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Team offensive projections

Final projections for scoring, passing and rushing

I just put the finishing touches on the rankings for the midweek. They’ll be showing up in your email box soon. The season starts in just over 5 hours, so these will be the last preseason rankings of the year.

The way I do it, I’ve got all of the individual rankings and projections tied to the performance of the team. That is, if Ben Roethlisberger is going to average 280 passing yards per game, then Pittsburgh’s various pass catchers have to add up to 280 yards. You can’t take Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washingotn, Vance McDonald and the rest, add them up and get 315 yards.

In these final projections, I’ve got the Patriots, Packers and Saints projecting to score the most points. On my board, I’ve got them all averaging about 3 TDs per game.

I’ve got the Bills and Jets projecting to find the end zone the least, with three other offenses averaging just under 2 TDs per week – Cardinals, Dolphins, Broncos.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
New England31.416.848.2
Green Bay35.811.847.7
New Orleans28.517.946.4
LA Rams28.316.544.8
Pittsburgh31.212.844.0
LA Chargers29.411.440.8
Philadelphia28.511.840.3
Minnesota25.013.037.9
Houston28.88.837.6
Atlanta25.012.337.3
Seattle26.211.037.3
Kansas City24.612.337.0
Tampa Bay28.38.637.0
Carolina21.615.236.8
Baltimore23.712.336.0
NY Giants24.211.836.0
Dallas20.015.835.8
Jacksonville18.716.835.5
San Francisco23.212.035.2
Oakland23.811.034.9
Cincinnati25.19.434.6
Tennessee22.412.234.6
Washington24.210.434.6
Indianapolis24.89.634.4
Detroit24.69.634.2
Chicago21.111.632.7
Cleveland21.410.932.3
Denver21.610.231.8
Miami23.28.531.7
Arizona20.311.031.4
NY Jets18.410.629.0
Buffalo17.19.826.9

For rushing production, I’ve got the Jaguars, Cowboys, Saints and Panthers as the leaders. I expect the Lions, Bucs, Bengals and Colts to have the worst rushing offenses.

On this chart, I’ve got them ordered by expected fantasy points, with 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDPoints
Jacksonville1351.0519.8
Dallas130.9918.9
New Orleans1181.1218.5
Carolina125.9518.2
New England1151.0517.8
LA Rams1121.0317.4
Minnesota112.8116.1
Atlanta114.7716.0
Seattle118.6915.9
Philadelphia115.7415.9
Kansas City113.7715.9
Baltimore112.7715.8
Tennessee112.7615.8
Green Bay112.7415.6
Pittsburgh106.8015.4
Cleveland113.6815.4
San Francisco108.7515.3
Chicago108.7315.2
Oakland107.6914.8
NY Jets108.6614.8
LA Chargers104.7114.7
Arizona105.6914.6
NY Giants102.7414.6
Denver106.6414.4
Houston107.5514.0
Washington101.6514.0
Buffalo102.6113.9
Miami105.5313.7
Indianapolis96.6013.2
Cincinnati95.5913.0
Tampa Bay95.5412.7
Detroit90.6012.6

For passing production, I’ve got four veteran quarterbacks leading the way – Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers.

The three teams at the bottom all have lesser or unsettled quarterback situations – Bills, Jets, Jaguars.

PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDPoints
Green Bay2732.2440.7
New England2871.9640.5
Pittsburgh2821.9539.9
LA Chargers2831.8439.3
Tampa Bay2831.7738.9
New Orleans2781.7838.5
Houston2661.8037.4
LA Rams2531.7735.9
Atlanta2631.5635.7
Philadelphia2481.7835.5
Detroit2611.5435.3
Seattle2551.6435.3
Washington2621.5135.3
Indianapolis2571.5535.0
San Francisco2601.4534.7
Minnesota2511.5634.5
Kansas City2521.5434.4
Cincinnati2481.5734.2
NY Giants2461.5133.7
Oakland2421.4933.1
Baltimore2401.4832.9
Miami2321.4531.9
Tennessee2351.4031.9
Denver2321.3531.3
Carolina2281.3530.9
Chicago2251.3230.4
Cleveland2231.3430.3
Arizona2241.2730.0
Dallas2221.2529.7
Jacksonville2181.1728.8
NY Jets2101.1527.9
Buffalo2031.0726.7

—Ian Allan

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