opposite direction. Many players in the slot tend to run mostly shorter routes underneath, so it’s harder for them to hit on long touchdowns. Without scoring some touchdowns from longer range, it’s harder to finish with a good scoring total. Look at chart below, showing all wide receivers who’ve caught at least 100 passes in the last two years. While it’s a subjective exercise, I’ve attempted to flag the slot guys in bold, and you can see they’ve tended to score on a lower percentage of their catches.
| PERCENTAGE OF CATCHES RESULTING IN TOUCHDOWNS (2016-17) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | TD | Pct |
| Kenny Stills | 100 | 15 | 15% |
| Davante Adams | 149 | 22 | 15% |
| Jordy Nelson | 150 | 20 | 13% |
| Dez Bryant | 119 | 14 | 12% |
| Marvin Jones | 116 | 13 | 11% |
| Rishard Matthews | 118 | 13 | 11% |
| Michael Crabtree | 147 | 16 | 11% |
| Brandin Cooks | 143 | 15 | 10% |
| Mike Evans | 167 | 17 | 10% |
| Antonio Brown | 207 | 21 | 10% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 109 | 11 | 10% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 101 | 10 | 10% |
| Tyrell Williams | 112 | 11 | 10% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 174 | 17 | 10% |
| Tyreek Hill | 136 | 13 | 10% |
| Amari Cooper | 131 | 12 | 9% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 111 | 10 | 9% |
| Doug Baldwin | 169 | 15 | 9% |
| Robby Anderson | 105 | 9 | 9% |
| A.J. Green | 141 | 12 | 9% |
| Cole Beasley | 111 | 9 | 8% |
| Sterling Shepard | 124 | 10 | 8% |
| Brandon LaFell | 116 | 9 | 8% |
| Jamison Crowder | 133 | 10 | 8% |
| Ted Ginn | 107 | 8 | 7% |
| Stefon Diggs | 148 | 11 | 7% |
| Michael Thomas | 196 | 14 | 7% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 126 | 9 | 7% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 148 | 10 | 7% |
| DeSean Jackson | 106 | 7 | 7% |
| Mike Wallace | 124 | 8 | 6% |
| Randall Cobb | 126 | 8 | 6% |
| Jarvis Landry | 206 | 13 | 6% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 173 | 10 | 6% |
| Jermaine Kearse | 106 | 6 | 6% |
| Adam Thielen | 160 | 9 | 6% |
| Robert Woods | 107 | 6 | 6% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 216 | 12 | 6% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 126 | 7 | 6% |
| Keenan Allen | 108 | 6 | 6% |
| Julio Jones | 171 | 9 | 5% |
| Marqise Lee | 119 | 6 | 5% |
| Golden Tate | 183 | 9 | 5% |
| DeVante Parker | 113 | 5 | 4% |
| Adam Humphries | 116 | 3 | 3% |
| Pierre Garcon | 119 | 3 | 3% |
Question 15
In setting up the custom auction values I am a little lost on how many of each position to project and how many above the minimum bid to enter. I'm in a 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 Defense and 6 Bench. This is the first time doing an auction, we will have a $200 cap to play with. Could you please offer what you would use for some "default" numbers that I can plug in for how many of each position and minimum to get the auction dollar values.
Mike Bayless ()
Decide how many guys at each position will be drafted. There are going to 180 chosen (15 x 12 teams). Perhaps 24 QB, 53 RB, 58 WR, 21 TE, 12 K and 12 Defenses. Roster positions in your league are tight, so I’m speculating that nobody will select a backup kicker or defense and that a few will skate with one tight end (figuring they’ll pick up their second later on). Then I tend to go with 65-70 percent at each position going for more than $1 minimum. I’d go with 17 QBs (going for at least $1), 37 RB, 41 WR, 14 TE, 3 K and 3 Def. Try those numbers, plug them in, and see if you like how they come out.
Question 16
Quick keeper question. Keep Derrick Henry in the 5th or Marlon Mack in the 13th round? Scoring is weighted to TD’s and big scoring plays.
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
Henry is the safer selection, but Mack looked pretty good in his brief appearance at Seattle.
Question 17
This is a snake draft question, specifically the Flex position. Do we follow Fantasy Index's customized rankings strictly, or do we use our judgment and Ian's advice, and NOT strictly follow the list? We know the answer is NOT, because we know that even though QB Rodgers may be ranked in the top 10 overall, this is the year we ought to wait and pick two QBs from among the last remaining of the top 16 QBs (Unless Rodgers is still available in the 4th or 5th Round). But what about the Flex position? Do we take a second TE because they're ranked higher than the WRs and RBs still available, and slot them in as our Flex, or do we fill all the RB and WR slots before taking a Flex, and then take the player who is projected to score the most fantasy points? I suspect the latter, but am asking to make sure. Thanks.
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
For me personally, I’ve got the rankings in front of me, but then I’m also reading the draft as it’s unfolding. Are a bunch of upcoming teams going to select wide receivers? Is there only one running back left that I really like (while there are 4-5 wide receivers who look pretty similar?) Do I believe Hayden Hurst will make it to the 15th round? I think there’s value to reacting to what’s happening around you.
Question 18
I received pick 3 in a 12 team ppr snake. After setting up the custom scoring profile the results had Zeke as the #2 overall pick. I'm pretty certain he's there for me at 3 in this league, which I actually like. At pick 22 and 27 there's a lot of flexibility, but those 2 picks become pretty important being you don't pick again for a while. Is that a spot for back to back WR's and is 1 of those picks too early for a Joe Mixon?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
Mixon looked pretty in his preseason debut. I don’t know if you’ll be able to get him at 22. I have been in a similar spot in multiple PPR drafts, and I’ve been taking a running back followed by two wide receivers.
Question 19
In a 12 non-ppr league ESPN standard. I have the 5th pick, I have a feeling Brown will be there. Do I take him or Hunt? If there's a run on RB, don't want to get stuck without a stud. If Brown does go before I pick, I am hesitant to select DJ. Thoughts?
Jason Appleby (Selkirk, NY)
My preference would be to take a running back. I wouldn’t want that position to develop into a problem in the later rounds.
Question 20
I just did some research about my individual league draft and I am curious as to your thoughts on the usefulness. This is only valuable on a league-by-league basis. The purpose was to determine what amount of each position will be taken by the time I select. I looked at my past three years and was surprised by how consistent it was. For example in round 5 (my pick 51) the positions drafted for the three years with most recent year first is RB-23-20-21 WR 23-21-19 QB-3-6-7 TE-1-3-3. Why is this useful? This year, for example, I would start Jet WR Anderson and NE WR Hogan. Based on my research, they SHOULD be there in round 5, so I may take a third RB in round 4 knowing they will be there in round 5. I think I will note with lines the expected round cutoffs by position. On one hand this is extremely obvious and something we all do in our heads but I am surprised how consistent it is. And yes, obviously people all have different rankings so.
Yaesha Newman ()
You also have to work in the reality that some of the owners are making picks that you don’t agree with at all. When there have been 34 wide receivers selected, you’re not then getting your 35th wide receiver – you’re more likely getting your 25th receiver. For me, once I get to the third round, I find that I’m often tending to select the same guys. Also factor in that if you spend an hour tabulating a chart of who was picked in previous years, that’s an hour that might be better spent carefully looking at all of the preseason carries by some back you’re considering in the later rounds.
Question 21
I’m in an 8-team PPR (I have 7th pick) and I’m almost certain the first 6 picks are Gurley Bell Brown Kamara Johnson Elliott which leaves me the choice of Hopkins or Barkley Cook Hunt Gordon. Do I go Hopkins? And if not which RB? Either way one of the rbs are going to be there so as of now I’m thinking Hopkins is the choice. Thanks!
Nicholas Heuton (Carroll, IA)
I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting two running backs. The guys are similar, and developments in the upcoming weeks no doubt will tweak the order. Hopkins also in the mix. You may want to operate under the assumption that you’ll draft 2 RB and 2 WR in the first four rounds. You’ve got picks 7, 10, 23 and 26. Using our stat projections, compare expected production with the various positional combos. If you put off wide receivers, I would think you might get a couple of guys like Cooper, Hilton and Smith-Schuster in the third and fourth rounds, and that would be a nice pair.
Question 22
I am in a keeper league and I get to hold two guys from last year. My top 3 are Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon and Jerick McKinnon. Who do you keep?
Tom Clark ()
McKinnon is banged up, and I’m not sure how good is he anyway. I would ride with Thomas and Mixon.
Question 23
Seems like you have a man crush on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Amari Cooper. But if you play in multiple money leagues, at what point in your drafting process do you think taking the same player is a good thing? Don't you want to diversify your teams a little specifically in rounds 2-4 as there are many other fine options available?
Dennis Salisbury (Cranston, RI)
Sounds fine to me. I don’t feel strongly about it. I will be tweaking my board all along, so some changes could occur organically. T.Y. Hilton, for example, has been moving up my board. He’s healthy, Andrew Luck’s healthy, and they look like they’re going to be a good combo. I selected Hilton before Smith-Schuster in a draft last week.
Question 24
Over my 30 year career of playing fantasy football I have for the most part embraced the NFL rules changes, but this head lowing rule to me (as much as I sort of understand it) seems to be going a bit too far as it is such a natural human instinct in the game of football and to try and change that will be quite difficult for the players not to mention the subjectivity of calling the penalty from the referee's perspective. Are there any players that you are downgrading because of this new rule or am I over thinking it which I've done a time or three over the years.
Jay Harding (Oregon City, OR)
I will be interested to see how it plays out. I think the game is changing before our eyes. They need to make it safer, so it will trend to being more like flag football in the coming years. But they’ve got to reduce the serious injuries. This helmet rule will change the way people are playing, but I’m not sure how much and how soon. For fantasy purposes, it’s not affecting my decision making right now.
Question 25
Hello love the products and access - the cheat sheets are a staple and a great tool assistant at the drafts. One thing is it not possible to include all team te, k, and d’s on sheets? Thanks- go NFL!
RON SEXENIAN (San Diego, CA)
My projections include 50 quarterbacks, 100 running backs, 120 wide receivers, 50 tight ends, 40 kickers and 32 defenses. If you want to see all 392, you need to veer off the pdf format and use the custom rankings version.
Question 26
Thank you so much for the valuable info you pass along to each of these questions. My league is 12 team, auction draft, may holdover 20 bids(key is to draft unknowns for 1 bid and keep them for our maximum 4 years), standard scoring with 3 pts for 300 passing/100 receiving/80 rushing, 15 man roster, must play 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1 K, and 1Flex . My roster: Trubisky, Foles, Kamara, Drake, Lewis, Duke, JuJu, Hogan, Gordon, Samuel, Lutz. Do I keep Foles if Wentz is unable to start the season? Draft both Kelce and Gronk, play one as a Flex? Draft a top-10 RB and top-5 WR? Hope Trubisky can keep me afloat with a strong supporting cast?.
mark meyer ()
There are a lot of good quarterbacks and not many roster spots, with 12 teams. So I wouldn’t be locked in on keeping Foles or Trubisky. How hard would it be to get a couple of guys like Rivers, Smith, Stafford, Mariota and Mahomes? I’d rather have two of those kind of guys. And I wouldn’t be eager to select both Kelce and Gronk. There are some tight ends I like in the late rounds, but you would have closed off that possibility.
Question 27
In an auction league, I have the option to keep Rodgers at $43 (cap is $230). We award 6 points for touchdown passes. According to the custom rankings, Rodgers is worth just under $30. Should I throw the best QB back into the pool and hope to get him for cheaper/let someone take him for higher or just keep him and lock down the position? There will be a lot of high profile/priced players becoming available this year and the extra money would be nice to have.
dan renzi (Moorestown, NJ)
I’m looking for value. I would be very reluctant to pay more than fair market value for anyone. So if Rodgers is worth $30, I would have no interest in spending $43 on him.
Question 28
Can you tell me why Derrius Guice is listed as the #53 pick on my cheat sheet? This concerns me about the rankings
John Sharp (Windsor, CA)
Guice isn’t going to play in 2018. I think you’re referring to the dynasty version of the cheat sheet that appears on page 8 of the Thursday product. That shows how I’d rank the players if selecting not for 2018 but with the ability to keep players for future years. Guice might be a top-20 running back in 2019, so he shows up at 58th among running backs on that page.
Question 29
The commissioner of our keeper league likes to tweak the scoring (I think mostly to mess with me). This year it's: QB - 6 pts for TD, 3 pts for a 65% completion rate, and 3 pts for 300 yds. RB - 6 pts for TD, .5 pts per rush or reception. TE - 6 pts for TD, 1 pt per reception, 1 pt per 20 yds. WR - 6 pts for TD, 1 pt per rush, 2 pts per reception. How would you rank the positions to target in building your offense? And even more specific, what rookies might you target in a keeper league with this scoring?
David Jung (San Francisco, CA)
I don’t understand how it can be a keeper league if the rules keep changing? People are selecting players not just for 2018, but for future seasons. Those decisions will be impacted by the scoring system. I would advocate that you select a scoring system and stick with it. (And in my opinion, adding a bunch of bells and whistles won’t necessarily make it better.) For the rookies, there were three tight ends selected in the first two rounds, and they are all rising on my board – Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki and Dallas Goedert. Hurst should catch a bunch of balls, and I think the Dolphins will use Gesicki in the red zone. Saquon Barkley is definitely the No. 1 player overall. After him, I would probably make Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson the next two rookie running backs for 2018. I haven’t seen anything from any rookie wide receiver yet that was wowed me, but I am thinking more about TreQuan Smith of the Saints. He like the cut of his jib, and he looks like an NFL receiver to me. If I were in a dynasty league, I would strongly consider selecting Smith 2nd among the New Orleans receivers – ahead of Cameron Meredith and Ted Ginn.
Question 30
Our scoring system is TD-only, with bonuses for the distance. QB receive double points for TD runs. RBs get double credit for TD catches. WRs and TEs get double for runs. We've been using this for about 30 years. It was the old Terry Bradshaw “Miller Lite” scoring system. We can't use your customized cheat sheet with this unless a few more categories are added, would that be possible?
JOHN SOKOLOSKY (Wilburton, OK)
That’s the old FFFL scoring system, Pat Hughes and the boys. A blast from the past. Our custom rankings area isn’t set up for such a scoring system right now. Sorry. That would take extensive programming, and I don’t envision it happening soon. Maybe next year. There is, however, a workaround that will allow you to see rankings for each position. Create a scoring system called “FFFL – RB”. In that one, make rushing touchdowns worth 6, with passing and receiving touchdowns worth 12. (I think there are also yardage bonuses, and they can be worked in). That scoring profile provide you with your running back list. Separately, create a scoring system called “FFFL – QB/WR/TE”. In that one, make the rushing touchdowns worth double and all of the other touchdowns worth their usual 6 points. Technically a quarterback could catch a touchdown or a wide receiver could throw a touchdown, but such plays are so rare they’re not statistically significant. This second profile would provide you with the correct rankings for the non-running backs. That should get you on your way. Good luck.