NEW ENGLAND (at NYJ)
We're putting the Patriots down for above-average numbers, but we're not expecting top-5 production this week. New York's defense is below-average, but it's not a lesser, punching-bag unit. And New England hasn't ...

... been good on the road. They struck quickly in Chicago, impressively finishing with 38 points (including 2 touchdowns on special teams), but the offense has scored only 5 touchdowns in last four other games away from Foxborough, losing three of them by double-digits. The Patriots typically haven't put up big numbers in this building. They're 3-1 in their last four road games against the Jets, but without big offensive numbers in any of them -- 17-24 points in each of those games. ... We'll call it an average matchup for the running game. The Jets rank 21st in run defense, and their two worst games ...

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... have both come recently. They allowed 179 rushing yards and a touchdown at Chicago, and they let the 2-7 Bills come into MetLife in Week 10 and run for 212 yards and 2 TDs. So some chance New England gets its run game going. But that hasn't been happening recently, and it hasn't tended to happen on the road. The Patriots in their five road games have run for only 82, 89, 108, 76 and 40 yards, with 2 rushing touchdowns. Sony Michel presumably is close to full strength now, at least. He missed two games, then played in a lesser role against the Titans. Prior to his knee injury, Michael ran for 112, 98 and 106 yards in his last three full games, with 4 TDs. He's not much of a factor in the passing game. James White will play plenty, but he's more of a third-down back than a running back. He's averaged 23 rushing and 56 receiving yards, with 10 TDs. Cordarrelle Patterson might get a few change-of-pace carries. Of the 6 TDs the Patriots have scored in their last three games, all but one has come on a run. The Jets have allowed an average of 120 rushing yards, with 9 TD runs in 10 games. ... We're putting a modest grade on Tom Brady. This team doesn't appear to be great, and it's tended to struggle on the road. Brady has put up above-average numbers in only one of his five road games this year, surprising with 277 yards and 3 TDs at Chicago. Other than that game, he's thrown only 2 TDs in his last four games combined. He's had a bye week to prepare, of course, and the defense he's facing hasn't been anything special. In their last nine games, the Jets have allowed at least 2 TD passes to every opponent except the Browns and Dolphins -- Brock Osweiler in one game, and Baker Mayfield coming off the bench in his first game in the other. But Brady hasn't tend to play well in this stadium against this opponent. Better Patriots teams have had to pull out 24-17 and 22-17 wins the last two years. Brady has averaged only 237 yards in his last five games against the Jets in this stadium, with 6 TDs and 4 interceptions. With him not being a factor at all as a runner, we're putting some lesser quarterbacks ahead of him. ... We're putting the pass catchers a little lower than usual. We're just not confident in the passing game right now. Rob Gronkowski should play, at least, and he'll help. But he hasn't seemed to be quite the difference-maker he's been in the past. He's lost some speed and athleticism -- he's not coming up with as many catches in contested situations, and they're not featuring him around the goal line. Gronkowski has averaged 54 yards in his last six games, with no touchdowns. He's missed three games, and when he's been playing has caught only 1 of the team's 13 TD passes. Julian Edelman left the last game with an ankle injury but should be ready. He's averaged 71 yards in his six games, with 2 TDs. Josh Gordon doesn't catch as many passes but is more of a downfield weapon; he's averaged 74 yards in those six games, also with 2 TDs. Chris Hogan is logging starter minutes but hasn't been a factor recently -- no catches in his last two games. Tom Brady said last week that he needs to do a better job of spreading the ball around, so perhaps he'll use Hogan more on Sunday. ... We're slotting Stephen Gostkowski as one of the top half-dozen kickers, but he doesn't look like a franchise-type difference maker this week. The Patriots haven't been as good on the road this year, and they've also had some problems in this building. In their last four road games against the Jets, Gostkowski has scored only 5, 8, 10 and 6 points. ... The Patriots Defense is light on talent up front; it has only 15 sacks all year -- 3rd-fewest in the league. But it's worth some consideration this week. Their secondary has been able to come up with 11 interceptions, while the Jets have been plagued by errors all year. They've taken a below-average 24 sacks, and they've thrown 16 interceptions (tying for 2nd-most in the league). They might have Josh McCown filling in at quarterback, and he was pretty awful in his last start, with 3 sacks and 2 picks.