DALLAS (at Washington)
The Cowboys put up a season-high 40 points last week, but we're expecting a return to bottom-10 production this week. Their offense has been struggling, with just 7 TDs in its other five games, and Washington's defense has been ...
... generally solid. New Orleans jacked them for 43, of course, but that's one of the true elite offenses. Washington has allowed only 8 TDs in its other four games. About 2 TDs seems like the right estimate. Green Bay and Carolina are both better offensively than the Cowboys, and they scored 2 TDs in their games in this stadium. The Cowboys have a good track record against this opponent, at least -- 4-0 the last two years, with 27, 31, 33 and 38 points. But those were different teams in different years. This Washington defense is better. Even with the Saints debacle, Washington ranks 8th in scoring defense. ... Dak Prescott probably will be a bottom-5 passer. He doesn't ...
This report is taken from today's Week 7 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... seem to have the accuracy or decision-making ability right now. He's averaging only 191 passing yards per game, and he's thrown only 7 TDs. Dipping back into last year, he's thrown 14 TDs in his last 16 games. That's kind of what he is, and here he's running into a top-10 pass defense. If Prescott is to post middle-of-the-pack numbers, it will be fueled by his mobility. With the offense stalled, they turned to his rushing to get things going last week, and he responded with a career-high 82 yards, with a touchdown. He averaged 24 rushing yards in his first two games. Cam Newton has some Prescott in his game, and he ran for 43 yards against this defense last week. It's reasonable to expect another 30-40 rushing yards out of Prescott. Dallas won both Washington games easily last year, but Prescott passed for only 143 and 102 yards in those games, with 2 TDs. (He's run for 89 yards in four career starts against Washington, with 2 TDs.) ... Ezekiel Elliott is hamstrung by playing on one of the league's worst offenses. The Cowboys have scored more than 2 TDs only once all year, making it hard for him to find the end zone. But he's still one of the league's best running backs, and they got the offensive line going some last week. Overall he's averaging 98 rushing and 28 receiving yards, with 4 TDs in six weeks. He ran for 150 yards and 2 TDs in his only game against Washington last year, but that was a completely different defense. Washington ranked last against the run last year. This year they've got the two big Alabama tackles in the middle and rank 6th in run defense, allowing 44 fewer yards per game. Elliott has averaged 83 rushing yards in his three games on the road this year, with just 1 TD. In general you never bench a player of his ilk, but good chance a number of lesser runners finish with better stats. ... We're not excited about any of the receivers. Cole Beasley at least caught 9 passes for 101 yards and 2 TDs last week (against the league's best pass defense, no less). So there's some PPR value there. But Beasley averaged only 3 catches and 38 yards in his other five games, with no touchdowns. Good chance he drops down to about 4-5 catches this week. Michael Gallup and Allen Hurns should be the other main wide receivers. They played a lot more last week than Deonte Thompson, and Tavon Austin has a groin injury. But neither Gallup not Hurns this year has even played his way onto the radar. ... Geoff Swaim is a lesser tight end. He's caught 16 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown in six games. That gets him ahead of the starters on a few teams, at least, but unlikely to put up noteworthy numbers. ... Brett Maher has scored double-digit points three games in a row, but he should cool off this week. Dallas isn't as good on the road, and Washington has been sound defensively outside of the blowout loss at New Orleans. Washington has allowed only 18 kicking points in five games (with no kicker scoring more than 5 against them). ... The Cowboys Defense should finish above-average in sacks. After six weeks, only four teams have more. Dallas is averaging 3 per game, while Alex Smith will hold it at times -- he's taken 12 in five starts. But Dallas grades out in the bottom half for turnovers. Smith has long been one of league's most careful quarterbacks, reluctant to attempt risky throws. He threw 33 interceptions and lost 9 fumbles in his 76 starts in Kansas City and is still the same player -- 2 picks and 1 fumble in his first five games in Washington. Dallas hasn't had any ball-hawking types in its secondary for years: just 8, 9 and 10 interceptions the last three years, and just 2 in six games so far this season.