CINCINNATI (at Carolina)
The Bengals just put up 34 points against a seemingly good Baltimore defense last week, while the Panthers were taken apart in Atlanta. But this game should be different. Carolina ...
has a good defense, and it tends to play a lot better at home (where it completely shut down Dallas in Week 1). After a fast start, meanwhile, Cincinnati bogged down for most of the second half against the Ravens. So we're figuring 2-3 TDs is the right estimate, with 2 TDs more likely. ... Joe Mixon is out for 2-3 games, so it will be Giovani Bernard at tailback. That's not necessarily a downgrade. ...
This report is taken from today's Week 3 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
. .. Bernard is more experienced, similarly good as a pass catcher and averaged almost a yard more per carry last year. He's not as big, but Bernard had the team's last 100-yard rushing game -- 116 yards against Detroit last December. He's unlikely to make a big impact as a runner. Cincinnati has a below-average running game (that's not the focus of their offense), while Carolina is really tough up front. Tevin Coleman just ran for 107 yards against this defense, but the Panthers bottled up Ezekiel Elliott pretty well in Week 1 and ranked 3rd in run defense last year. Bernard's best value is in a PPR format. The Bengals like hitting their running backs with dumpoff balls in the flat. Bernard and Mixon have caught 11 passes in the first two games, and they combined for 73 catches a year ago. Good chance that Bernard catches 5 balls. ... This looks like a surprisingly good matchup for Andy Dalton -- definitely above-average for yards. Carolina tends to stuff the run, forcing teams to pass. They were able to hold Dak Prescott to only 170 yards back in Week 1, of course, but Matt Ryan hit them for 272 yards and 2 TDs on Sunday. Last year, the Panthers allowed an average of 272 passing yards in their last seven home games, with 16 touchdowns. (That's setting aside their home opener against the Bills, who used more of a run-oriented scheme.)
| Carolina hosting QB, 2017 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Yards | TD |
| Saints | 220 | 3 |
| Eagles | 222 | 3 |
| Falcons | 313 | 2 |
| Dolphins | 213 | 2 |
| Vikings | 280 | 2 |
| Packers | 290 | 3 |
| Bucs | 367 | 1 |
Dalton is playing well enough that 280 yards and 2 TDs is definitely possible. In the 2017 season, Carolina allowed 25 TD passes versus only 7 TD runs. ... The passing game checks out fine, so we'll sign off on Cincinnati's wide receivers. A.J. Green is on top of his game right now, with 11 catches for 161 yards and 4 TDs in the first two weeks. He might finish the year with top-5 receiving numbers, and he's facing a defense that tends to force opponents to pass. With John Ross, he'll hit on a few long touchdowns this season, but he's more of a hit-or-miss option, with the misses more common. He's caught 2 passes for 11 yards in the first two weeks. Tyler Boyd seems to have a better rapport with Dalton. Boyd comes off the best game of his career -- 6 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown in the win over Baltimore. ... Tyler Eifert was targeted in the end zone last week. That's progress. But he doesn't appear to be the same receiving threat he's been in the past. He's been plagued by injuries, so they're trying to preserve him by having him share time with two other tight ends, Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah. They're both caught passes in both games. Combined, Kroft and Uzomah have more catches and yards than Eifert so far. In the past, Eifert has been a top-5 tight end when healthy. Nowadays, he looks more like a top-20 tight end when healthy. ... Randy Bullock has scored 10 points in each of his first two games, but we're expecting he'll dip to below average this week. The game's in Charlotte, and the Panthers look like they'll have one of the league's better defenses. ... The Bengals Defense has a top-10 pass rush. It had 41 sacks last year, and it's got 6 in the first two weeks. It gets to work against an offensive line missing both of its tackles. But Cam Newton is hard to get on the ground, with his size and mobility. Dallas has a better pass rush than Cincinnati and sacked him 3 times in Week 1. On Sunday, Newton got sacked only twice at Atlanta. He's thrown only 1 pick this year, and it came on a throw that bounced off his receiver's hands.