I have watched Miami, Washington and Detroit get shredded on the ground in the preseason. Indianapolis has looked similar the last two weeks, with opponents consistently picking up yards on the ground. Is this just meaningless preseason action between a lot of players who won’t even be starters in the regular season? Or is there some meaning here.
Specifically, if a run defense is really strong in the preseason, do those tend to be the same defenses that also play the run well in the real games? And if a run defense struggles in August, is it more likely to also struggle in the regular season?
We can look at some of the numbers. The data is there to be looked at. (And granted, we’re looking at an eclectic set of numbers – some teams that the preseason more seriously than others.)
Using standard fantasy scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards) I took defenses ranking in the top 25 percent in run defense in the preseason for the last five years. That’s 40 teams – all teams ranking between 1st and 8th in the 2013-2017 seasons.
We then look at the same numbers from the regular season and see that 14 of the 40 (about a third) also ranked in the top 25 percent in run defense. (I’ve got those teams in bold.) Only four defenses, meanwhile, ranked in the bottom 25 percent in run defenses (tagged with dots).
So some correlation there.
GOOD PRESEASON RUN DEFENSES | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pre | Rnk | Yards | TD | Pts | Rnk |
2013 | Detroit | 8.0 | 1 | 1,596 | 10 | 13.7 | 8 |
2013 | San Francisco | 8.8 | 2 | 1,626 | 4 | 11.7 | 3 |
2013 | Houston | 9.1 | 3 | 1,958 | 11 | 16.4 | 18 |
2013 | Seattle | 9.7 | 4 | 1,535 | 11 | 13.7 | 7 |
2013 | Cleveland | 10.3 | 5 | 1,781 | 13 | 16.0 | 15 |
2013 | Kansas City | 10.9 | 6 | 1,923 | 9 | 15.4 | 12 |
2013 | New England | 10.9 | 7 | 1,786 | 11 | 15.3 | 11 |
2013 | NY Giants | 11.4 | 8 | 1,743 | 12 | 15.4 | 13 |
2014 | Washington | 8.4 | 1 | 1,722 | 11 | 14.9 | 13 |
2014 | • NY Giants | 8.8 | 2 | 2,162 | 15 | 19.1 | 29 |
2014 | Baltimore | 9.3 | 3 | 1,412 | 8 | 11.8 | 4 |
2014 | Detroit | 9.7 | 4 | 1,109 | 8 | 9.9 | 1 |
2014 | Denver | 10.2 | 5 | 1,276 | 9 | 11.4 | 3 |
2014 | Miami | 10.4 | 6 | 1,937 | 13 | 17.0 | 22 |
2014 | Buffalo | 11.2 | 7 | 1,703 | 10 | 14.4 | 12 |
2014 | Carolina | 12.0 | 8 | 1,792 | 14 | 16.5 | 19 |
2015 | • Seattle | 11.5 | 7 | 2,020 | 20 | 20.1 | 32 |
2015 | Green Bay | 8.7 | 1 | 1,905 | 13 | 16.8 | 21 |
2015 | Buffalo | 9.3 | 2 | 1,730 | 10 | 14.6 | 15 |
2015 | Washington | 9.7 | 3 | 1,962 | 10 | 16.0 | 19 |
2015 | San Francisco | 10.9 | 4 | 1,304 | 10 | 11.9 | 3 |
2015 | New Orleans | 11.0 | 5 | 1,580 | 8 | 12.9 | 8 |
2015 | Arizona | 11.4 | 6 | 1,460 | 9 | 12.5 | 7 |
2015 | Denver | 11.8 | 8 | 1,337 | 10 | 12.1 | 4 |
2016 | Philadelphia | 6.2 | 1 | 1,652 | 10 | 14.1 | 11 |
2016 | NY Jets | 9.0 | 2 | 1,581 | 11 | 14.0 | 9 |
2016 | Baltimore | 9.8 | 3 | 1,430 | 10 | 12.7 | 5 |
2016 | • Washington | 10.6 | 4 | 1,916 | 19 | 19.1 | 29 |
2016 | Kansas City | 10.8 | 5 | 1,938 | 10 | 15.9 | 18 |
2016 | • Buffalo | 10.9 | 6 | 2,130 | 21 | 21.2 | 31 |
2016 | Tennessee | 11.0 | 7 | 1,413 | 10 | 12.6 | 3 |
2016 | NY Giants | 11.1 | 8 | 1,417 | 10 | 12.6 | 4 |
2017 | Cleveland | 7.3 | 1 | 1,566 | 14 | 15.0 | 14 |
2017 | San Francisco | 8.6 | 2 | 1,824 | 14 | 16.7 | 22 |
2017 | Green Bay | 9.1 | 3 | 1,793 | 10 | 15.0 | 11 |
2017 | Baltimore | 9.7 | 4 | 1,780 | 12 | 15.6 | 16 |
2017 | Chicago | 10.6 | 5 | 1,730 | 10 | 14.6 | 10 |
2017 | Dallas | 11.3 | 6 | 1,664 | 7 | 13.0 | 6 |
2017 | Atlanta | 11.4 | 7 | 1,665 | 9 | 13.8 | 9 |
2017 | NY Jets | 11.5 | 8 | 1,887 | 13 | 16.7 | 23 |
2018 | NY Jets | 7.8 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Baltimore | 8.0 | 2 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Tennessee | 9.1 | 3 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Pittsburgh | 9.5 | 4 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | NY Giants | 10.1 | 5 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | New Orleans | 10.7 | 6 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Chicago | 11.3 | 7 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Oakland | 11.8 | 8 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
This isn’t Holy Grail type stuff, but there’s also some correlation going the other way.
Look at the 40 worst preseason run defenses of the last five years. Only seven of those defenses flipped and ended up putting up top-8 numbers in the real games. But 13 of 40 (again, about a third) continued to struggle in the regular season, ranking no higher than 25th in run defense.
BAD PRESEASON RUN DEFENSES | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pre | Rnk | Yards | TD | Pts | Rnk |
2013 | • Jacksonville | 26.3 | 32 | 2,108 | 20 | 20.7 | 31 |
2013 | Philadelphia | 25.4 | 31 | 1,668 | 12 | 14.9 | 10 |
2013 | Carolina | 20.6 | 30 | 1,391 | 4 | 10.2 | 1 |
2013 | • Tennessee | 20.4 | 29 | 1,795 | 21 | 19.1 | 28 |
2013 | Buffalo | 19.6 | 28 | 2,063 | 10 | 16.6 | 20 |
2013 | Minnesota | 18.9 | 27 | 1,767 | 14 | 16.3 | 17 |
2013 | Miami | 18.4 | 26 | 1,998 | 14 | 17.7 | 23 |
2013 | Oakland | 18.3 | 25 | 1,727 | 15 | 16.4 | 19 |
2014 | Dallas | 27.8 | 32 | 1,650 | 18 | 17.1 | 24 |
2014 | Pittsburgh | 24.1 | 31 | 1,605 | 9 | 13.4 | 9 |
2014 | San Diego | 22.0 | 30 | 1,986 | 11 | 16.5 | 20 |
2014 | Chicago | 21.7 | 29 | 1,803 | 12 | 15.8 | 15 |
2014 | Kansas City | 19.6 | 28 | 2,036 | 4 | 14.2 | 10 |
2014 | NY Jets | 19.5 | 27 | 1,489 | 10 | 13.1 | 8 |
2014 | • Jacksonville | 17.4 | 26 | 2,033 | 15 | 18.3 | 27 |
2014 | • Cincinnati | 16.9 | 25 | 1,861 | 16 | 17.6 | 25 |
2015 | Baltimore | 23.4 | 32 | 1,661 | 10 | 14.1 | 13 |
2015 | Pittsburgh | 21.7 | 31 | 1,459 | 6 | 11.4 | 2 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 18.7 | 30 | 1,606 | 12 | 14.5 | 14 |
2015 | New England | 18.6 | 29 | 2,071 | 12 | 17.4 | 24 |
2015 | Philadelphia | 18.6 | 28 | 2,153 | 10 | 17.2 | 23 |
2015 | Houston | 17.4 | 27 | 1,597 | 10 | 13.7 | 11 |
2015 | • Indianapolis | 17.4 | 26 | 1,952 | 14 | 17.5 | 25 |
2015 | • Dallas | 17.3 | 25 | 1,934 | 16 | 18.1 | 30 |
2016 | San Diego | 26.9 | 32 | 1,567 | 20 | 17.3 | 23 |
2016 | • Oakland | 24.9 | 31 | 1,881 | 18 | 18.5 | 25 |
2016 | • Miami | 22.7 | 30 | 2,247 | 12 | 18.5 | 26 |
2016 | • Cleveland | 21.1 | 29 | 2,283 | 18 | 21.0 | 30 |
2016 | • Denver | 18.3 | 28 | 2,085 | 15 | 18.7 | 27 |
2016 | Dallas | 18.2 | 27 | 1,336 | 9 | 11.7 | 2 |
2016 | • Seattle | 17.6 | 26 | 2,654 | 25 | 26.0 | 32 |
2016 | Jacksonville | 17.2 | 25 | 1,703 | 17 | 17.0 | 21 |
2017 | Carolina | 25.4 | 32 | 1,409 | 7 | 11.4 | 3 |
2017 | LA Chargers | 24.4 | 31 | 2,098 | 11 | 17.2 | 24 |
2017 | New Orleans | 22.7 | 30 | 1,836 | 6 | 13.7 | 8 |
2017 | • Detroit | 19.5 | 29 | 1,800 | 18 | 18.0 | 29 |
2017 | Miami | 18.4 | 28 | 1,768 | 14 | 16.3 | 20 |
2017 | Jacksonville | 16.4 | 27 | 1,860 | 9 | 15.0 | 12 |
2017 | Denver | 16.3 | 26 | 1,430 | 9 | 12.3 | 5 |
2017 | • Washington | 15.9 | 25 | 2,146 | 13 | 18.3 | 31 |
2018 | Miami | 31.4 | 32 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Washington | 21.7 | 31 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Jacksonville | 19.1 | 30 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Detroit | 18.7 | 29 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Minnesota | 18.4 | 28 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Cincinnati | 18.1 | 27 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Dallas | 17.9 | 26 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2018 | Green Bay | 17.9 | 25 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Collectively as a group, the 40 best run defenses of the last five years in the regular season allowed an average of 1,694 rushing yards, with 11.2 TD runs. The 40 worst run defenses allowed 1,838 yards on average, with 12.9 TDs.
—Ian Allan