NEW ENGLAND (at Buffalo)
The Patriots look like a safe choice to win this game, but they won't necessarily put up big numbers. They've got a lot of injuries, and Buffalo's defense has been solid at times. Only three teams have allowed fewer yards. The Colts just hit them for 37 points, but ...
... Buffalo's defense allowed only 4 TDs in its previous four games. Three of those were on the road against quarterbacks with some ability -- Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson. When New England won at Buffalo last year, the offense had a ho-hum game -- 2 TDs and 3 field goals in a 23-3 win. This could be a similar kind of game. ... Sony Michel is week-to-week with a knee injury. It will need to be confirmed later in the week, but he's very unlikely for this game. With our projections, we're assuming he won't play, so it will be James White and Kenjon Barner holding down the fort in the backfield. White is more of a third-down back, while Barner should assume ...
This report is taken from today's Week 8 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... more of the traditional running duties. They both got double-digit carries at Chicago and averaged 3.6 yards per attempt. When New England won at Buffalo last year, it was with Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead running for 170 yards and 2 TDs. In the other Bills game, Lewis ran for 129 yards and 2 TDs. But that kind of rushing production looks way out of reach. With Michel out, the Patriots don't have that kind of running game. But serviceable, middle-of-the-pack rushing production is possible. The Bills rank 16th against the run, but this is probably more accurately a bottom-10 run defense. The Colts just ran for 220 yards against them, and the Packers (another team with a modest ground game) went for 141. The two teams Buffalo has held under 100 both can't run it much at all (Minnesota, Houston). And the Bills might invite the Patriots to run the ball by dropping extra people into coverage. Those scouring the waiver wire for a Week 8 running back should be thinking about Barner. He might run for about 70 yards, and he'll probably be the back of choice in goal-line situations. White should finish with better overall numbers, given the way he's used in the passing game. White is on pace for 1,136 total yards, and he's scored 7 TDs. ... Tom Brady should be busier than usual. He averaged only 241 yards and 1 TD in the Buffalo games last year, when the Patriots emphasized the run, but that won't be possible this time. He'll be passing plenty, putting him in play for 300 yards and 2-3 TDs. The Bills rank 4th against the pass, but they don't seem to be that good. Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck threw 10 TDs against them. None finished with more than 260 yards, but they would have gone for a lot more if their teams had needed it. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers both went over 295 yards against this defense, albeit with just 1 TD each. It's not a cherry matchup for Brady, but he should be fine. ... Rob Gronkowski missed the Chicago game when his back acted up the day before the game. An early report suggests he should play. He could be a key part of the offense. New England didn't put up good passing numbers against Buffalo last year, yet Gronkowski caught 14 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown in those two games. ... Given the issues with the running game, we're ranking the wide receivers a little higher than usual. Julian Edelman has averaged 5 catches for 49 yards since returning, with 2 TDs in three games; he'll probably catch the most passes, but he works primarily short routes. Both Josh Gordon and Chris Hogan should also be on the field plenty. They don't catch as many passes, but they're more likely to get downfield for long receptions. Gordon has caught 11 passes for 192 yards in the last three games; just one touchdown, but he's come close to scoring two weeks in a row. Hogan (former Bill) has caught 10 passes for 141 yards in the last two games. Just 2 TDs all year, and they both came in the game where it seemed the most unlikely to catch a touchdown -- at Jacksonville. With Edelman back and Gordon emerging, Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett haven't played much as wide receivers the last three weeks. ... Stephen Gostkowski hasn't been a difference maker this year. He knocked in 19 points against Kansas City, but he's averaged only 8 in his other six games -- good, but not up to his usual standards. But we're putting him in the top 5 this week. New England's offense is starting to find its groove, and it's facing a lesser opponent this week. Gostkowski has scored double-digit points in three straight against this opponent. ... It makes sense to rank the Patriots Defense higher than usual. Buffalo has a lesser offensive line and inadequate quarterbacking. Derek Anderson will start again, and he served up 3 interceptions and a fumble at Indianapolis (albeit with only 2 sacks -- an improvement over earlier in the year with Josh Allen). The Patriots don't have a great pass rush (just 9 sacks all year) but have picked off 10 passes, making this on paper the strongest interception matchup for the week. And New England scored 2 TDs on special teams on Sunday. Makes sense to slot this group as a Week 8 possibility.