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Cam on the rise

Closing schedule favors Newton, Panthers

If you’re a fan of strength of schedule, Cam Newton makes a lot of sense as a key late-season player. Carolina’s closing schedule looks unusually favorable.

Let’s set aside Week 17. Most fantasy leagues are shuttered at that time. Instead, look at just the next four weeks for each team. The defenses playing Carolina have allowed an average of 3.23 touchdowns per game, most in the league. That’s offensive touchdowns (setting aside returns of kicks and takeaways).

Three other teams play their next four games against defenses allowing an average of 3 TDs per game: Broncos, Ravens, Cardinals.

Teams with hard schedules over the next four weeks: Colts, Dolphins, Giants and Washington. I’m not saying anybody should release Andrew Luck. How a player is performing needs to be factored in. But Indianapolis has a harder closing schedule.

I’ve added a column on this one, showing points. Those are NFL points, including field goals, safeties, extra points, etc. – all NFL points. By straight points, Denver would have the easiest schedule, while the Giants would have the hardest.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Weeks 13-16)
TeamTDRTDPOTDPoints
Carolina1.182.053.2326.9
Denver1.072.073.1428.4
Baltimore1.051.983.0226.3
Arizona.892.113.0026.0
Oakland.981.952.9326.0
Cleveland.802.022.8225.1
LA Chargers.981.842.8224.7
New Orleans.841.982.8224.6
Dallas.931.862.8025.5
Green Bay.981.802.8024.8
Chicago.841.862.7325.7
Buffalo.731.952.7025.0
Cincinnati.891.802.6824.6
Atlanta.951.702.6623.6
Minnesota.701.932.6424.2
Seattle.801.822.6125.6
Houston.951.642.6124.8
Pittsburgh.701.912.6123.9
LA Rams.841.732.5723.8
Detroit.951.592.5524.8
Tennessee.911.522.4823.7
Tampa Bay.751.732.4821.6
Jacksonville.771.662.4322.9
Kansas City.751.682.4322.4
New England.801.612.4123.9
Philadelphia.661.752.4121.5
San Francisco.681.702.3921.6
NY Jets.801.572.3622.4
Washington.861.432.3222.9
NY Giants.661.612.2721.3
Miami.751.502.2523.0
Indianapolis.751.452.2322.0

If we look at passing, our guy Cam Newton (who’s playing really well anyway) again bubbles to the surface. His next four games against against defenses that are currently allowing an average of 295 passing yards and 2.05 TD passes per game. Using standard fantasy scoring, that comes out No. 1.

Three of the other teams in the top 5 have lesser passing offenses that everyone should be leery off – Raiders, Ravens and Cowboys. The Browns also seem to have an easy schedule.

Hardest passing schedules: Dolphins, Colts, Jets, Lions.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 13-16)
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Carolina2952.0541.7
Oakland2891.9540.6
Baltimore2861.9840.4
Cleveland2802.0240.1
Dallas2891.8640.1
Denver2772.0740.1
Arizona2682.1139.5
New Orleans2671.9838.6
Buffalo2681.9538.5
LA Chargers2731.8438.3
Pittsburgh2691.9138.3
Minnesota2661.9338.1
Seattle2721.8238.1
Houston2801.6437.9
Cincinnati2681.8037.6
Chicago2631.8637.5
Philadelphia2671.7537.2
Green Bay2611.8036.9
Tampa Bay2631.7336.7
LA Rams2621.7336.6
Jacksonville2651.6636.5
San Francisco2621.7036.4
NY Giants2611.6135.8
Atlanta2481.7035.1
Tennessee2561.5234.7
Kansas City2411.6834.2
Washington2551.4334.1
New England2431.6133.9
Detroit2421.5933.8
NY Jets2421.5733.6
Indianapolis2491.4533.6
Miami2381.5032.8

For rushing production, the Broncos, Panthers and Bengals project to play the easiest schedules for the next four weeks. Phillip Lindsay, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon. Think about these guys.

Hardest rushing schedules (at least on paper) belong to Bucs, Giants and Eagles. Saquon Barkley has been great and Josh Adams has been coming on, but scheduling works against them. (Especially Adams, since he’s more dependent on rushing production).

The numbers here show only rushing – run yards and TD runs (not pass-catching by running backs).

The “points” is the average per-game fantasy total (using standard scoring).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 13-16)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Denver1331.0719.7
Carolina1111.1818.2
Cincinnati128.8918.2
Oakland122.9818.1
Baltimore1161.0517.9
Green Bay119.9817.8
Houston118.9517.5
Detroit117.9517.5
Arizona121.8917.4
LA Chargers115.9817.3
Tennessee117.9117.2
Atlanta114.9517.1
Chicago118.8416.8
Washington115.8616.7
Buffalo123.7316.7
Minnesota122.7016.4
Cleveland116.8016.4
Kansas City118.7516.3
Jacksonville116.7716.2
LA Rams112.8416.2
NY Jets112.8016.0
New England112.8015.9
Dallas100.9315.6
Indianapolis108.7515.3
New Orleans102.8415.3
San Francisco112.6815.3
Pittsburgh110.7015.2
Seattle104.8015.2
Miami107.7515.2
Philadelphia103.6614.2
NY Giants101.6614.1
Tampa Bay89.7513.4

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index