SAN FRANCISCO (at Green Bay)
The 49ers are a lesser team, but they still have Kyle Shanahan in their corner, giving them some ability to cobble together middle-of-the-pack numbers. The offense has scored 11 touchdowns in its last four games -- an above average 2.75 per week. But we're expecting close to ...
... 2 TDs this week (probably bottom-10 numbers). Green Bay's defense has allowed 4 TDs in three different games, making it seem like a leaky group, but it's better than that. It allowed only 264 total yards, for example, in the loss at Detroit (undermined by two special teams breakdowns). And it's been very good at Lambeau, allowing only 1 touchdown against Chicago and shutting out Buffalo. It nearly held the Vikings to only 2 TDs, but they were able to hit on a 75-yard haymaker late, then put together another touchdown drive after the bizarre call against Clay Matthews. Probably just 2 TDs for the 49ers. ... Matt Breida left the Arizona game with a sprained ankle. It's not a high ankle sprain, so he hasn't yet been officially ruled out, but unlikely that he's active ...
This report is taken from today's Week 6 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
... and he'll be limited if he's in uniform. It will be Alfred Morris in a workhorse role this week. He doesn't have much speed or elusiveness; he's averaging only 3.7 per attempt. But he's a seasoned pro, and he'll bang it between the tackles. And Kyle Shanahan knows something about putting together running game. The 49ers rank 4th in rushing so far, averaging 136 yards per game. Combined, Morris and Breida have averaged 119 rushing and 31 receiving yards, with 3 TDs. Now it's pretty much Morris' gig, with Raheem Mostert getting just a few change-of-pace carries. Green Bay ranks only 15th in run defense and had problems with a couple of other big, Morris-type runners -- Jordan Howard and Adrian Peterson. So we're thinking Morris has some chance at about 80-plus rushing and 15 receiving yards. ... C.J. Beathard is a lesser quarterback. Most teams wouldn't want him as their backup. He's turned the ball over 6 times in his two starts. But Beathard has a fantasy-friendly playing style. He's throwing it plenty, and he's also an above-average runner. He's scored 4 rushing touchdowns in the seven games he's started as a pro. He put up top-15 per-game numbers last year -- better than half of the 12 quarterbacks who started in the postseason. That's standard scoring. And he's been even better this year, passing for 298 and 349 yards in his starts, with 2 TDs each week. So despite his limitations, there's some chance he'll finish with better numbers than a dozen other starting quarterbacks this week. We would say this with more confidence if the Packers hadn't just limited Matthew Stafford to 183 passing yards. And Green Bay has been tougher at home, with both Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Allen passing for fewer than 175 yards. Kirk Cousins passed for 425 yards and 4 TDs, but he's in a different class as a passer. A tough player to grade, but we'll put Beathard down for 240 yards and 1-2 TDs (with 1 more likely). ... We're slotting the pass catchers a little lower than usual, but there is a little bit of pep in this offense. George Kittle is on pace to finish the season with 74 catches for 1,277 yards. He's caught only one touchdown, but he should rank among the top 10 tight ends in yards in a lot of weeks. Pierre Garcon is slow but has finished with 47-57 yards in three of his last four games. Marquise Goodwin has great deep speed and should finally be 100 percent after suffering a quad injury in the opener. But C.J. Beathard hasn't shown he's going to be anywhere near as good as Jimmy Garoppolo at delivering deep balls. So far San Francisco's 8 TDs passes have been thrown to seven different players, with only lightly-used reserve Kendrick Bourne getting in the end zone twice. ... Robbie Gould led the league in kicking points in the second half of last year and knocked in 38 in his first four games. But with the injuries piling up, the 49ers look like a bottom-10 team now. He got shut out at home by Arizona last week. The Packers have issues they're working out, but their defense has been decent at time, including allowing only 3 kicking points in its last two games at home. ... The 49ers Defense faces an opponent that's allowed 18 sacks -- over 3 per game. So there's that. But San Francisco doesn't look like the kind of team that can take advantage; it's averaging fewer than 2 sacks per game. And the interception potential is the worst in the league this week (the 49ers have only one interception, while Aaron Rodgers has thrown only one).