It’s early. Things probably will settle down – defenses will make adjustments. But I notice that so far passing is up and rushing is down.
The passing numbers have been crazy, with the NFL looking more like the Big 12. And not just Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick. NFL teams so far are averaging 266 passing yards per game. That’s 26 more per game than last year (when there were a lot of quarterback injuries).
Teams are on pace to average 28.5 touchdown passes this year. That’s 2 more than any other season in NFL history. For fantasy purposes, if you’re not fielding a quarterback who’ll probably throw 2 TDs and pass for 270-plus yards, you’re probably losing ground at the position.
AVERAGE PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Yards | TD | Points |
2002 | 3,631 | 21.7 | 493.3 |
2003 | 3,421 | 20.4 | 464.7 |
2004 | 3,604 | 22.9 | 497.7 |
2005 | 3,491 | 20.1 | 469.9 |
2006 | 3,509 | 20.3 | 472.4 |
2007 | 3,652 | 22.5 | 500.2 |
2008 | 3,586 | 20.2 | 479.8 |
2009 | 3,716 | 22.2 | 504.7 |
2010 | 3,780 | 23.5 | 518.8 |
2011 | 3,917 | 23.3 | 531.3 |
2012 | 3,936 | 23.7 | 535.5 |
2013 | 4,037 | 25.1 | 554.4 |
2014 | 3,789 | 25.2 | 530.2 |
2015 | 4,147 | 26.3 | 572.5 |
2016 | 4,090 | 24.6 | 556.3 |
2017 | 3,834 | 23.2 | 522.3 |
2018 | 4,251 | 28.5 | 596.1 |
Rushing production, meanwhile, continues to decline. Teams right now are averaging less than 105 yards per game, the lowest of the fantasy football era. That’s 5 yards short of what we’ve seen in recent seasons (and 10 yards short of what it used to be every year).
TD runs are also down. Teams right now are on pace to average 11.5 rushing touchdowns for the year.
It’s a passing league – now more than ever.
AVERAGE RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Yards | TD | Points |
2002 | 1,858 | 14.4 | 272.1 |
2003 | 1,886 | 13.3 | 268.6 |
2004 | 1,866 | 13.0 | 264.6 |
2005 | 1,799 | 13.5 | 260.8 |
2006 | 1,877 | 13.3 | 267.2 |
2007 | 1,775 | 12.1 | 249.8 |
2008 | 1,855 | 14.9 | 274.8 |
2009 | 1,867 | 13.4 | 267.1 |
2010 | 1,831 | 12.5 | 258.0 |
2011 | 1,874 | 12.5 | 262.4 |
2012 | 1,855 | 12.5 | 260.7 |
2013 | 1,806 | 12.8 | 257.5 |
2014 | 1,781 | 11.9 | 249.4 |
2015 | 1,741 | 11.4 | 242.6 |
2016 | 1,743 | 13.8 | 257.3 |
2017 | 1,755 | 11.9 | 246.8 |
2018 | 1,674 | 11.5 | 236.4 |
—Ian Allan